Ballot Type: Human
Submitted: Oct. 17, 2023, 9:39 a.m.
Overall Rationale: You’ll notice that this week that there was some serious variance in my rankings, with teams like Texas and Utah experiencing quite dramatic jumps compared to what they did, and some teams were adjusted downwards despite not doing much wrong. This is because I finally had some time this week to sit down and reanalyze my early-season assumptions on how good a team was outside of cursory glances at a team’s record (which is why undefeated teams were at the top, for example) and relative strength of their conference/schedule. While I had hoped to do this more thoroughly in weeks prior (as seen in my generalized methodology statement below), Father Time waits for no man and has completely defeated my efforts to do so. As a result, I needed to make some more drastic alterations this week to account for that. This wasn’t necessarily to fall more in line with voters (though that appears to have happened), but it was to be more consistent in how I approach teams/ranks in general. Hopefully, this doesn’t backfire. As a reminder, my methodology is pretty simple; I reward teams who win and drop teams who lose. I’m a big fan of teams who prove themselves against more elite competition and don’t care much for cupcake games, except when there’s something that the cupcake-eater does that merits additional attention. Pretty standard stuff. I’m also a really big fan of poll fluidity and of non-P5 teams, and so my poll may represent overreactions to a given Week’s results, especially early on. Pre-season rankings are nothing but guesswork and failed expectations, anyway. I also try to account for how well teams are doing before and after they play one another, and if there’s anything that’s changed about a team. A lot of it does come down to the dreaded eye test and grinding out wins vs domination, but again, nothing unique. This does mean that I tend to rank pretty harshly by record early on; you’ll see what I mean. || Teams Dropping Out: #19 Washington State Cougars [4-2] #20 Wyoming Cowboys [5-2] #22 Kansas Jayhawks [5-2] #25 Maryland Terrapins [5-2] || Honorable Mentions: Tennessee Volunteers [5-1] LSU Tigers [5-2] Clemson Tigers [4-2] Miami (OH) RedHawks [6-1] Toledo Rockets [6-1] Arizona Wildcats [4-3]
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
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(-) [6-0] Credentials: 2022 B1G East 3rd Place, Rose Bowl Champs, Final AP Rank: #7 [11-2] || 2023 Results So Far: 38-15 vs West Virginia [4-2], 63-7 vs Delaware [FCS, 5-1], 30-13 @ Illinois [3-4], 31-0 vs Iowa [6-1], 41-13 @ Northwestern [3-3], 63-0 vs UMass [1-7] |
2 |
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(-) [6-0] Credentials: 2022 B1G East Runners-Up, CFP Participant, Final AP Rank: #4 [11-2] || 2023 Results So Far: 23-3 @ Indiana [2-4], 35-7 vs Youngstown State [FCS, 3-3], 63-10 vs WKU [4-2], 17-14 @ Notre Dame [6-2], 37-17 vs Maryland [5-2], 41-7 @ Purdue [2-5] |
3 |
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(-) [6-0] Credentials: 6-7 Final Record in 2022 || 2023 Results So Far: 73-0 vs Arkansas State [3-3], 28-11 vs SMU [4-2], 66-17 @ Tulsa [3-3], 20-6 @ Cincinnati [2-4], 50-20 vs Iowa State [4-3], 34-30 vs Texas [5-1] (Dallas) |
4 |
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(+1) [6-0] Credentials: 2022 ACC Atlantic Runners-Up, Final AP Rank: #11 [10-3] || 2023 Results So Far: 45-24 vs LSU [5-2] (Orlando), 66-13 vs Southern Miss [1-5], 31-29 @ Boston College [3-3], 31-24 @ Clemson [4-2], 39-17 vs Virginia Tech [3-4], 41-3 vs Syracuse [4-3] |
5 |
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(+2) [6-0] Credentials: 2022 Alamo Bowl Champs, Final AP Rank: #8 [11-2] || 2023 Results So Far: 56-19 vs Boise State [3-4], 43-10 vs Tulsa [3-3], 41-7 @ Michigan State [2-4], 59-32 vs California [3-4], 31-24 @ Arizona [4-3], 36-33 vs Oregon [5-1] |
6 |
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(-2) [7-0] Credentials: 2022 B1G Champs, CFP Participant, Final AP Rank: #3 [13-1] || 2023 Results So Far: 30-3 vs East Carolina [1-5], 35-7 vs UNLV [5-1], 31-6 vs Bowling Green [3-4], 31-7 vs Rutgers [5-2], 45-7 @ Nebraska [3-3], 52-10 @ Minnesota [3-3], 52-7 vs Indiana [2-4] |
7 |
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(-1) [7-0] Credentials: Back-to-back National Champions, Final 2022 AP Rank: #1 [15-0] || 2023 Results So Far: 48-7 vs UT-Martin [FCS, 4-1], 45-3 vs Ball State [1-6], 24-14 vs South Carolina [2-4], 49-21 vs UAB [2-5], 27-20 @ Auburn [3-3], 51-13 vs Kentucky [5-2], 37-20 @ Vanderbilt [2-6] |
8 |
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(+1) [6-0] Credentials: 2022 ACC Coastal Champs, Final AP Poll: RV [9-5] || 2023 Results So Far: 31-17 vs South Carolina [2-4] (Charlotte), 40-34 vs App State [3-3] (2OT), 31-13 vs Minnesota [3-3], 41-24 @ Pittsburgh [2-4], 40-7 vs Syracuse [4-3], 41-31 vs Miami (FL) [4-2] |
9 |
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(+6) [5-1] Credentials: 2022 Big XII Third Place, Alamo Bowl Runners-Up, Final AP Rank: #25 [8-5] || 2023 Results So Far: 37-10 vs Rice [3-3], 34-24 @ Alabama [6-1], 31-10 vs Wyoming [5-2], 38-6 @ Baylor [2-4], 40-14 vs Kansas [5-2], 30-34 vs Oklahoma [6-0] (Dallas) |
10 |
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(-2) [5-1] Credentials: 2022 Holiday Bowl Champs, PAC-12 Joint Third Place, Final AP Rank: #15 [10-3] || 2023 Results So Far: 81-7 vs Portland State [FCS, 3-3], 38-30 @ Texas Tech [3-4], 55-10 vs Hawaii [2-5], 42-6 vs Colorado [4-3], 42-6 @ Stanford [2-4], 33-36 @ Washington [6-0] |
11 |
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(+6) [6-1] Credentials: 2022 PAC-12 Joint 5th Place, Las Vegas Bowl Champs, Final AP Rank: #17 [10-3] || 2023 Results So Far: 42-17 @ San Jose State [2-5], 55-7 vs UC Davis [FCS, 4-3], 26-9 vs San Diego State [2-5], 35-38 @ Washington State [4-2], 21-7 vs Utah [5-1], 52-40 @ Cal [3-4], 36-24 vs UCLA [4-2] |
12 |
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(+4) [6-1] Credentials: 2022 SEC West Joint-Champ, Sugar Bowl Champs, Final AP Rank: #5 [11-2] || Results So Far: 56-7 vs Middle Tennessee [2-5], 24-34 vs Texas [5-1], 17-3 @ South Florida [3-4], 24-10 vs Ole Miss [5-1], 40-17 @ MS State [3-3], 26-20 @ Texas A&M [4-3], 24-21 vs Arkansas [2-5] |
13 |
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(-1) [6-0] Credentials: 2022 Joint Runners-Up in MW Mountain, Received Votes in Final AP Poll [10-3] || 2023 Results So Far: 42-7 vs Robert Morris [FCS, 2-5], 13-3 @ Sam Houston [0-6], 39-21 vs Utah State [4-3], 45-20 @ San Jose State [2-5], 49-10 vs San Diego State [3-4], 34-27 vs Wyoming [5-2] |
14 |
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(+4) [5-1] Credentials: 2022 SEC West Joint 3rd Place, Final Record: 8-5 || 2023 Results So Far: 73-7 vs Mercer [FCS, 4-3], 37-20 @ Tulane [5-1], 48-23 vs Georgia Tech [3-3], 10-24 @ Alabama [6-1], 55-49 vs LSU [5-2], 27-20 vs Arkansas [2-5] |
15 |
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(-2) [6-0] Credentials: 8-3 Final Record in 2022 || 2023 Results So Far: 38-3 vs Bucknell [FCS, 2-4], 36-35 @ Virginia [1-5], 16-14 @ Troy [5-2], 45-38 @ Utah State [4-3], 31-23 vs South Alabama [3-3], 41-13 vs Georgia Southern [4-2] |
16 |
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(NEW) [5-1] Credentials: 2022 PAC-12 Champs, Rose Bowl Runners-Up, Final AP Rank: #10 [10-4] || 2023 Results So Far: 24-11 vs Florida [5-2], 20-13 @ Baylor [2-4], 31-7 vs Weber State [FCS, 3-4], 14-7 vs UCLA [4-2], 7-21 @ Oregon State [6-1], 34-14 vs Cal [3-4] |
17 |
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(-3) [6-0] Credentials: 8-5 Final Record in 2022 || 2023 Results So Far: 34-24 vs Bowling Green [3-4], 33-17 vs New Mexico State [4-3], 55-27 @ Buffalo [2-5], 38-6 @ FIU [3-4], 21-16 vs Sam Houston [0-6], 31-13 @ Jacksonville State [5-1] |
18 |
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(-7) [6-1] Credentials: 2022 ACC Atlantic Joint 3rd Place, Final Record: 8-5 || 2023 Results So Far: 39-34 @ Georgia Tech [3-3], 56-0 vs Murray State [FCS, 2-4], 21-14 @ Indiana [2-5], 56-28 vs Boston College [3-3], 13-10 @ NC State [4-3], 33-20 vs Notre Dame [6-2], 21-38 @ Pitt [2-4] |
19 |
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(NEW) [6-2] Credentials: 2022 Gator Bowl Champs, Final AP Rank: #18 [9-4] || 2023 Results So Far: 42-3 vs Navy (Dublin) [3-3], 56-3 vs Tennessee State [FCS, 4-2], 45-24 @ NC State [4-3], 41-17 vs Central Michigan [4-3], 14-17 vs Ohio State [6-0], 21-14 @ Duke [5-1], 20-33 @ Louisville [6-1], 48-20 vs USC [6-1] |
20 |
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(+4) [5-1] Credentials: 2022 ACC Coastal Joint Runners-Up, Military Bowl Champs, Final AP Rank: RV [9-4] || 2023 Results So Far: 28-7 vs Clemson [4-2], 42-7 vs Lafayette [FCS, 5-1], 38-14 vs Northwestern [3-3], 41-7 @ UConn [1-5], 14-21 vs Notre Dame [6-2], 24-3 vs NC State [4-3] |
21 |
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(-11) [6-1] Credentials: 2022 PAC-12 Runners-Up, Cotton Bowl Runners-Up, Final AP Rank: #12 [11-3] || 2023 Results So Far: 56-28 vs San Jose State [2-5], 66-14 vs Nevada [0-6], 56-10 vs Stanford [2-4], 42-28 @ Arizona State [1-5], 48-41 @ Colorado [4-3], 43-41 vs Arizona (3OT) [4-3], 20-48 @ Notre Dame [6-2] |
22 |
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(-1) [6-1] Credentials: 2022 Mountain West Champs, LA Bowl Champs, Final AP Rank: #24 [10-4] || 2023 Results So Far: 39-35 @ Purdue [2-5], 34-31 vs Eastern Washington (2OT) [FCS, 2-4], 29-0 @ Arizona State [1-5], 53-10 vs Kent State [1-6], 27-9 vs Nevada [0-6], 19-24 @ Wyoming [5-2], 37-32 @ Utah State [3-4] |
23 |
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(-) [6-1] Credentials: 2022 SEC East Joint 4th Place, Final Record: 6-7 || 2023 Results So Far: 35-10 vs South Dakota [FCS, 5-1], 23-19 vs Middle Tennessee [2-5], 30-27 vs Kansas State [4-2], 34-27 vs Memphis [4-2], 38-21 @ Vanderbilt [2-6], 39-49 vs LSU [5-2], 38-21 @ Kentucky [5-2] |
24 |
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(NEW) [5-1] Credentials: 2022 American Champs, Cotton Bowl Champs, Final AP Rank: #9 [12-2] || 2023 Results So Far: 37-17 vs South Alabama [3-3], 20-37 vs Ole Miss [5-1], 21-3 @ Southern Miss [1-5], 36-7 vs Nicholls State [FCS, 2-3], 35-23 vs UAB [2-5], 31-21 @ Memphis [4-2] |
25 |
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(NEW) [6-1] Credentials: 2022 B1G West Joint Runners-Up, Music Bowl Champs, Final AP Rank: Unranked [8-5] || 2023 Results So Far: 24-14 vs Utah State [3-4], 20-13 @ Iowa State [4-3], 41-10 vs Western Michigan [2-5], 0-31 @ Penn State [6-0], 26-16 vs Michigan State [2-4], 20-14 vs Purdue [2-4], 15-6 @ Wisconsin [5-2] |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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1.86 |
2 |
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0.43 |
3 |
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0.00 |
4 |
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0.00 |
5 |
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-0.07 |
6 |
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-0.62 |
7 |
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-0.22 |
8 |
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0.00 |
9 |
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0.00 |
10 |
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0.00 |
11 |
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0.02 |
12 |
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0.00 |
13 |
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0.89 |
14 |
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0.00 |
15 |
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0.95 |
16 |
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0.00 |
17 |
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2.49 |
18 |
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0.00 |
19 |
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-0.07 |
20 |
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-0.34 |
21 |
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0.00 |
22 |
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2.99 |
23 |
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-0.20 |
24 |
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0.00 |
25 |
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-0.09 |