Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Oct. 15, 2023, 10:57 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Other notes for this week: UCLA, Wisconsin, Louisville dropped out. Maryland dropped manually (ranked 20 according to model).
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | +5 |
2 | Oklahoma Sooners | no change |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | no change |
4 | Penn State Nittany Lions | +2 |
5 | Washington Huskies | -1 |
6 | Michigan Wolverines | -5, not sure why this happened. If this was a human poll they'd stay #1 for me. |
7 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | +6 |
8 | Florida State Seminoles | -3 |
9 | Texas Longhorns | -1 |
10 | Alabama Crimson Tide | no change |
11 | Tennessee Volunteers | -2 |
12 | Oregon Ducks | -1 |
13 | LSU Tigers | +13 |
14 | Kansas State Wildcats | no change |
15 | Texas A&M Aggies | no change, honestly not sure why they keep getting ranked |
16 | North Carolina Tar Heels | no change |
17 | Air Force Falcons | -5, 12 was a bit high last week but I do think this team is legit after they beat Wyoming who is also underrated. |
18 | Clemson Tigers | +4 |
19 | USC Trojans | +6, manually moved up past Fresno State and Maryland |
20 | Oregon State Beavers | -3, manually moved up past Fresno State and Maryland |
21 | Missouri Tigers | +32, manually moved up past Fresno State, Maryland, and Duke |
22 | Duke Blue Devils | -6 |
23 | Fresno State Bulldogs | -1, manually moved down from model rank (18) |
24 | TCU Horned Frogs | +5, I don't think they should be ranked but I'll give the model the benefit of the doubt here |
25 | Arizona Wildcats | +37, huge win and they played USC close last week. Model ranked them 26 but I added them to replace Maryland. |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.98 |
2 | Oklahoma Sooners | 0.51 |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
4 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.30 |
5 | Washington Huskies | -0.07 |
6 | Michigan Wolverines | -0.62 |
7 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 1.73 |
8 | Florida State Seminoles | -0.77 |
9 | Texas Longhorns | 0.00 |
10 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
11 | Tennessee Volunteers | 1.38 |
12 | Oregon Ducks | 0.00 |
13 | LSU Tigers | 1.41 |
14 | Kansas State Wildcats | 10.98 |
15 | Texas A&M Aggies | 10.14 |
16 | North Carolina Tar Heels | -2.26 |
17 | Air Force Falcons | 0.00 |
18 | Clemson Tigers | 6.58 |
19 | USC Trojans | 0.00 |
20 | Oregon State Beavers | -2.32 |
21 | Missouri Tigers | 0.00 |
22 | Duke Blue Devils | -0.99 |
23 | Fresno State Bulldogs | 1.99 |
24 | TCU Horned Frogs | 1.17 |
25 | Arizona Wildcats | 0.13 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Ole Miss Rebels | 3.09 |
Utah Utes | 2.43 |
Louisville Cardinals | 0.84 |
Iowa Hawkeyes | 0.36 |
James Madison Dukes | 0.11 |
Tulane Green Wave | 0.29 |
Total Score: 51.45