Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Oct. 15, 2023, 10:57 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Other notes for this week: UCLA, Wisconsin, Louisville dropped out. Maryland dropped manually (ranked 20 according to model).
| Rank | Team | Reason | 
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ohio State Buckeyes | +5 | 
| 2 |  Oklahoma Sooners | no change | 
| 3 |  Georgia Bulldogs | no change | 
| 4 |  Penn State Nittany Lions | +2 | 
| 5 |  Washington Huskies | -1 | 
| 6 |  Michigan Wolverines | -5, not sure why this happened. If this was a human poll they'd stay #1 for me. | 
| 7 |  Notre Dame Fighting Irish | +6 | 
| 8 |  Florida State Seminoles | -3 | 
| 9 |  Texas Longhorns | -1 | 
| 10 |  Alabama Crimson Tide | no change | 
| 11 |  Tennessee Volunteers | -2 | 
| 12 |  Oregon Ducks | -1 | 
| 13 |  LSU Tigers | +13 | 
| 14 |  Kansas State Wildcats | no change | 
| 15 |  Texas A&M Aggies | no change, honestly not sure why they keep getting ranked | 
| 16 |  North Carolina Tar Heels | no change | 
| 17 |  Air Force Falcons | -5, 12 was a bit high last week but I do think this team is legit after they beat Wyoming who is also underrated. | 
| 18 |  Clemson Tigers | +4 | 
| 19 |  USC Trojans | +6, manually moved up past Fresno State and Maryland | 
| 20 |  Oregon State Beavers | -3, manually moved up past Fresno State and Maryland | 
| 21 |  Missouri Tigers | +32, manually moved up past Fresno State, Maryland, and Duke | 
| 22 |  Duke Blue Devils | -6 | 
| 23 |  Fresno State Bulldogs | -1, manually moved down from model rank (18) | 
| 24 |  TCU Horned Frogs | +5, I don't think they should be ranked but I'll give the model the benefit of the doubt here | 
| 25 |  Arizona Wildcats | +37, huge win and they played USC close last week. Model ranked them 26 but I added them to replace Maryland. | 
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness | 
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.98 | 
| 2 |  Oklahoma Sooners | 0.51 | 
| 3 |  Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 | 
| 4 |  Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.30 | 
| 5 |  Washington Huskies | -0.07 | 
| 6 |  Michigan Wolverines | -0.62 | 
| 7 |  Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 1.73 | 
| 8 |  Florida State Seminoles | -0.77 | 
| 9 |  Texas Longhorns | 0.00 | 
| 10 |  Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 | 
| 11 |  Tennessee Volunteers | 1.38 | 
| 12 |  Oregon Ducks | 0.00 | 
| 13 |  LSU Tigers | 1.41 | 
| 14 |  Kansas State Wildcats | 10.98 | 
| 15 |  Texas A&M Aggies | 10.14 | 
| 16 |  North Carolina Tar Heels | -2.26 | 
| 17 |  Air Force Falcons | 0.00 | 
| 18 |  Clemson Tigers | 6.58 | 
| 19 |  USC Trojans | 0.00 | 
| 20 |  Oregon State Beavers | -2.32 | 
| 21 |  Missouri Tigers | 0.00 | 
| 22 |  Duke Blue Devils | -0.99 | 
| 23 |  Fresno State Bulldogs | 1.99 | 
| 24 |  TCU Horned Frogs | 1.17 | 
| 25 |  Arizona Wildcats | 0.13 | 
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness | 
|---|---|
|  Ole Miss Rebels | 3.09 | 
|  Utah Utes | 2.43 | 
|  Louisville Cardinals | 0.84 | 
|  Iowa Hawkeyes | 0.36 | 
|  James Madison Dukes | 0.11 | 
|  Tulane Green Wave | 0.29 | 
Total Score: 51.45