Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Oct. 15, 2023, 10:57 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Other notes for this week: UCLA, Wisconsin, Louisville dropped out. Maryland dropped manually (ranked 20 according to model).
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
+5 |
| 2 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
no change |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
no change |
| 4 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
+2 |
| 5 |
Washington Huskies
|
-1 |
| 6 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
-5, not sure why this happened. If this was a human poll they'd stay #1 for me. |
| 7 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
+6 |
| 8 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
-3 |
| 9 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-1 |
| 10 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
no change |
| 11 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
-2 |
| 12 |
Oregon Ducks
|
-1 |
| 13 |
LSU Tigers
|
+13 |
| 14 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
no change |
| 15 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
no change, honestly not sure why they keep getting ranked |
| 16 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
no change |
| 17 |
Air Force Falcons
|
-5, 12 was a bit high last week but I do think this team is legit after they beat Wyoming who is also underrated. |
| 18 |
Clemson Tigers
|
+4 |
| 19 |
USC Trojans
|
+6, manually moved up past Fresno State and Maryland |
| 20 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
-3, manually moved up past Fresno State and Maryland |
| 21 |
Missouri Tigers
|
+32, manually moved up past Fresno State, Maryland, and Duke |
| 22 |
Duke Blue Devils
|
-6 |
| 23 |
Fresno State Bulldogs
|
-1, manually moved down from model rank (18) |
| 24 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
+5, I don't think they should be ranked but I'll give the model the benefit of the doubt here |
| 25 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
+37, huge win and they played USC close last week. Model ranked them 26 but I added them to replace Maryland. |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.98 |
| 2 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.51 |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.30 |
| 5 |
Washington Huskies
|
-0.07 |
| 6 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
-0.62 |
| 7 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.73 |
| 8 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
-0.77 |
| 9 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.38 |
| 12 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
LSU Tigers
|
1.41 |
| 14 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
10.98 |
| 15 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
10.14 |
| 16 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
-2.26 |
| 17 |
Air Force Falcons
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Clemson Tigers
|
6.58 |
| 19 |
USC Trojans
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
-2.32 |
| 21 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Duke Blue Devils
|
-0.99 |
| 23 |
Fresno State Bulldogs
|
1.99 |
| 24 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
1.17 |
| 25 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
0.13 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Ole Miss Rebels
|
3.09 |
Utah Utes
|
2.43 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.84 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.36 |
James Madison Dukes
|
0.11 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
0.29 |
Total Score: 51.45