Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Oct. 15, 2023, 10:57 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Other notes for this week: UCLA, Wisconsin, Louisville dropped out. Maryland dropped manually (ranked 20 according to model).
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
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+5 |
2 |
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no change |
3 |
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no change |
4 |
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+2 |
5 |
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-1 |
6 |
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-5, not sure why this happened. If this was a human poll they'd stay #1 for me. |
7 |
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+6 |
8 |
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-3 |
9 |
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-1 |
10 |
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no change |
11 |
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-2 |
12 |
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-1 |
13 |
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+13 |
14 |
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no change |
15 |
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no change, honestly not sure why they keep getting ranked |
16 |
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no change |
17 |
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-5, 12 was a bit high last week but I do think this team is legit after they beat Wyoming who is also underrated. |
18 |
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+4 |
19 |
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+6, manually moved up past Fresno State and Maryland |
20 |
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-3, manually moved up past Fresno State and Maryland |
21 |
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+32, manually moved up past Fresno State, Maryland, and Duke |
22 |
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-6 |
23 |
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-1, manually moved down from model rank (18) |
24 |
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+5, I don't think they should be ranked but I'll give the model the benefit of the doubt here |
25 |
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+37, huge win and they played USC close last week. Model ranked them 26 but I added them to replace Maryland. |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.98 |
2 |
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0.51 |
3 |
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0.00 |
4 |
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0.30 |
5 |
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-0.07 |
6 |
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-0.62 |
7 |
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1.73 |
8 |
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-0.77 |
9 |
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0.00 |
10 |
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0.00 |
11 |
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1.38 |
12 |
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0.00 |
13 |
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1.41 |
14 |
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10.98 |
15 |
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10.14 |
16 |
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-2.26 |
17 |
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0.00 |
18 |
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6.58 |
19 |
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0.00 |
20 |
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-2.32 |
21 |
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0.00 |
22 |
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-0.99 |
23 |
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1.99 |
24 |
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1.17 |
25 |
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0.13 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
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3.09 |
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2.43 |
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0.84 |
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0.36 |
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0.11 |
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0.29 |
Total Score: 51.45