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PrimalCookie Ballot for 2023 Week 8

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 15, 2023, 6:27 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Welcome back to New and Improved* Equivalent Wins! It’s still one of our computers in r/FakeCollegeFootball, but I’ve made a fairly big change to it this week. (*actual improvement TBD) Basically, James Madison, Air Force, and Liberty were getting *way* too high for my liking (9, 13, and 14 respectively), so I’ve added a -0.750 “G5 tax” to all G5 teams. Those teams now land at a much more respectable (IMO) 17, 25, and 27. It hasn’t fixed every issue with the metric this year, most notably it’s absolute hatred of Georgia who clocks in this week at #19, but on the other hand their opponents are 9-20 in non-UGA FBS games (and 4 of those wins are from Kentucky) so I can see why it feels that way at least. It’ll sort itself out over time, hopefully.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes 3.353
2 Penn State Nittany Lions 3.321
3 Texas Longhorns 3.293 - the first of many “computer doesn’t care about head to head” rankings
4 Oklahoma Sooners 2.836
5 Florida State Seminoles 2.787
6 Michigan Wolverines 2.708
7 Washington Huskies 2.623
8 North Carolina Tar Heels 2.555
9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2.472 - Quality losses! Woo! This is an SOS ranking just as much as Georgia’s is: ND’s played 4 teams in this top 25 and went 2-2. Their opponents overall are 26-7 vs non-ND FBS opponents, and 3 of those losses are Navy. It’s a bit high for my liking, I’d have them around 15th in a human poll, but not too unreasonable IMO
10 Ole Miss Rebels 2.275
11 Iowa Hawkeyes 2.262 - Iowa is very lucky that offensive stats aren’t a part of this
12 Utah Utes 2.058 - “computer doesn’t care about head to head” part 2
13 Oregon State Beavers 2.015
14 Oregon Ducks 1.968
15 Alabama Crimson Tide 1.963
16 Louisville Cardinals 1.888
17 James Madison Dukes 1.759
18 Duke Blue Devils 1.751
19 Georgia Bulldogs 1.728 - As previously mentioned, this is by far the worst take EQW has but it’s all due to SOS: opponents are 9-20 in non-UGA FBS games, and Kentucky are 4 of those wins. It’ll work itself out eventually
20 LSU Tigers 1.700
21 Missouri Tigers 1.660
22 Wisconsin Badgers 1.589 - Mostly because it still really likes Rutgers and has 2-5 Purdue in the top half due to how strong their SOS is. I don’t like this take at all, but hey if I don’t like it maybe I should try making a better system… which I will in the offseason. Also, “computer doesn’t care about head to head” part 3
23 Washington State Cougars 1.458 - beating Oregon State and Wisconsin is doing wonders for them here
24 USC Trojans 1.453 - Funnily enough it hasn’t like USC all season, but they barely moved this week. The power of a quality loss I guess (and Arizona/Stanford winning and improving their scores by a good bit)
25 Air Force Falcons 1.361 // Next 5: Miami, Liberty, Tennessee, Clemson, UCLA // Teams in AP/Coaches not ranked here: #28 Tennessee, #30 UCLA, #44 Tulane

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