Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 15, 2023, 6:27 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Welcome back to New and Improved* Equivalent Wins! It’s still one of our computers in r/FakeCollegeFootball, but I’ve made a fairly big change to it this week. (*actual improvement TBD) Basically, James Madison, Air Force, and Liberty were getting *way* too high for my liking (9, 13, and 14 respectively), so I’ve added a -0.750 “G5 tax” to all G5 teams. Those teams now land at a much more respectable (IMO) 17, 25, and 27. It hasn’t fixed every issue with the metric this year, most notably it’s absolute hatred of Georgia who clocks in this week at #19, but on the other hand their opponents are 9-20 in non-UGA FBS games (and 4 of those wins are from Kentucky) so I can see why it feels that way at least. It’ll sort itself out over time, hopefully.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 3.353 |
2 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 3.321 |
3 | Texas Longhorns | 3.293 - the first of many “computer doesn’t care about head to head” rankings |
4 | Oklahoma Sooners | 2.836 |
5 | Florida State Seminoles | 2.787 |
6 | Michigan Wolverines | 2.708 |
7 | Washington Huskies | 2.623 |
8 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 2.555 |
9 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 2.472 - Quality losses! Woo! This is an SOS ranking just as much as Georgia’s is: ND’s played 4 teams in this top 25 and went 2-2. Their opponents overall are 26-7 vs non-ND FBS opponents, and 3 of those losses are Navy. It’s a bit high for my liking, I’d have them around 15th in a human poll, but not too unreasonable IMO |
10 | Ole Miss Rebels | 2.275 |
11 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 2.262 - Iowa is very lucky that offensive stats aren’t a part of this |
12 | Utah Utes | 2.058 - “computer doesn’t care about head to head” part 2 |
13 | Oregon State Beavers | 2.015 |
14 | Oregon Ducks | 1.968 |
15 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1.963 |
16 | Louisville Cardinals | 1.888 |
17 | James Madison Dukes | 1.759 |
18 | Duke Blue Devils | 1.751 |
19 | Georgia Bulldogs | 1.728 - As previously mentioned, this is by far the worst take EQW has but it’s all due to SOS: opponents are 9-20 in non-UGA FBS games, and Kentucky are 4 of those wins. It’ll work itself out eventually |
20 | LSU Tigers | 1.700 |
21 | Missouri Tigers | 1.660 |
22 | Wisconsin Badgers | 1.589 - Mostly because it still really likes Rutgers and has 2-5 Purdue in the top half due to how strong their SOS is. I don’t like this take at all, but hey if I don’t like it maybe I should try making a better system… which I will in the offseason. Also, “computer doesn’t care about head to head” part 3 |
23 | Washington State Cougars | 1.458 - beating Oregon State and Wisconsin is doing wonders for them here |
24 | USC Trojans | 1.453 - Funnily enough it hasn’t like USC all season, but they barely moved this week. The power of a quality loss I guess (and Arizona/Stanford winning and improving their scores by a good bit) |
25 | Air Force Falcons | 1.361 // Next 5: Miami, Liberty, Tennessee, Clemson, UCLA // Teams in AP/Coaches not ranked here: #28 Tennessee, #30 UCLA, #44 Tulane |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.98 |
2 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 1.34 |
3 | Texas Longhorns | 1.72 |
4 | Oklahoma Sooners | 0.00 |
5 | Florida State Seminoles | 0.00 |
6 | Michigan Wolverines | -0.62 |
7 | Washington Huskies | -1.05 |
8 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 0.00 |
9 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 1.18 |
10 | Ole Miss Rebels | 0.68 |
11 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 2.25 |
12 | Utah Utes | 0.45 |
13 | Oregon State Beavers | 0.00 |
14 | Oregon Ducks | -0.26 |
15 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -1.21 |
16 | Louisville Cardinals | 0.55 |
17 | James Madison Dukes | 0.48 |
18 | Duke Blue Devils | 0.00 |
19 | Georgia Bulldogs | -3.67 |
20 | LSU Tigers | 0.00 |
21 | Missouri Tigers | 0.00 |
22 | Wisconsin Badgers | 3.16 |
23 | Washington State Cougars | 2.17 |
24 | USC Trojans | -0.86 |
25 | Air Force Falcons | -0.54 |