Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 15, 2023, 6:27 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Welcome back to New and Improved* Equivalent Wins! It’s still one of our computers in r/FakeCollegeFootball, but I’ve made a fairly big change to it this week. (*actual improvement TBD) Basically, James Madison, Air Force, and Liberty were getting *way* too high for my liking (9, 13, and 14 respectively), so I’ve added a -0.750 “G5 tax” to all G5 teams. Those teams now land at a much more respectable (IMO) 17, 25, and 27. It hasn’t fixed every issue with the metric this year, most notably it’s absolute hatred of Georgia who clocks in this week at #19, but on the other hand their opponents are 9-20 in non-UGA FBS games (and 4 of those wins are from Kentucky) so I can see why it feels that way at least. It’ll sort itself out over time, hopefully.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
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3.353 |
2 |
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3.321 |
3 |
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3.293 - the first of many “computer doesn’t care about head to head” rankings |
4 |
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2.836 |
5 |
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2.787 |
6 |
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2.708 |
7 |
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2.623 |
8 |
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2.555 |
9 |
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2.472 - Quality losses! Woo! This is an SOS ranking just as much as Georgia’s is: ND’s played 4 teams in this top 25 and went 2-2. Their opponents overall are 26-7 vs non-ND FBS opponents, and 3 of those losses are Navy. It’s a bit high for my liking, I’d have them around 15th in a human poll, but not too unreasonable IMO |
10 |
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2.275 |
11 |
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2.262 - Iowa is very lucky that offensive stats aren’t a part of this |
12 |
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2.058 - “computer doesn’t care about head to head” part 2 |
13 |
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2.015 |
14 |
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1.968 |
15 |
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1.963 |
16 |
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1.888 |
17 |
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1.759 |
18 |
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1.751 |
19 |
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1.728 - As previously mentioned, this is by far the worst take EQW has but it’s all due to SOS: opponents are 9-20 in non-UGA FBS games, and Kentucky are 4 of those wins. It’ll work itself out eventually |
20 |
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1.700 |
21 |
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1.660 |
22 |
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1.589 - Mostly because it still really likes Rutgers and has 2-5 Purdue in the top half due to how strong their SOS is. I don’t like this take at all, but hey if I don’t like it maybe I should try making a better system… which I will in the offseason. Also, “computer doesn’t care about head to head” part 3 |
23 |
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1.458 - beating Oregon State and Wisconsin is doing wonders for them here |
24 |
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1.453 - Funnily enough it hasn’t like USC all season, but they barely moved this week. The power of a quality loss I guess (and Arizona/Stanford winning and improving their scores by a good bit) |
25 |
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1.361 // Next 5: Miami, Liberty, Tennessee, Clemson, UCLA // Teams in AP/Coaches not ranked here: #28 Tennessee, #30 UCLA, #44 Tulane |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.98 |
2 |
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1.34 |
3 |
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1.72 |
4 |
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0.00 |
5 |
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0.00 |
6 |
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-0.62 |
7 |
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-1.05 |
8 |
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0.00 |
9 |
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1.18 |
10 |
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0.68 |
11 |
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2.25 |
12 |
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0.45 |
13 |
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0.00 |
14 |
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-0.26 |
15 |
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-1.21 |
16 |
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0.55 |
17 |
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0.48 |
18 |
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0.00 |
19 |
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-3.67 |
20 |
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0.00 |
21 |
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0.00 |
22 |
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3.16 |
23 |
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2.17 |
24 |
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-0.86 |
25 |
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-0.54 |