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70stang Ballot for 2023 Week 8

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Oct. 15, 2023, 9:03 p.m.

Overall Rationale: THIS POLL IS A REPORT CARD. It is not intended to be predictive in any way whatsoever, and it does not take into account team talent, prior seasons, or any sort of pre-season poll. This poll was deliberately designed to be a counterpoint to poll inertia, pre-season rankings, and human voters who use "The Eye Test," which is usually an excuse to prop up a team like USC or Notre Dame or UGA because of what they have accomplished BEFORE this season. This poll is only concerned with one thing, and that is the results of what have happened on field so far this season, in as blind of a calculation as I can possibly make it. Wins are the most important thing, followed by quality of opponents played, which up until this point in the season has been very roughly divided into P5, G5, and FCS. A win over Alabama and a win over Boston College counted exactly the same. Everything is recounted from scratch, week to week. This leads me into my next point: Now that we have crossed the halfway point in the season, some previously-planned changes are made to this poll. Firstly, I will now be considering "ranked" wins, as there is enough data for me to say that a "ranked" win actually means something. Crucially, a ranked win only exists against a team that was ranked in my poll the week prior, and everything is recalculated from scratch week-to-week. For example, UGA currently has a ranked win over Kentucky, but next week, they might have zero ranked wins. Similarly, you could have zero ranked wins and the next week have two or three. This is all in keeping with my primary goal, of getting rid of as much poll inertia as possible. The other (smaller) change happening this weekend, is my consideration of the top 10 teams. FCS wins have previously only counted negatively in direct comparison to other teams with equal records who had not played FCS competition. Now, in the top 10, FCS wins count directly against you, regardless of what the other teams in your tier have done. I don't make the schedules, I just rank the resumes. Complain to your AD if you want.

Rank Team Reason
1 Washington Huskies Welcome to the #1 spot, the Washington Huskies. They sit at the top of Tier 1, which is comprised of undefeated teams with one "Ranked" win. Crucially, Washington has played no FCS competition, which would be held against them in this tier. They have 4 P5 wins, including 1 Ranked win over Oregon, and 2 G5 wins to be 6-0.
2 Oklahoma Sooners OU takes second in Tier 1, with 3 P5 wins, including 1 Ranked win over Texas, and 3 G5 wins to be 6-0. They play second fiddle to Washington due to having played one less P5 team.
3 Georgia Bulldogs UGA, welcome to having earned a playoff spot in my poll, sitting in third in Tier 1 with 4 P5 wins, including 1 Ranked win against Kentucky, 2 G5 wins, and 1 FCS win to be 7-0. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, the FCS game counts against them in this tier compared to Washington and OU.
4 Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State takes fourth in Tier 1, with 4 P5 wins, including 1 Ranked win over Maryland, 1 G5 win, and 1 FCS win to be 6-0. They edge out Penn State due to strength of schedule.
5 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State sits fifth in Tier 1 with 4 P5 wins, including 1 Ranked win over Iowa, 1 G5 win, and 1 FCS win to be 6-0.
6 Florida State Seminoles FSU sits at the top of Tier 2, which is comprised of undefeated teams with multiple P5 wins and no ranked wins. FSU has 5 P5 wins, and 1 G5 win to be 6-0. They have played no FCS teams, and edge out UNC and Michigan here due to strength of schedule.
7 North Carolina Tar Heels UNC takes second in Tier 2, with 5 P5 wins, and 1 G5 win to be 6-0.
8 Michigan Wolverines Michigan rounds out Tier 2, with 4 P5 wins and 3 G5 wins to be 7-0; they take the back seat to UNC due to UNC playing one more P5 game.
9 Texas Longhorns Texas sits at the top of Tier 3, which is teams with 1 Loss who have multiple P5 wins, including at least 1 Ranked win. Texas has 3 P5 wins including 2 Ranked wins over Alabama and Kansas, as well as 2 G5 wins and 1 Ranked P5 loss at a neutral site to Oklahoma to be 5-1. They beat out every other team in this tier with 2 ranked wins, and especially Alabama due to the direct head-to-head win. Texas has also not played any FCS competition, which would be held against them for this slot.
10 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama is second in Tier 3, with 4 P5 wins including 1 Ranked win over Ole Miss, 2 G5 wins (including one away) and 1 P5 ranked loss at home to Texas to be 6-1. They beat out Mizzou and OSU due to having not played any FCS teams, and having their loss come to a ranked team.
11 Missouri Tigers Mizzou is third in Tier 3, with 4 P5 wins including 1 Ranked win over Kentucky, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and 1 P5 loss at home.
12 Oregon State Beavers Oregon State is last in Tier 3, with 3 P5 wins including 1 Ranked win over Utah, 2 G5 wins (one away) and 1 FCS win to be 6-1. They take the back seat to Mizzou due to having played one less P5 team.
13 Louisville Cardinals Louisville tops Tier 4, which are teams with multiple P5 wins, no ranked wins, and one loss. Louisville has beaten 5 P5 teams and 1 FCS team, as well as a P5 loss away to be 6-1. They take the top spot in this tier due to having one more P5 win than anybody else.
14 Iowa Hawkeyes Iowa takes second in Tier 4, with 4 P5 wins, 1 G5 win, and 1 FCS win as well as 1 ranked P5 loss away to be 6-1. It's honestly hilarious at this point how good this defense is, and how terrible the offense. They take precedence over USC due to their loss being to a ranked team, and over Utah due to having played one more game, over G5 competition.
15 Utah Utes Utah takes third in Tier 4, with 4 P5 wins, 1 FCS win, and 1 ranked P5 loss away to be 5-1.
16 USC Trojans USC finishes out Tier 4, with 4 P5 wins, 2 G5 wins, and 1 P5 loss away to be 6-1. They are lower than Utah due to losing to an unranked team. They will, happily, settle it head to head this weekend.
17 Oregon Ducks Oregon tops out Tier 5, which is comprised of teams with one loss, no ranked wins, and multiple P5 wins. Oregon has 3 P5 wins, one G5 win, and 1 FCS win as well as 1 ranked P5 loss away to be 5-1. They take first place in this tier due to having their loss be away to a ranked team, and over Ole Miss due to strength of schedule.
18 Ole Miss Rebels Ole Miss takes second in Tier 5, with 3 P5 wins, 1 G5 (away) win, and 1 FCS win as well as 1 ranked P5 loss away to be 6-1.
19 Tennessee Volunteers Tennessee takes third in Tier 5, with 3 P5 wins, 1 G5 win, and 1 FCS win as well as 1 P5 loss away to be 5-1.
20 Duke Blue Devils Duke sits fourth in Tier 5, with 3 P5 wins, 1 G5 win, and 1 FCS win as well as 1 P5 home loss to be 5-1. They top Fresno due to number of P5 wins, and take a backseat to Tennessee due to their loss coming at home, versus away for Tennessee.
21 Fresno State Bulldogs Fresno State finishes out Tier 5, with 2 P5 wins, 3 G5 wins, 1 FCS win, and 1 G5 loss away to be 6-1.
22 James Madison Dukes Welcome to Tier 6, which is teams that are undefeated but with one or fewer P5 wins, also known as the G5 Contender Tier. JMU has 1 P5 win, 4 G5 wins, and 1 FCS win to be 6-0.
23 Liberty Flames Liberty takes second in the G5 tier, with 6 G5 wins to be 6-0. They take the edge over Air Force due to not having played an FCS team.
24 Air Force Falcons Air force takes last in Tier 6, with 5 G5 wins and 1 FCS win to be 6-0.
25 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Welcome to the Notre Dame Tier. What even is this team? Are they really good, beating USC and Duke for 2 ranked wins? Are they bad, losing to Louisville and Ohio State? I have no clue, but my algorithm does. ND takes this spot over any other 2 loss team, because they have 2 ranked wins and their two losses are to ranked opponents, and they are the only 2-loss team to have played 8 games so far.

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