Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 15, 2023, 2:38 p.m.

Overall Rationale: The modified Colley returns, with a few changes. Last year, I inserted some pre season bias, pretty much how I saw fit. This year, I'm using last years colley ratings as a starting point. However, I will be introducing a decay function to the bias, so by the end of the season, there should be little to no bias, similar to the normal colley ratings. I'm using a simple decay starting this week, of 5% of the difference between their last years rating, and .5. Using this with OLS to predict spreads and betting according. This was not a good week.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Michigan Wolverines
2	Florida State Seminoles
3	Washington Huskies
4	Oklahoma Sooners
5	North Carolina Tar Heels
6	Ohio State Buckeyes
7	Texas Longhorns
8	Penn State Nittany Lions
9	Alabama Crimson Tide
10	Georgia Bulldogs
11	Iowa Hawkeyes
12	James Madison Dukes
13	Ole Miss Rebels
14	Oregon State Beavers
15	Utah Utes
16	Air Force Falcons
17	Notre Dame Fighting Irish
18	Tennessee Volunteers
19	Liberty Flames
20	Missouri Tigers
21	Louisville Cardinals
22	LSU Tigers
23	USC Trojans
24	Duke Blue Devils
25	Oregon Ducks

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Michigan Wolverines	0.16
2	Florida State Seminoles	0.97
3	Washington Huskies	0.00
4	Oklahoma Sooners	0.00
5	North Carolina Tar Heels	1.10
6	Ohio State Buckeyes	-0.29
7	Texas Longhorns	0.07
8	Penn State Nittany Lions	-0.28
9	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.27
10	Georgia Bulldogs	-1.09
11	Iowa Hawkeyes	2.25
12	James Madison Dukes	1.64
13	Ole Miss Rebels	0.00
14	Oregon State Beavers	0.00
15	Utah Utes	0.00
16	Air Force Falcons	0.16
17	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
18	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
19	Liberty Flames	1.63
20	Missouri Tigers	0.00
21	Louisville Cardinals	0.00
22	LSU Tigers	0.00
23	USC Trojans	-0.55
24	Duke Blue Devils	-1.64
25	Oregon Ducks	-3.44

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Tulane Green Wave	0.29

Total Score: 15.83