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CallingUagoatUgoat Ballot for 2023 Week 8

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 15, 2023, 11:47 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Wins earn a team points. Losses lose points. How many points earned/lost is dependent on the quality of a team's opponent (both at the time you played them and currently). Opponent quality is determined by SP+ ranking. Margin of victory (MOV) is not factored into these rankings, not because I don't think it's a good indicator of a team's strength, but because, at the end of the season, the CFP committee looks more at who you beat and less about how you beat them.

Rank Team Reason
1 Florida State Seminoles 2 SP+ T-25 wins (LSU, Clemson).
2 Alabama Crimson Tide 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Ole Miss, Texas A&M). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Texas). The Tide are taking care of business after their lone loss to Texas. There's an argument to have them at #2 considering their schedule so far compared to some unranked teams like Georgia and Michigan.
3 Washington Huskies T-3. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Oregon). Washington got their first quality win of the season and it was a big one. They jumped up 7 spots with this win and overtook last week's #1 Oklahoma in the process.
4 Oklahoma Sooners T-3. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Texas). The Sooners stood pat this week, allowing FSU and Washington to match their data points. I think most people would say OU at #4 makes much more sense now.
5 North Carolina Tar Heels T-3. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Miami). Not much to say here. UNC took care of business and took home a solid W. It's time to put respect on Carolina's name.
6 Texas Longhorns T-6. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Alabama). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Oklahoma). Just like with OU, Texas dropped three spots during their bye week.
7 Ohio State Buckeyes T-6. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Notre Dame). Notre Dame rose from 12 to 10 in SP+, meaning Ohio State re-gained a T-10 win.
8 Georgia Bulldogs 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. Georgia and Michigan are the only undefeated teams that have played seven games through Week 7. But they haven't played an SP+ T-25 team yet, so it's hard to say they've earned a higher ranking, especially considering that teams like FSU, Washington, and even Alabama have proved they deserve to be ranked higher and have the receipts to back it up. Do I think Georgia is the eighth-best team in the country? No. But I'm not going to award them a higher ranking unless they play and beat nationally relevant teams.
9 Iowa Hawkeyes 1 SP+ T-25 win (Wisconsin). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Penn State). Is Iowa seriously doing this again?
10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Duke, USC). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Ohio State). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Louisville). I need Notre Dame to make up its mind. They've got good wins but a pretty bad loss on their schedule.
11 Ole Miss Rebels T-11. 1 SP+ T-25 win (LSU). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Alabama).
12 Missouri Tigers T-11. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Kansas State). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (LSU).
13 Michigan Wolverines T-13. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. If I factored in margin of victory, Michigan would probably be #1, but I intentionally leave out MOV in favor of Ws and Ls vs quality teams (something we hear the committee talk a lot about, especially at the end of the season).
14 Oregon State Beavers T-13. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Utah, UCLA). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Washington State).
15 Utah Utes 1 SP+ T-25 win (UCLA). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Oregon State).
16 Duke Blue Devils 1 SP+ T-25 win (Clemson). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Notre Dame).
17 LSU Tigers 2 SP+ T-25 losses (Florida State, Ole Miss).
18 Penn State Nittany Lions 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. Penn State will get their first big opportunity to make a statement when they play the Buckeyes this weekend. If they can pull off the win, you can expect them to shoot up the rankings. If not, they'll have to wait until Michigan to show us they are as good as advertised.
19 USC Trojans 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Notre Dame).
20 Liberty Flames 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. Liberty joins the Top 25 simply because they are 6-0.
21 Louisville Cardinals 1 SP+ T-10 win (Notre Dame). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Pittsburgh). Louisville tumbled 15 spots after their loss to a not-so-great Pitt team.
22 James Madison Dukes 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins.
23 Tennessee Volunteers T-23. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Texas A&M). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Florida).
24 Air Force Falcons T-23. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins.
25 Florida Gators 1 SP+ T-25 win (Tennessee). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Utah). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Kentucky). The Gators are a half-point ahead of the Oregon Ducks. The reason for this is simple - Oregon's schedule prior to UW was pretty weak. They'll have a chance to square up and re-enter the rankings if they take care of business down the stretch.

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