Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 15, 2023, 11:13 a.m.
Overall Rationale: My computer ballot is designed in a way to attempt to predict how the committee may make their selections. It begins as a strict computer power ranking then over the course of the season weighs resume more heavily. We are at a point in the season where resume and power ranking have just about equal weightings. In this section I always like to point out some schools that I feel are outliers. Georgia and Michigan - both schools are lower on my ballot than how they have been ranked in the AP/Coaches polls week by week. Georgia's computer power rating fell despite their win vs Vanderbilt which caused them to slip in the poll. Michigan is continued to be hurt by their SOS and they may not get the bump they are looking for until they play Penn State. I believe that Michigan is in actuality one of the top 3 teams in the country and has continued to just walk over their opponents. I believe even if they end up dropping a game to Penn State/Ohio State they may still finish in my ballot's top 4. The other team I want to talk about which seems to have been overrated in my ballot every week is once again on my ballot again with a 4-3 record. A&M may best the best 3 loss team in the country but I believe they are certainly being given too much credit for quality losses. This was something that I felt happened last year with my model as well and I have tried to tweak it a bit this year to punish teams that lose but in the case of some of the teams on my ballot, that penalty may not be harsh enough so I will look to revisit that at the end of the season if it continues to give me results I don't like for teams with higher number of losses.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Oklahoma Sooners | |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | |
3 | Washington Huskies | |
4 | Texas Longhorns | |
5 | Florida State Seminoles | |
6 | Alabama Crimson Tide | |
7 | Michigan Wolverines | |
8 | Penn State Nittany Lions | |
9 | Georgia Bulldogs | |
10 | North Carolina Tar Heels | |
11 | Ole Miss Rebels | |
12 | Oregon Ducks | |
13 | LSU Tigers | |
14 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | |
15 | USC Trojans | |
16 | Iowa Hawkeyes | |
17 | Tennessee Volunteers | |
18 | Missouri Tigers | |
19 | Oregon State Beavers | |
20 | Utah Utes | |
21 | Duke Blue Devils | |
22 | Louisville Cardinals | |
23 | Clemson Tigers | |
24 | Texas A&M Aggies | |
25 | Air Force Falcons |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Oklahoma Sooners | 1.03 |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.43 |
3 | Washington Huskies | 0.00 |
4 | Texas Longhorns | 1.31 |
5 | Florida State Seminoles | 0.00 |
6 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1.76 |
7 | Michigan Wolverines | -1.07 |
8 | Penn State Nittany Lions | -0.28 |
9 | Georgia Bulldogs | -0.80 |
10 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 0.00 |
11 | Ole Miss Rebels | 0.35 |
12 | Oregon Ducks | 0.00 |
13 | LSU Tigers | 1.41 |
14 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.00 |
15 | USC Trojans | 0.38 |
16 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 0.88 |
17 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.00 |
18 | Missouri Tigers | 0.00 |
19 | Oregon State Beavers | -1.89 |
20 | Utah Utes | -0.55 |
21 | Duke Blue Devils | -0.66 |
22 | Louisville Cardinals | 0.00 |
23 | Clemson Tigers | 1.62 |
24 | Texas A&M Aggies | 1.14 |
25 | Air Force Falcons | -0.54 |