Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 15, 2023, 1:40 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	4.50
2	Michigan Wolverines	4.41
3	Penn State Nittany Lions	4.40
4	Georgia Bulldogs	4.27
5	Washington Huskies	4.22
6	Florida State Seminoles	4.09
7	Oregon State Beavers	3.95
8	Utah Utes	3.94
9	Oregon Ducks	3.89
10	Alabama Crimson Tide	3.87
11	Oklahoma Sooners	3.79
12	North Carolina Tar Heels	3.73
13	Tennessee Volunteers	3.71
14	USC Trojans	3.67
15	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	3.65
16	Texas Longhorns	3.64
17	Iowa Hawkeyes	3.64
18	Ole Miss Rebels	3.60
19	LSU Tigers	3.59
20	Duke Blue Devils	3.44
21	UCLA Bruins	3.43
22	Louisville Cardinals	3.43
23	Clemson Tigers	3.38
24	Missouri Tigers	3.33
25	Florida Gators	3.32

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.98
2	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
3	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.82
4	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
5	Washington Huskies	-0.07
6	Florida State Seminoles	0.00
7	Oregon State Beavers	1.72
8	Utah Utes	1.70
9	Oregon Ducks	0.00
10	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
11	Oklahoma Sooners	-2.67
12	North Carolina Tar Heels	-0.49
13	Tennessee Volunteers	0.83
14	USC Trojans	0.68
15	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
16	Texas Longhorns	-2.13
17	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.60
18	Ole Miss Rebels	-0.45
19	LSU Tigers	0.00
20	Duke Blue Devils	-0.34
21	UCLA Bruins	1.55
22	Louisville Cardinals	0.00
23	Clemson Tigers	1.62
24	Missouri Tigers	-0.51
25	Florida Gators	0.10

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Air Force Falcons	0.79
James Madison Dukes	0.11
Tulane Green Wave	0.29

Total Score: 18.48