Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 1, 2023, 1:10 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	4.10
2	Penn State Nittany Lions	4.09
3	Georgia Bulldogs	3.96
4	Michigan Wolverines	3.91
5	Washington Huskies	3.88
6	Oregon Ducks	3.88
7	Utah Utes	3.70
8	Oregon State Beavers	3.65
9	USC Trojans	3.64
10	Texas Longhorns	3.60
11	Alabama Crimson Tide	3.60
12	Florida State Seminoles	3.58
13	Washington State Cougars	3.54
14	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	3.46
15	Oklahoma Sooners	3.39
16	Tennessee Volunteers	3.39
17	Maryland Terrapins	3.34
18	UCLA Bruins	3.28
19	Ole Miss Rebels	3.27
20	North Carolina Tar Heels	3.23
21	Louisville Cardinals	3.23
22	LSU Tigers	3.17
23	Wisconsin Badgers	3.15
24	Iowa Hawkeyes	3.15
25	Kentucky Wildcats	3.11

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.52
2	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.87
3	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
4	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
5	Washington Huskies	0.00
6	Oregon Ducks	0.00
7	Utah Utes	3.27
8	Oregon State Beavers	1.76
9	USC Trojans	0.00
10	Texas Longhorns	-3.11
11	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
12	Florida State Seminoles	-0.71
13	Washington State Cougars	0.00
14	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
15	Oklahoma Sooners	-0.44
16	Tennessee Volunteers	1.79
17	Maryland Terrapins	0.35
18	UCLA Bruins	6.91
19	Ole Miss Rebels	0.00
20	North Carolina Tar Heels	-0.96
21	Louisville Cardinals	0.00
22	LSU Tigers	1.65
23	Wisconsin Badgers	1.83
24	Iowa Hawkeyes	1.14
25	Kentucky Wildcats	-0.77

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Miami Hurricanes	1.74
Missouri Tigers	0.92
Duke Blue Devils	0.68
Fresno State Bulldogs	0.35

Total Score: 29.76