Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 1, 2023, 1:10 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 4.10 |
2 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 4.09 |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | 3.96 |
4 | Michigan Wolverines | 3.91 |
5 | Washington Huskies | 3.88 |
6 | Oregon Ducks | 3.88 |
7 | Utah Utes | 3.70 |
8 | Oregon State Beavers | 3.65 |
9 | USC Trojans | 3.64 |
10 | Texas Longhorns | 3.60 |
11 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 3.60 |
12 | Florida State Seminoles | 3.58 |
13 | Washington State Cougars | 3.54 |
14 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 3.46 |
15 | Oklahoma Sooners | 3.39 |
16 | Tennessee Volunteers | 3.39 |
17 | Maryland Terrapins | 3.34 |
18 | UCLA Bruins | 3.28 |
19 | Ole Miss Rebels | 3.27 |
20 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 3.23 |
21 | Louisville Cardinals | 3.23 |
22 | LSU Tigers | 3.17 |
23 | Wisconsin Badgers | 3.15 |
24 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 3.15 |
25 | Kentucky Wildcats | 3.11 |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.52 |
2 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.87 |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
4 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.00 |
5 | Washington Huskies | 0.00 |
6 | Oregon Ducks | 0.00 |
7 | Utah Utes | 3.27 |
8 | Oregon State Beavers | 1.76 |
9 | USC Trojans | 0.00 |
10 | Texas Longhorns | -3.11 |
11 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
12 | Florida State Seminoles | -0.71 |
13 | Washington State Cougars | 0.00 |
14 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.00 |
15 | Oklahoma Sooners | -0.44 |
16 | Tennessee Volunteers | 1.79 |
17 | Maryland Terrapins | 0.35 |
18 | UCLA Bruins | 6.91 |
19 | Ole Miss Rebels | 0.00 |
20 | North Carolina Tar Heels | -0.96 |
21 | Louisville Cardinals | 0.00 |
22 | LSU Tigers | 1.65 |
23 | Wisconsin Badgers | 1.83 |
24 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 1.14 |
25 | Kentucky Wildcats | -0.77 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Miami Hurricanes | 1.74 |
Missouri Tigers | 0.92 |
Duke Blue Devils | 0.68 |
Fresno State Bulldogs | 0.35 |
Total Score: 29.76