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Due_Connection179 Ballot for 2023 Week 5

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Sept. 25, 2023, 11:53 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I watch games all day Saturday then for the games I don't watch I go through that games play-by-play (plus read articles) to see what happened instead of just looking at the box score. Week 5 is my first real shuffle since the pre-season now that we have seen each team for 4 games.

Rank Team Reason
1 Washington Huskies Last Week #1 vs California : Won 59 - 32. If you just look at the box score, you might think "how is this your #1 team when they just gave up 32 pts at home vs a bad Cal team." What you might not realize is that when the starters went out of the game with 11:28 left in the 3rd, the score was 52-12! The Huskie starters have outscored their opponents by 144 points and have played just one series in the 4th quarter all season. They are the only team that hasn't struggled against lesser competition this season, and would be averaging 70 PPG if they played their starters for the whole game. Next Week at Arizona - 18 pt favorites - Prediction : Wins and covers the spread
2 Texas Longhorns Last Week #6 at Baylor : Won 38 - 6. After looking at the full body of work the Longhorns have put together this season, I fully believe that they are currently the 2nd best team. They struggled against Wyoming, but every team not named Washington has struggled vs a worse opponent. Combine that plus they have the current best win (being at #18 Alabama) and this was a pretty easy put as my #2 team. Next Week vs #22 Kansas - 17 pt favorites - Prediction : Wins and covers the spread
3 Georgia Bulldogs Last Week #2 vs UAB : Won 49 - 21. Georgia being under Washington and Texas is probably surprising to most people, but they are here for two reasons. They haven't dominated everyone like Washington has and they don't have a win like Texas does. Looking at Georgia's remaining schedule, they should go 12-0 again and play either LSU or Bama in the SEC Championship Game. That being said, with how their schedule looks, they can't jump either Washington or Texas unless either team loses. This is what happens in a down SEC East and you don't play one of the big West teams. Next Week at Auburn - 14.5 pt favorites - Prediction : Wins and covers the spread
4 Florida State Seminoles Last Week #4 at Clemson : Won 31 - 24. FSU was pretty hard to rank because they have a great win vs LSU then go on to beat Boston College by 2 and needing OT to beat a down Clemson team. They have the same problem as Georgia where their schedule isn't good enough for them to jump either Washington or Texas (or Georgia for that matter), but with interesting games remaining (vs #11 Duke, vs #12 Miami, at Florida) they don't really have to worry about anyone jumping them if they keep winning (unless Ohio State beats up on Penn State on 10/21). Next Week : Bye Week
5 Ohio State Buckeyes Last Week #7 at #9 Notre Dame : Won 17 - 14. Ohio State being #5 has basically everything to do with their offense. Their defense might be the best in the FBS, as it is averaging just 8.5 PPG (and gave up only 14 pts to a Notre Dame team who was averaging nearly 50 PPG coming in). They have two ranked games coming up (at least in my rankings): vs #20 Maryland and vs #6 Penn State. I would like to see Ohio State both win and cover the next few games, and hopefully we can see this offense click more (and not rely almost all on Marvin Harrison Jr). Next Week : Bye Week
6 Penn State Nittany Lions Last Week #8 vs #25 Iowa : Won 31 - 0. I get very high on this team every season early (at least the AP Poll does as well). What's the difference between Penn State and the top 5? Domination (Washington), Best Win (Texas), B2B Champs (Georgia), Great Road Win (Ohio State). There's also this road block, called Ohio State, that seems to always trip up Penn State, and until they beat them I can't personally put them over the Buckeyes. Next Week at Northwestern - 26 pt favorites - Prediction : win but doesn't cover the spread
7 Oregon Ducks Last Week #11 vs #12 Colorado : Won 42 - 6. I fell for the Colorado hype (even though I knew it last week) but this Oregon team is very good. Since the start of the 4th quarter at Texas Tech, Oregon has outscored their opponents 117 - 19. Their season has consisted of: obliterating an FCS team, stealing the hearts of Texas Tech, stomping Hawai'i, and killing the Prime hype train. If it wasn't for the Tech game, I would probably have Oregon #6 over Penn State, but we will just have to see how the next month plays out (at Stanford, at #1 Washington, vs #11 Washington State). Next Week at Stanford - 27 pt favorites - Prediction : win and covers the spread
8 Michigan Wolverines Last Week #3 vs Rutgers : Won 31 - 7. Michigan has a similar problem to last season, where they can't seem to get started in games. The last two weeks they have gone into the locker room in one score games at home vs Bowling Green and Rutgers. They outscored them 34 - 0 in the 2nd half in those games, but it's still concerning to see vs lesser opponents (even though Rutgers has looked pretty solid so far). Next Week at Nebraska - 18 pt favories - Prediction : win and covers the spread
9 USC Trojans Last Week #5 at Arizona State : Won 42 - 28. After throttling Stanford at home, USC struggled a little bit at Arizona State (and the Devils trick play offense) in the 1st half. If you take out Cal, USC's other seven opponents have a combined 3 losses so far, so USC fans shouldn't be too worried about this ranking. If USC continues to play well, then they will be right there in the playoff picture. Next Week at Colorado - 21.5 pt favorites - Prediction : win and doesn't cover the spread
10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Last Week #9 vs #7 Ohio State : Lost 14 - 17. The Irish are possibly 1 man away from being in the top 5 as they fielded only 10 players on the Ohio State go ahead TD. Why do they have this ranking? 21-pt win over 3-1 NC State. Outscored opponents 139 - 23 (not counting the NC State or Ohio State games). You shouldn't lose too many spots losing to the #5 team by 3 pts. We will find out whether this ranking is worthy pretty quick with their next 3 opponents being a combined 12 - 0. Next Week at #12 Duke - 5.5 pt favorites - Prediction : win and cover the spread
11 Washington State Cougars Last Week #20 vs #18 Oregon State : Won 38 - 35. In the 1st ever PAC-2 game, Washington State comes out on top. The Cougars have a pretty good win on the road at Colorado State, and they pair that with a couple of ranked (at the time) wins at home vs Wisconsin and Oregon State. Washington State has a relatively easy PAC 12 schedule this season with the only remaining ranked games being at #7 Oregon and at #1 Washington, so maybe they can put a run together and flirt with a 10-win season. Next Week : Bye Week
12 Duke Blue Devils Last Week #19 vs UConn : Won 41 - 7. Since dominating Clemson, the Blue Devils have flown under the radar outscoring their opponents 149 - 35 this season. I believe how they beat Clemson is better than Miami, Oklahoma, and Utah's best wins now, but they do have a very rough schedule coming up with teams having a combined 22 - 3 record in their next six games. Next Week vs #10 Notre Dame - 5.5 pt underdogs - lose and doesn't cover the spread
13 Miami Hurricanes Last Week #21 at Temple : Won 41 - 7. We have been cruising vs the teams that we are supposed to be destroying and the A&M game didn't really feel in trouble during the 2nd half of that game. With Clemson being 2 - 2 already, our schedule the rest of the way isn't that impressive, so we need style points going forward + taking care of business at #16 UNC (10/14) and at #4 FSU (11/11). Don't want to say too much, just that I'm very proud of our current start. Next Week : Bye Week
14 Oklahoma Sooners Last Week #15 at Cincinnati : Won 20 - 6. This team is very weird. They have two games vs G5 teams and two games vs P5 teams. In those G5 games, they have outscored them by an incredible 139 - 17. In those P5 games, they have outscored them by 40 - 19. Looking at this it seems that their offense is a little overrated than what media is making them out to be, but only time will actually tell. Next Week vs Iowa State - 20 pt favorites - Prediction : win and cover the spread
15 Utah Utes Last Week #10 vs UCLA : Won 14 - 7. Second straight week that Utah has fallen at least three spots in my poll. The main reason is I think they have a bottom 5 offense in the P5 that is being held up by a top 3 defense. Next Week at #20 Oregon State - 3 pt underdogs - Prediction : win outright (and this game will make the B1G regret picking neither team / might be 0 offensive TDs scored)
16 North Carolina Tar Heels Last Week #13 at Pitt : Won 41 - 24. I don't really have anything against UNC, just that I think the teams above them have a better body of work than the Tar Heels right now (probably even Mizzou, but we'll get to that). They have been in the driver's seat for just about all of their games, then you see that it took them 2OT to beat Appalachian State this season and you start scratching your head. They have a couple of big games coming up after the bye week against two undefeated teams: vs Syracuse (10/7) and vs #13 Miami (10/14). If UNC is 6 - 0 on 10/15, then they might (knocks on wood) be on a fast track to the ACC Championship and a NY6 Bowl. Next Week : Bye Week
17 Missouri Tigers Last Week NR vs Memphis : Won 34 - 27. Mizzou went up two TDs late vs Memphis (then allowed a Prevent defense TD at the end) but looked like the better team for a majority of the game. This coming after upsetting (then ranked #15) Kansas State, but then you look at week 2 and see the 4-pt win at home vs Middle Tennessee State and don't know what to think. That MTSU game is currently why I have Mizzou ranked #17 and not higher, but they have enough ranked SEC games to take care of that if they continue winning. Next Week at Vanderbilt - 13.5 pt favorites - Prediction : win and cover the spread
18 LSU Tigers Last Week #14 vs Arkansas : Won 34 - 31. LSU could easily be 4 - 0 right now, but is also a couple plays away from being 2 - 2. They go from not being able to convert several 1st half goal line situations vs Florida State - to stomping Grambling State and Mississippi State - to needing a game winning FG with 5 seconds left to beat a pretty bad Arkansas team at home. The SEC as a whole has been down the season, and that goes into LSU (and Bama) being ranked this low, but there are enough good games were if LSU wins out then they would be in the conversation for sure (maybe even if they played Georgia close). Next Week at Ole Miss - 3 pt favorites - Prediction : lose outright
19 Alabama Crimson Tide Last Week #17 vs #16 Ole Miss : Won 24 - 10. Alabama is ranked #19 because of two main reasons. 1) Texas looked like the better team basically from start-to-finish when they played at Alabama. 2) They looked terrible at USF. There are also rumors that Saban is thinking about retiring after this season, but I won't fully believe them until it actually happens. Next Week at Mississippi State - 14.5 pt favorites - Prediction : win but doesn't cover
20 Oregon State Beavers Last Week #18 at #20 Washington State : Lost 35 - 38. Solid start this season, and I'm not going to punish a team too much for losing to my #11 team on the road. PAC 12 seems tough this season, so pretty excited to see how Oregon State does. Next Week vs #15 Utah - 3 pt favorites - Prediction : lose outright
21 Maryland Terrapins Last Week NR at Michigan State : Won 31 - 9. I'm pretty sure most voters will have Maryland in their top 25 after this next week, so I just wanted to be among the early ones who have seen them outscore their opponents 149 - 49 this season. Next Week vs Indiana - 14 pt favorites - Prediction : win and covers the spread
22 Kentucky Wildcats Last Week NR at Vanderbilt : Won 45 - 28. I almost put the Wildcats in my top 25 last week, but didn't think that they should jump a few other teams after beating Akron. Vanderbilt isn't much better, but being 4 - 0 and looking like they have a decent offense, I decided to put Kentucky in here because I fully believe that they will beat Florida and go into Georgia undefeated. Next Week vs Florida - 2.5 pt favorites - Prediction : win and covers the spread
23 Kansas Jayhawks Last Week #24 vs BYU : Won 38 - 27. I started this season with Kansas at #25 and said that as long as they keep winning that I would keep them in. This pre-season addition has eventually led to a ranked re-match with the Longhorns. Great job Jayhawks! Next Week at #2 Texas - 17 pt underdogs - Prediction : lose and doesn't cover the spread
24 Fresno State Bulldogs Last Week NR vs Kent State : Won 53 - 10. They have two wins vs bottom-tier P5 teams (39 - 35 win at Purdue and a 29 pt shutout at Arizona State). Add in a 2OT win at home vs Eastern Washington (little iffy but great FCS school) and a 43-pt beatdown of Kent State, and I felt pretty comfortable putting Fresno State into the top 25 for this week. Next Week vs Nevada - 24.5 pt favorites - Prediction : win and covers the spread
25 Georgia State Panthers Last Week NR at Coastal Carolina : Won 30 - 17. Georgia State started with a rocky-win vs Rhode Island before putting together three straight solid wins where they looked like the better team on the field from start-to-finish (21-pt win vs UConn, 16-pt win at Charlotte, and 13-pt win at Coastal Carolina). I looked at a few teams here before I picked the Panthers (that included Wisconsin, Kansas State, and Syracuse), but at the end of the day I felt like Georgia State has done more than those 3 teams (and the other teams not mentioned) to be inside the top 25. Next Week vs Troy - 1.5 pt favorites - Prediction : win and covers the spread (lock of the week to cover)

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