Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Sept. 24, 2023, 4:19 a.m.
Overall Rationale: This poll is purely results based; no preseason rankings were taken into account, there is no such thing as a ranked matchup, and it is not intended to be predictive in any way, which is why it will change drastically week to week, even now that we're starting to get real data to play with. My poll is a hybrid poll, which uses a fairly simple algorithm first and foremost. Human adjustment is very, very strictly controlled to being between teams which have the same number of wins and losses, especially in situations where a head-to-head game exists between the two teams. The computer side of the poll is the meat and potatoes, and is deferred to whenever possible; human adjustment is a last resort. Total win-loss record is the first thing considered, after which the quality of opponents beaten. Opponent "quality" is broken up into 3 major categories, first and foremost; P5, G5, and FCS teams. Later in the season, total number of opponent wins will come into play, but for now the data is still stark enough that this parameter isn't really necessary. The human adjustment I allow myself to do is based purely upon the relative strength of opponents between two teams who have an equal number of wins and losses, and an equal number of P5/G5/FCS opponents. For the purposes of human adjustment only, I break the G5 into a higher and lower tier, with the higher tier being AAC and MWC, and the lower tier being everybody else. For the purposes of this poll, ND is considered a P5 team and all other independents are considered G5.
Rank | Team | Reason |
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1 |
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FSU is ranked first because they are one of only two teams that have played and beaten 3 P5 schools and 1 G5. They are ranked above UNC because UNC was taken to OT in their own house by a G5 team. |
2 |
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UNC is the second team who has played and beaten 3 P5 teams and 1 G5 team. Their game against App State lands them in the lower spot to FSU. |
3 |
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Texas has played no FCS opponents. and has gone 4-0 against 2 P5 teams and 2 G5 teams. They are first in this second tier of teams, due to the human-subjective quality of opponents, and their winning margins over these teams. |
4 |
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USC has played no FCS opponents, and has gone 4-0 against 2 P5 teams and 2 G5 teams. Their human-subjective quality of opponents is lower than Texas, and 3 of their 4 games were played at home, vs. Texas with two home wins against G5 teams and two away wins against P5 teams. |
5 |
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Washington has played no FCS opponents, and has gone 4-0 against 2 P5 teams and 2 G5 teams. Their human-subjective quality of opponents is lower than USC, with the same home/away lineup of one P5 away, and everybody else at home. |
6 |
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Penn State has beaten 3 P5 opponents, and 1 FCS opponent. They are the top of the third tier, who has played one FCS and three P5. No game they have been in has been in question. |
7 |
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Utah has beaten 3 P5 opponents and 1 FCS opponent. They are ranked lower than Penn State due to playing close games against UCLA and Baylor. |
8 |
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Louisville has beaten 3 P5 opponents and 1 FCS opponent. They have the lowest human-subjective quality of opponents, having played GT, Indiana, and BC to end up at the bottom of this third tier. |
9 |
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Ohio State has beaten 2 P5 opponents, 1 G5 opponent, and 1 FCS opponent. They are at the top of this 4th tier, based on having beaten both of their P5 opponents in their own houses. |
10 |
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Fresno State has beaten 2 P5 opponents, 1 G5 opponent, and 1 FCS opponent. They are second in this tier for beating their two P5 opponents in their own houses, but with a lower quality of opponent than Ohio State has faced. |
11 |
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Duke has beaten 2 P5 opponents, 1 G5, and 1 FCS. |
12 |
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Oregon has beaten 2 P5 opponents, 1 G5 and 1 FCS. They are ranked lower than Duke due to the quality of opponents. |
13 |
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Maryland has beaten 2 P5 opponents, 1 G5 and 1 FCS. |
14 |
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Kansas has beaten 2 P5 opponents, 1 G5 and 1 FCS. They played much closer games against basically all of these teams than anybody else in this 4th tier aside from Wazzu. |
15 |
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The Cougs have beaten 2 P5 opponents, 1 G5 and 1 FCS. |
16 |
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Miami is at the top of the 5th tier, having beaten 1 P5 opponent, 2 G5 opponents, and 1 FCS opponent to stay undefeated. They are ranked higher than teams like Georgia or Oklahoma due to the human-subjective quality of their opponents. |
17 |
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Oklahoma is undefeated, having beaten 1 P5 opponent, 2 G5 and 1 FCS. |
18 |
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Syracuse is undefeated, having beaten 1 P5 opponent, 2 G5, and 1 FCS. Their one P5 win was an away game, therefore they are ranked above Michigan. |
19 |
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James Madison is undefeated, having beaten 1 P5 opponent, 2 G5, and 1 FCS. |
20 |
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Michigan is undefeated, having beaten 1 P5 opponent, 2 G5, and 1 FCS. They have not played an away game yet this season. |
21 |
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Kentucky is undefeated, having beaten 1 P5 opponent, 2 G5, and 1 FCS. |
22 |
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Georgia is undefeated, having beaten 1 P5 opponent, 2 G5, and 1 FCS. |
23 |
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Notre Dame is in their own 6th tier, being the first one-loss team in the ranking, but also a team that has played one more game than anybody else in this ranking. They have beaten 1 P5 team, 2 G5 teams, and 1 FCS team, with a single loss against a P5 team at home. |
24 |
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Colorado tops tier 7, with no FCS teams played, and wins against 2 P5 opponents, and 1 G5 opponent, as well as a single loss to a P5 team in their own house. |
25 |
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LSU has wins over 2 P5 teams, 1 FCS team, and a single loss against a P5 team at a neutral site. The FCS team and the loss at a neutral site vs a true away game slot them in below Colorado to finish out the poll. |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
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1 |
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0.64 |
2 |
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2.71 |
3 |
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0.00 |
4 |
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0.57 |
5 |
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0.00 |
6 |
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0.00 |
7 |
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0.21 |
8 |
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4.09 |
9 |
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-1.17 |
10 |
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3.77 |
11 |
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0.35 |
12 |
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-0.77 |
13 |
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2.98 |
14 |
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1.09 |
15 |
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0.00 |
16 |
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0.00 |
17 |
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-0.36 |
18 |
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2.50 |
19 |
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5.89 |
20 |
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-3.37 |
21 |
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1.25 |
22 |
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-2.51 |
23 |
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-1.08 |
24 |
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0.93 |
25 |
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-0.88 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
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1.76 |
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0.44 |
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0.67 |
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0.33 |
Total Score: 40.32