Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 24, 2023, 11:14 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	3.95
2	Penn State Nittany Lions	3.92
3	Georgia Bulldogs	3.85
4	Utah Utes	3.81
5	Washington Huskies	3.77
6	Oregon Ducks	3.71
7	Michigan Wolverines	3.67
8	USC Trojans	3.59
9	Florida State Seminoles	3.57
10	Washington State Cougars	3.42
11	Oregon State Beavers	3.40
12	Alabama Crimson Tide	3.39
13	Texas Longhorns	3.38
14	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	3.31
15	North Carolina Tar Heels	3.24
16	UCLA Bruins	3.24
17	LSU Tigers	3.23
18	Tennessee Volunteers	3.21
19	Oklahoma Sooners	3.17
20	Louisville Cardinals	3.12
21	Maryland Terrapins	3.11
22	Duke Blue Devils	3.07
23	Ole Miss Rebels	3.05
24	Florida Gators	3.04
25	Wisconsin Badgers	3.00

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.57
2	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.77
3	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
4	Utah Utes	1.04
5	Washington Huskies	0.00
6	Oregon Ducks	0.02
7	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
8	USC Trojans	0.00
9	Florida State Seminoles	-0.04
10	Washington State Cougars	0.23
11	Oregon State Beavers	2.80
12	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
13	Texas Longhorns	-2.89
14	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
15	North Carolina Tar Heels	0.00
16	UCLA Bruins	7.16
17	LSU Tigers	0.00
18	Tennessee Volunteers	1.67
19	Oklahoma Sooners	-0.85
20	Louisville Cardinals	0.35
21	Maryland Terrapins	0.18
22	Duke Blue Devils	-1.25
23	Ole Miss Rebels	0.00
24	Florida Gators	0.00
25	Wisconsin Badgers	0.01

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Miami Hurricanes	1.38
Missouri Tigers	0.44
Kansas Jayhawks	0.47
Fresno State Bulldogs	0.12

Total Score: 22.24