Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Oct. 30, 2022, 1:56 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 10 notes: Deservedness keeps teams such as Texas out when I would have them over some of the teams in this poll. General: 1st layer, computer portion: SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. 2nd layer, human portion: home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). 3rd layer, human portion: wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. 4th layer, computer portion: Deservedness = team cannot be ranked over another team with 2+ fewer losses (ex: 5-3 Texas can be ranked over 6-2 Syracuse, but Texas cannot be ranked over 7-1 Coastal Carolina even if rankings have Texas over Coastal Carolina and/or I think Texas is better than Coastal Carolina).
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | Even though Michigan has a better comparative win against Penn State, one game isn’t enough to knock them off #1 |
2 | Tennessee Volunteers | Distance between them and #1 shrank |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | Score was closer than game actually was |
4 | Alabama Crimson Tide | Bye did nothing to drop them |
5 | Michigan Wolverines | Big rivalry games don’t depend on margin of victory |
6 | Clemson Tigers | Bye did nothing to drop them |
7 | TCU Horned Frogs | Computer portion has them lower |
8 | Oregon Ducks | Four PAC teams are very close together |
9 | UCLA Bruins | Four PAC teams are very close together |
10 | Utah Utes | Four PAC teams are very close together |
11 | USC Trojans | Four PAC teams are very close together, but USC has had easiest of schedules so far |
12 | Penn State Nittany Lions | Game was much closer than final score. If anything, the loss to Michigan was worse than to Ohio State |
13 | Kansas State Wildcats | The blowout over Oklahoma State might be a fluke, but beating a ranked opponent with a backup quarterback is impressive and their only two losses are to other teams also ranked |
14 | LSU Tigers | Not sure what kind of result in the Alabama game could drop LSU |
15 | Ole Miss Rebels | They might not even move even if they lose to Alabama after the bye week |
16 | Illinois Fighting Illini | Barring a loss to Michigan State, Illinois might not be tested until Purdue or Michigan |
17 | Oregon State Beavers | Computer portion has them lower, but they’re only did was against Utah |
18 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | Computer portion has them higher. 48-0 loss never looks good, but I’m willing to say this was a very big outlier. If they look like crap, they might continue to drop |
19 | Syracuse Orange | Losing to Notre Dame isn’t as bad as many people think. They’re next three games will truly show who they are |
20 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | Louisville is an up and down team, but this could be another situation where a portion of this was a flukey conference situation |
21 | North Carolina Tar Heels | Computer portion has them lower than this. They might be fraudulent, but for now they pass. |
22 | Tulane Green Wave | They would be lower if not for Deservedness |
23 | NC State Wolfpack | They would be lower if not for Deservedness |
24 | Maryland Terrapins | They would be lower if not for Deservedness |
25 | UCF Knights | They would be lower if not for Deservedness. Next five would be some combination of Cincinnati, Troy, South Alabama, Washington, and Boise State/UTSA |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.39 |
2 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.00 |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
4 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1.12 |
5 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.00 |
6 | Clemson Tigers | 0.00 |
7 | TCU Horned Frogs | -0.06 |
8 | Oregon Ducks | 0.00 |
9 | UCLA Bruins | 0.03 |
10 | Utah Utes | 0.49 |
11 | USC Trojans | 0.00 |
12 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.76 |
13 | Kansas State Wildcats | 0.00 |
14 | LSU Tigers | 0.00 |
15 | Ole Miss Rebels | -0.42 |
16 | Illinois Fighting Illini | -0.19 |
17 | Oregon State Beavers | 1.81 |
18 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 0.00 |
19 | Syracuse Orange | 0.16 |
20 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 0.00 |
21 | North Carolina Tar Heels | -0.58 |
22 | Tulane Green Wave | -0.40 |
23 | NC State Wolfpack | 0.00 |
24 | Maryland Terrapins | 0.00 |
25 | UCF Knights | 0.00 |