Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 30, 2022, 10:50 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Likelihood of wins+: A metric that rewards good performance against difficult opponents. If a team plays a nobody schedule, they don't deserve by default a high rank until they prove it on the field against good competition. It attempts to answer the question of how likely is it that an average team would have the same record or better. The values shown are that computed likelihood. This methodology is more volatile earlier in the season.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00116531
2	TCU Horned Frogs	0.00181724
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00263944
4	Michigan Wolverines	0.00467009
5	Clemson Tigers	0.00531777
6	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00540701
7	Oregon Ducks	0.0163919
8	Georgia Bulldogs	0.0178497
9	Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.0395093
10	UCLA Bruins	0.043839
11	USC Trojans	0.051159
12	Kansas State Wildcats	0.05534
13	North Carolina Tar Heels	0.0644705
14	Illinois Fighting Illini	0.0686359
15	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.0749325
16	Ole Miss Rebels	0.0764537
17	Tulane Green Wave	0.0765562
18	LSU Tigers	0.0816654
19	NC State Wolfpack	0.101367
20	Maryland Terrapins	0.102882
21	Utah Utes	0.126974
22	Troy Trojans	0.130327
23	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	0.140621
24	Syracuse Orange	0.141723
25	Oregon State Beavers	0.154961

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Tennessee Volunteers	0.29
2	TCU Horned Frogs	1.61
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
4	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
5	Clemson Tigers	0.00
6	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
7	Oregon Ducks	0.00
8	Georgia Bulldogs	-4.03
9	Oklahoma State Cowboys	2.85
10	UCLA Bruins	0.00
11	USC Trojans	0.00
12	Kansas State Wildcats	0.00
13	North Carolina Tar Heels	0.35
14	Illinois Fighting Illini	0.00
15	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
16	Ole Miss Rebels	-0.77
17	Tulane Green Wave	0.00
18	LSU Tigers	0.00
19	NC State Wolfpack	0.26
20	Maryland Terrapins	2.24
21	Utah Utes	-1.52
22	Troy Trojans	2.99
23	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	-0.06
24	Syracuse Orange	-0.04
25	Oregon State Beavers	-0.06

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Liberty Flames	0.09
UCF Knights	0.11

Total Score: 17.25