NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2022 Week 10
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 1, 2022, 2:43 a.m.
Overall Rationale: 2 big changes to my rankings this week: 1) Now I find the projected win totals via Kalman filter on the margins of victory for each D1 game because my previous method was fairly ad hoc and overconfident, and 2) I've changed the pseudocounts so that each team starts with a 1/2 win and 1/2 loss, rather than a 1/4 win the 1/4 loss, which is more consistent with the spread of estimated team strengths. As before, this is a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate from a Bradley-Terry win model, based on each team's projected win total at the end of the regular season.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
31.61 |
| 2 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
30.31 |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
29.02 |
| 4 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
25.23 |
| 5 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
25.23 |
| 6 |
Clemson Tigers
|
23.59 |
| 7 |
Oregon Ducks
|
22.19 |
| 8 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
22.06 |
| 9 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
19.87 |
| 10 |
UCLA Bruins
|
19.87 |
| 11 |
USC Trojans
|
19.52 |
| 12 |
LSU Tigers
|
18.91 |
| 13 |
Holy Cross Crusaders
|
18.30 |
| 14 |
Utah Utes
|
17.59 |
| 15 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
17.40 |
| 16 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
17.11 |
| 17 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
16.53 |
| 18 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
16.09 |
| 19 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
15.79 |
| 20 |
Syracuse Orange
|
15.57 |
| 21 |
Jackson State Tigers
|
15.51 |
| 22 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|
15.21 |
| 23 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
14.97 |
| 24 |
Princeton Tigers
|
14.80 |
| 25 |
NC State Wolfpack
|
14.72 |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.29 |
| 2 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.43 |
| 6 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
-0.69 |
| 9 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.21 |
| 10 |
UCLA Bruins
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
USC Trojans
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.52 |
| 13 |
Holy Cross Crusaders
|
12.20 |
| 14 |
Utah Utes
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
-0.19 |
| 17 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
1.39 |
| 19 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
-0.01 |
| 20 |
Syracuse Orange
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
Jackson State Tigers
|
4.22 |
| 22 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
-0.69 |
| 24 |
Princeton Tigers
|
1.24 |
| 25 |
NC State Wolfpack
|
-0.26 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
1.57 |
Liberty Flames
|
0.09 |
UCF Knights
|
0.11 |
Total Score: 24.11