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crownebeach Ballot for 2021 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 25, 2021, noon

Overall Rationale: My judgments are based primarily on position group outlooks (which I cobble together using a combination of Athlon's returning starter data and position group grades, FPI team efficiencies, and my perception of player performance from game action). I incorporate recruiting rankings and impact players, coordinator hires, and the like, but not in any organized way.

Rank Team Reason
1 Clemson Tigers Clemson's defense wasn't up to the big moments last year, but it's much more seasoned this year (four returning DBs, four returning DL). The offense is where my concerns are, but of the obvious top teams, Clemson's situation with D.J. Uiagalelei is the one that worries me the least. They didn't miss a beat offensively when he filled in for Trevor Lawrence last year.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide This will be more like Old Alabama than New Alabama. The defense is very, very deep, and they had a lot of underclassmen grow up under fire. The offense, on the other hand, could legitimately suck -- Bryce Young might be fine, but losing your OC and half your starting lineup is not. They will be scary by the end of the season, but they could be in a lot of rock fights early where you don't know if they have a put-away scoring drive in them.
3 Ohio State Buckeyes In my judgment, Ohio State is the most talented roster in the country, but the talent is clustered on offense. They have a lot of players on defense who have spent time in the system, but not a ton of players who've really gotten snaps in live action. That means there's more downside than we're used to from the Buckeyes, but if C.J. Stroud is even 75% of the QB that Justin Fields was, they will run the table in the conference.
4 Oregon Ducks The strength of the Ducks will be their pass defense. They have experience on the back end, a quality pass rush, and they have very experienced linebackers. That makes the matchup with Ohio State a very interesting clash of styles. I'm also higher than most are on Anthony Brown -- if that's your floor at quarterback, you can absolutely go 11-1.
5 Oklahoma Sooners A lot of upside. Spencer Rattler was fine last year. He wasn't as good as Oklahoma fans thought he was, but wasn't as bad as the critics argued from his shaky early-season play. The defense has grown in leaps and bounds, but their main weapons are line shifts and pressure disguises -- they are very good at coming and getting your quarterback, but if you can block their pressure, they don't hold up to being picked on downfield. 
6 Texas A&M Aggies They're less talented than Georgia, but they have to replace a whole lot less, too. This is going to be a very good defensive team. The secondary makes good decisions and reacts quickly -- they might give Alabama very real problems, given Bryce Young's inexperience and the loss of the two guys in the West division that actually tested TAMU vertically last year. The question for me isn't quarterback, where they'll be adequate and well-coached; it's offensive line, where they're turning over four guys and moving the fifth to a new position. 
7 Georgia Bulldogs I don't like J.T. Daniels. I don't get why everyone is over the moon about him -- he was extremely mediocre at USC, and everyone raved about him there too, so I think he's just one of those guys who looks like a starting QB is supposed to look or something. I have definite concerns. Tood Monken is an excellent OC, and they will be able to run the ball with authority, but the dreams of a high-powered vertical offense are...premature. A national championship is possible, but the defense is super raw, and they're gonna need to draw the right matchups to protect their secondary.
8 Iowa State Cyclones All of ISU's strengths have been covered in abundance on this sub, so I won't rehash them all here. The only question mark I have is on the lines -- they were good but not amazing in pass pro last year, and the breakthrough Big 12 teams of the last few years (2016 WVU, 2017 TCU, 2019 Baylor) have all had issues winning the point of attack when they came up against teams with big, highly recruited blockers and pass rushers.  Line play is the biggest thing that separates teams with playoff upside from teams with national championship upside.
9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish I am higher on Notre Dame than others -- it's not that I don't see the attrition issues, but there just aren't a lot of teams out there that are primed to capitalize and move above them. Their coordinators are good, Kyren Williams and Kyle Hamilton are great, and their recruiting last year was first-class. 
10 Washington Huskies Dylan Morris looks super mediocre to me, and I fully expect that he will eventually lose this job. I can't pick them to win the Pac-12 unless their quarterback situation improves demonstrably. I like everything else, though. Their linebackers corps will be solid at worst, and if ZTF is actually ahead of schedule, they could be even better; they have proper size on the DL for the first time in a while; and their offensive front situation is stable and strong. 
11 Florida Gators Emory Jones is a proper Mullen QB who will open up the run game, and though there was some attrition on offense, it was spread evenly. There shouldn't be too many weaknesses. The defense really scares me, though. I actually really like Todd Grantham, even though his third-down defense is a meme; they do other things very well, and I wonder if the roster turnover won't help them to some degree.
12 Cincinnati Bearcats The challenge for a G5 team against top-25 Power 5 teams is the same as the challenge a top-25 P5 team faces when it plays a playoff team -- if everything goes right, you have enough top-end talent to keep up, but you don't have the margin for error, injury, or missed development that a team on that next rung of the ladder does. Cincinnati isn't a top-four team, but they're good enough to hang around with and maybe even beat one on the right day.
13 Iowa Hawkeyes I don't worry about replacing defensive line production very much. As long as you have adequate size up front, you should be fine. It's linebacker and corner that I worry about replacing, and Iowa returns all of that from last year. Offensively, they're going to suck, because Brian Ferentz is either incapable of calling a strong offense or philosophically opposed to it. But the flip side of that is that losing experience at receiver won't hurt them because it's not important to them stylistically. 
14 North Carolina Tar Heels I think Sam Howell is largely as good as advertised, but I don't really get the North Carolina hype. There's definitely a world where they outscore everybody they play 52-42, but I am the biggest Jay Bateman hater on the planet -- I just do not see how this team gets better defensively after losing Chazz Surratt, who was their best player by an order of magnitude. I don't hate them as a pick to win the Coastal, but the division has improved enough that they could fall as far as fourth.
15 Wisconsin Badgers I have no idea how good Graham Mertz is, because of all the Covid-related shenanigans. If he's really good, they could challenge Ohio State for the conference. If he's closer to what we saw last year, I do think they lose to Iowa. They're a high-floor, high-ceiling team, which is a pretty healthy place to be.
16 USC Trojans USC always has talent, but they just haven't looked as muscular as they used to -- development is a serious problem. The upside is there, though; they improved at positions of need, and their coordinators are quite good. Texas fans thought they hated Todd Orlando, but what you have to understand is that between Charlie Strong's last class and Tom Herman's first class, hardly any of those guys were even still on the roster -- that was a young defense, and the few veterans they had were on the shelf hurt. Orlando is good at his job and they have good options to create pressure.
17 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Great team brings roster back, story at 10. I picked them to beat Texas and win the Sun Belt. Good talk. 
18 Texas Longhorns Pete Kwiatkowski at DC was a major coup, and I do think Texas is going to be decent, but Sam Ehlinger did so much to carry an otherwise incredibly crappy offense that I just don't put any stock in their returning experience. Sark can coach, and although I expect that there will eventually be program drama, I don't think it will happen in year one with a serviceable roster.
19 Pittsburgh Panthers I am a Pitt Panthers true believer. Mark Whipple needs more time to iron out what hey do on offense, and they lose more on the OL than other similarly situated teams, but they have enough options at the skill positions to manufacture points in a way that I don't think they could previously. Defensively, I am very pleased to see that they bring back their corners and their linebackers. Their press-quarters scheme has not been solved in any meaningful way, not even by the elite teams in college football, and they will create a high % of negative plays.
20 Miami Hurricanes I think there was some overreaction potential to last year,  and I am not sure how much we can expect from D'Eriq King either. But there's some talent here, and although I don't think they're beating Bama, they probably aren't gonna lose by 50 either. 
21 Boise State Broncos Coverage of Boise State is really colored by the inability of pundits to understand tempo effects. The offense wasn't as good as its raw per-game numbers, and the defense wasn't as bad. Their turnover margin should regress toward something closer to the national average, because their pressure rate was pretty solid on defense; that will reverse some of the negative trends in their defensive scoring and yardage stats. Offensively, I'm hopeful that they'll stick with their multiple roots, but if they do go Air Raid or otherwise pass-heavy, they have options both from the backfield and out wide. Hank Bachmeier is quite good, if the OL can hold up under a little better under a pass rush than they have the last two years.
22 Virginia Tech Hokies I have good news and bad news. The bad news is that I don't think Justin Fuente is ever going to get this thing all the way turned around. The good news is that I think there is enough on the current roster to halt last year's backslide -- a 4-0 start isn't totally off the table, and 9-3 is not unrealistic. 
23 UCLA Bruins Yup, I'm going there. This is one of a handful of teams in the country that has actual returning experience that's not strictly Covid-driven -- they went for a pseudo-youth movement and they have a couple of very special players who've been with them for a while. I have them favored over LSU and am projecting about 8 wins.
24 Penn State Nittany Lions I don't have a whole bunch of good feeling about Sean Clifford, but I do like the talent on the roster and the Mike Yurcich hire. They aren't going to contend for the conference with the issues on both sides of the LOS, but they should have a stabilizing get-right season.
25 Oklahoma State Cowboys I really, really, *really* do not like what Spencer Sanders brings. I know his physical talent is there, but the guy is a mistake machine, and when the fan base is begging the coach to pull the guy it's definitely an indicator that the offense is in a bad place. This was a defensive-minded team last year, which was weird to watch, but they will be quite good on that side of the ball again, and that should be enough to get them up and ranked.

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