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Charlemagne42 Ballot for 2021 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 23, 2021, 6:53 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I run a computer model which takes *only* the current season's results - i.e. wins, losses, scores - as inputs. The result, at the end of the season, is intended to reflect what each team has accomplished. Naturally, a computer model with very little data has very little use. For the first several weeks of each season, I use a human ballot, followed by merging my computer model's output with human tweaks which diminish rapidly in size from one week to the next. Basically, I let the computer do more of the talking as more games are played, and by about halfway through the season it does its thing and I merely report what it says. The model is based only on scores of FBS games. (Previous iterations included FCS teams. I'm on a new computer, the old model didn't survive the transition, I took the opportunity to upgrade to a new data source. The new source is a lot faster, but doesn't have FCS results or lower available.) The model weights games based on the rating of the opponent: losing to the '01 'Canes hurts a lot less than losing to Northwest Alaska State Technical Community College, but beating NWASTCC helps a lot less than beating the '01 'Canes. There is a tiny predictive component, which considers the likely outcome of the remaining schedule. This helps to stabilize the model by mid-season, and avoids unusual late-season jumps (for example, Auburn jumping after losing to Alabama, because their strength of schedule went up). Sorry for the wall of text, but this is my once-a-season explanation of how the computer works, and the poll input interface won't let us format things nicely. I'd love to break this into paragraphs, but I can't. Last: this pre-season poll is kind of all over the place. For the most part, it's aiming to describe where CFB is now, but some teams are placed as predictions of what direction I think they're going. In essence, it's where I think poll momentum probably *should* start for this season.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Until Proven Otherwise.
2 Oklahoma Sooners Lincoln's diary, December 30, 2021: "They say that if you fail at something 4 times, you only succeed if you try again a 5th time. That's why my game plan for tomorrow is to implement a 5th down. My offenses excel at the unexpected, and at forcing defenses into situations they don't have an answer for. This bold innovation in the offensive space should take even the referees by surprise. I fully expect to take advantage of their complete shock, and immediately score a touchdown. It will be a bittersweet moment for me. On the one hand, I will be proud to watch the results of my paradigmatic insight unfold. On the other, like with every rule-bending play I draw up, I know that the moment I put it on tape for the rest of college football to copy is the moment it ceases to be wholly mine. Diary, have you ever felt grief for a sketch scribbled on a whiteboard in less time than it takes Eric Gray to run from end zone to end zone? It's the kind of pain I can share only with you, my closest friend and most leak-proof confidant. Good night, diary - and Boomer Sooner."
3 Ohio State Buckeyes Who are the Ohio State Buckeyes? What exactly is it that they do? Do they even play their games? How is it that they keep ending up in the playoffs? We've been asking ourselves these questions since at least February, 2020.
4 Georgia Bulldogs Kirby's goal for this season: meet expectations. Florida is out a lot of last year's production on both sides of the ball. Don't overlook Mizzou, or Tennessee. If Georgia meets expectations, they will play in Atlanta for a playoff ticket.
5 Clemson Tigers That's right, I'm disrespecting li'l ole Clempson. Whatcha gonna do about it, Dabo?
6 Iowa State Cyclones If ever there were a year, a magical season for the 'Clones to suddenly appear from within the rustling stalks of corn, make manifest their swirling, seething outrage, claim a championship, and then vanish as mysteriously as they came - it's this one.
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish ND has two matchups scheduled against teams in my pre-season top 10, both ranked below them. They miss Clemson this season. USC, though ranked by many, I believe is hugely overrated - ND should beat them handily and propel themselves further up the polls (maybe further than they belong... again). Can they make it back to the playoffs?
8 Texas A&M Aggies Prove it.
9 Cincinnati Bearcats Have you tried telling all your opponents to go 11-1?
10 North Carolina Tar Heels There's no reason UNC shouldn't run away with the Coastal. Watch out, though: @Pitt in November should be circled on Mack's calendar.
11 Utah Utes Why is everyone ignoring Utah? Transfer QB Charlie Brewer and transfer RB TJ Pledger will light up the Pac-12 South. Stanford is struggling. USC still has not proven anything. Colorado is still a 50/50 pick no matter who they play. And what's more, with Oregon fielding questions on both sides of the ball, and Washington grasping at an identity after Petersen's departure, the Pac-12 is practically Utah's for the taking. A resounding win in Provo would set the tone for a 12-0 run and a clear playoff favorite.
12 Florida Gators I'll admit, the Gators are kinda shoehorned in here on the coattails of last year's team. I considered flip-flopping them with the teams above them *and* below them. It's hard to figure how this season will go for them - can they fix that defense? improve that offense? - but make it past Georgia and they're a shoe-in for the SEC title game. They just have to not throw it away.
13 Wisconsin Badgers Wisconsin is starting their highest-rated OL ever, according to their ratings as recruits. Not only that, but the B1G West is lacking in any kind of sincere challenge. Including Wisconsin: they'll snowblow their opponents into tidy banks along the sidewalk, until they run into a bunch of buried nuts someone squirreled away right at the end of their season. Gosh-darn nuts tore up the darn rotors again, don'tcha know how hard it is to find good parts for a decent snowblower these days?
14 Indiana Hoosiers #Indiana was #robbed last year #FireKevinWarren
15 Oregon Ducks After last year, something needs to change. And with a full season ahead of them, the Ducks will change that something. They'll emerge mid-season as the clear favorites in a foundering Pac-12 North, but will fall to Utah. Twice.
16 Arkansas Razorbacks Arkansas, surprisingly, has advantages most of the West does not. They have stability at head coach. They have few outgoing transfers. They have lots of returning starters. And crucially, third place in the West is wide open. If they can catch A&M napping, they could make a serious run at the top 10.
17 Missouri Tigers I like Mizzou in the East this season. Florida's second string is reportedly playing in place of their first string. Georgia always overlooks someone. And Drinkwitz seems to have the team focused. But, it's the off-season. So I'm hedging this bet.
18 Penn State Nittany Lions After all, why shouldn't I do it? Why shouldn't I put Penn State in the top 20?
19 Oklahoma State Cowboys Statistically, Oklahoma State outperforms the Vegas prediction by 2.4 wins following off-seasons when Gundy gets rid of the mullet. (Source: my ass.) But seriously, the Cowboys are no joke this year. Lincoln should not look past them... and neither should Campbell. If Iowa State is upset, it will be the Cowboys to do it.
20 Iowa Hawkeyes The West this year is a whole bunch of ???
21 Auburn Tigers New coach? Check. curYear % 2 == 1? Check. Fans completely devoid of any expectations whatsoever? Check. Well, that's the entire list. Look out Saban, you're gonna lose to a 7-4 unranked mess of a team that spent all season game planning for you and only you.
22 SMU Mustangs Maybe not this year, but let the record reflect that the CFB world is officially on notice: buying recruits is ok* again, and the Ponies are coming back in style. *The designation "ok" does not represent a value judgment or condone behavior which may be unaligned with the spirit or letter of NCAA rules or relevant federal, state, or local laws. Sorry, my lawyer is making me say that.
23 Northwestern Wildcats Will they go 8-4 on the back of a world-class defense and a putrid offense? Will they go 7-5 on the back of a world-class defense and a putrid offense? Only the football gods know, but we're about to find out.
24 Texas Longhorns Yeah, yeah. Insert meme here.
25 Boise State Broncos This is purely a crutch based on historical performance. Look, you try finding a 25th team deserving of being pre-season-ranked. LSU? Scandals. USC? Scandals and also Clay Helton. Washington? Find me their identity and then we'll talk. ULL? Coastal? When are y'all going to learn to stop betting on last year's G5 flavor of the year? Even UCF only managed two seasons of relevance before tumbling back to AAC mediocrity. The G5 game is about guessing which teams will be on the up-and-up, not trying to pick a "safe" choice that, statistically, is not going to pan out. Miami? ...it's been 20 years since the '01 'Canes. Players on this year's team weren't alive in Miami's glory days.

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