Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 29, 2020, 4:08 a.m.

Overall Rationale: I've refactored my approach to the poll for this year, and I don't expect it to look similar to the poll as a whole for a few weeks. The core problem this year is that with an absolute dearth of non-conference games, the already hard problem of comparing teams with very disparate schedules is near impossible.The approach I've used is based on the Elo rating, but is nested in a few steps:* Taking the most recent games between different subdivisions ['P5', 'Non-P5 FBS', 'FCS'] (or 'D2', 'D3', 'NAIA' if i had the data), and using the results to update a starting rating for each group of conferences.* Taking the most recent games between different conferences, and using the results to update a starting rating for each team.* Taking the most recent games for each team, and using the results to get a final rating.The non-conference and non-divisional games go back considerably further in time, and all three are weighted such that more recent games have a bigger impact (using a Kalman filter). What this does is set a baseline for each conference using a larger sample size of data that's less current, since otherwise we really have no way to compare many of the conferences this year until bowl season.This process is done twice:* Once using historical data (which currently includes all FBS games since 2014, and all FCS games since 2018).* Once using purely 2020 data.The first gives a rating that seems like a reasonably fair predictive rating. The second gives a rating based on what is earned this year. A weighted average of the 2 yields a final rating.The one hybrid aspect of this at the moment is that I reserved spots at the tail end for teams outside the top 25 from this rating system that:* Currently have the best record this season (3-0)* Have not lost a game in over a seasonThis took up spots 22-25 this week, which would have otherwise gone to: UNC, VT, Texas, and Baylor. 2 Pac-12 teams would have qualified if eligible: Oregon at #16 and Washington at #22. Other teams that may end up ranked in the poll that didn't make my top 25 were: #29 Texas A&M, #31 Tennessee, #34 Marshall, and #42 Oklahoma.Had I used this rating system last year, the final ranking would have been:LSU OSU CLEM ORE PSUUGA BAMA UF ND IOWAWISC WASH NDSU FAU OUMINN AFA UCF MEM APPAUB MICH TEX UK CINThere's more that can be tuned here, but this is a start.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	61.3
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	61.2
3	UCF Knights	61.1
4	Florida Gators	60.7
5	Georgia Bulldogs	60.6
6	Clemson Tigers	60.6
7	Memphis Tigers	60.6
8	Cincinnati Bearcats	60.5
9	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	60.2
10	BYU Cougars	60.0
11	Auburn Tigers	60.0
12	Miami Hurricanes	59.8
13	Penn State Nittany Lions	59.1
14	Oklahoma State Cowboys	59.0
15	LSU Tigers	58.8
16	Iowa Hawkeyes	58.4
17	Wisconsin Badgers	58.3
18	SMU Mustangs	58.2
19	Minnesota Golden Gophers	58.1
20	Mississippi State Bulldogs	58.1
21	Michigan Wolverines	57.8
22	Pittsburgh Panthers	56.5 (#36)
23	Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns	56.4 (#37)
24	North Dakota State Bison	50.7 (#115)
25	UTSA Roadrunners	50.6 (#116)

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.56
3	UCF Knights	1.38
4	Florida Gators	0.00
5	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
6	Clemson Tigers	-0.73
7	Memphis Tigers	2.47
8	Cincinnati Bearcats	0.98
9	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-0.30
10	BYU Cougars	0.93
11	Auburn Tigers	-0.21
12	Miami Hurricanes	-0.55
13	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
14	Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.00
15	LSU Tigers	0.92
16	Iowa Hawkeyes	4.91
17	Wisconsin Badgers	0.00
18	SMU Mustangs	1.18
19	Minnesota Golden Gophers	0.25
20	Mississippi State Bulldogs	-0.46
21	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
22	Pittsburgh Panthers	0.00
23	Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns	0.00
24	North Dakota State Bison	1.21
25	UTSA Roadrunners	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Texas Longhorns	2.20
North Carolina Tar Heels	1.85
Texas A&M Aggies	0.82
Oklahoma Sooners	0.70
Tennessee Volunteers	0.44
Virginia Tech Hokies	0.41

Total Score: 23.46