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stripes361 Ballot for 2019 Week 14

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 26, 2019, 12:53 a.m.

Overall Rationale: This is a forward-looking, predictive ballot. It is not a resume ranking. I start with an aggregate of the FPI and SP+ computer rankings and then adjust the teams based off of several "human" factors, including coaching, QB play, roster balance, eye test, and injuries. Because it is forward-looking, long-term injuries can significantly alter a team's ranking even before on-field performance has been affected.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes The Buckeyes' convincing win over a Top 10 Penn State this past week was yet more validation that they are the best team in the country. They have dominated both sides of the ball this year in a way no other team has and they've done it against good competition as well.
2 Clemson Tigers Clemson's 2nd best win according to FPI was a 1 point win at #44 UNC, so admittedly it is hard to measure how well their statistical dominance will translate to top-level games. That being said, their computer numbers and efficiency ratings are off the charts and a big component in my rankings is coaching; Clemson, needless to say, has as good of a coaching staff as any team in the country.
3 LSU Tigers I've said this before and it bears repeating: If this were a resume-based ranking, LSU would be #1. They easily have the best Strength of Record in the country. They have had a remarkable season and are legitimate national title contenders. This season's list of teams is top-loaded with three squads that could be #1 teams in a lot of other years. The only reason they trail the other two right now is their defense: 19th in FPI and 29th in SP+. Still good enough for the offense to carry them in the Playoff, but it just makes the margin for error that much thinner.
4 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia has the reverse setup that LSU does: an offense ranked 21st in FPI and 34th in SP+ paired with an elite defense. They've proven they can beat top competition with it several times this year. But once again, it just makes the margin for error a little thinner, as evidenced by their upset loss to South Carolina.
5 Florida Gators
6 Utah Utes According to SP+, four teams in the country are Top 10 in both offense and defense: Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, and Utah. FPI adds Wisconsin to the same mix of teams. This is no cute, fun underdog. Kyle Wittingham has built an elite team which has tremendous balance on either side of the ball. "First-year" offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig, who has used Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss to construct a dynamic offensive squad to complement Wittingham's typically fierce defense, has a "Who's Who" style resume of fantastic coaching mentors. He has served as an OC for Pat Hill at Fresno State, Mike Bellotti at Oregon, Jeff Tedford at Cal, Rocky Long at San Diego State, Gary Andersen at Wisconsin...and, oh yeah, let's not forget his first stint at Utah under Wittingham. They beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. I would not be surprised to see a repeat performance.
7 Oklahoma Sooners Both FPI and SP+ have OU's offense in the Top 5 and OU's defense outside the Top 40. This one-sided approach has led to a lot of close calls this season and last weekend's game against TCU was no exception. This team can only go so far before this weakness hurts them again.
8 Alabama Crimson Tide I am still holding Alabama back due to Tua's injury but Mac Jones has his first real opportunity to prove himself this week against Auburn.
9 Wisconsin Badgers
10 Penn State Nittany Lions
11 Michigan Wolverines
12 Oregon Ducks
13 Minnesota Golden Gophers Minnesota rises one spot this week but had a shaky performance against Northwestern. Are they returning to their early season bad habits or was this just an off day following emotional games against Penn State and Hawaii? The Gophers have a chance to make another statement performance against Wisconsin this week.
14 Baylor Bears Baylor jumps Notre Dame after a great performance against Texas.
15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
16 Texas A&M Aggies
17 Iowa Hawkeyes
18 Auburn Tigers
19 Memphis Tigers
20 Iowa State Cyclones
21 USC Trojans
22 Virginia Tech Hokies Virginia Tech's computer rankings would normally disqualify them from Top 25 consideration but they have been a completely different team with Hendon Hooker. I expect them to beat Virginia decisively this Friday.
23 Oklahoma State Cowboys
24 UCF Knights
25 Cincinnati Bearcats Honorable Mention: Boise State, Louisiana, Washington, Appalachian State

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