Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 26, 2019, 8:13 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Probabilistic model that uses Bayesian inference on a team's results to assign a probability of a team's rating given all their results to date. No information outside of the current season is used. Only scores of games and home/away locations are used. No games against FCS opponents are counted. It is seeded from 0 each week and then iterated until ratings stabilize, so past weeks' results are reevaluated from the perspective of the current week. Numerical scores for each team represent how many points above or below average they are. Subtract scores to get an estimated spread between two teams, with 4 points give to the home team.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	41.9
2	Clemson Tigers	31.3
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	30.1
4	LSU Tigers	29.5
5	Utah Utes	27.3
6	Wisconsin Badgers	26.4
7	Penn State Nittany Lions	25.5
8	Oklahoma Sooners	25.0
9	Oregon Ducks	24.7
10	Auburn Tigers	24.1
11	Georgia Bulldogs	23.9
12	Michigan Wolverines	23.4
13	Florida Gators	22.3
14	Iowa State Cyclones	20.4
15	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	19.9
16	Baylor Bears	18.7
17	Memphis Tigers	17.2
18	Iowa Hawkeyes	17.0
19	Minnesota Golden Gophers	16.4
20	Oklahoma State Cowboys	15.4
21	Texas Longhorns	15.3
22	UCF Knights	15.2
23	TCU Horned Frogs	15.1
24	Washington Huskies	14.9
25	Navy Midshipmen	14.3

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
2	Clemson Tigers	0.18
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.70
4	LSU Tigers	-1.72
5	Utah Utes	0.00
6	Wisconsin Badgers	1.98
7	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.83
8	Oklahoma Sooners	0.00
9	Oregon Ducks	1.28
10	Auburn Tigers	1.49
11	Georgia Bulldogs	-3.75
12	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
13	Florida Gators	-0.04
14	Iowa State Cyclones	8.06
15	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
16	Baylor Bears	-1.13
17	Memphis Tigers	0.00
18	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.00
19	Minnesota Golden Gophers	-2.17
20	Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.27
21	Texas Longhorns	4.21
22	UCF Knights	3.13
23	TCU Horned Frogs	2.22
24	Washington Huskies	1.15
25	Navy Midshipmen	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Cincinnati Bearcats	1.72
Boise State Broncos	1.57
Appalachian State Mountaineers	0.83
Virginia Tech Hokies	0.34
USC Trojans	0.01

Total Score: 38.78