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crownebeach Ballot for 2019 Week 14

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 25, 2019, 2:35 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Think of this as me trying to give the teams a 40-99 rating in NCAA Football 20. I try to adjust for luck and identify your underlying squad quality. Rate stats (per play, per drive) and margin stats (total scoring, per play) are super useful. Team talent and coaching and stuff like that matters, which is why I fill out a human ballot rather than strictly plugging your rate stats into a mathematical model. If you ask questions like "but what's their best win?," this is not the ballot for you.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes The scoreline is misleading. This game was not close.
2 Clemson Tigers /bye/
3 LSU Tigers LSU could conceivably lose to either A&M or Georgia, but they are not going to lose both, so as far as I'm concerned they're a playoff lock at this point.
4 Utah Utes Utah's defensive efficiency is up to No. 4, per ESPN. This group is better on both sides of the ball than the 2008 team that won the Sugar Bowl.
5 Georgia Bulldogs BuT tHeiR OfFenSe iS BoRInG. Georgia's very good and doesn't particularly care that you don't like watching. They *could* get shut out by Utah or Clemson and have to go rethink their entire philosophy. They could also win the SEC, go to the playoff, and win a title. And if they do, I'll enjoy watching them rub everyone else's noses in it.
6 Alabama Crimson Tide I have nothing against the Tide, but my mental health cannot take it if they are in the playoff conversation *again*. Auburn needs to deliver this ass-kicking for the people.
7 Minnesota Golden Gophers This is a huge jump. Am I super confident in it? No. Do Oregon, Florida, Oklahoma, and Penn State fill me with more confidence? Also no.
8 Penn State Nittany Lions This is the best defensive effort anybody has given Ohio State. That is all I have to say about that game.
9 Oregon Ducks Barton Simmons at the Cover 3 pod has the best read on this: Justin Herbert is the Emperor's New Clothes. He's a solid QB with a pro future, but he isn't top-overall-pick stock and he has a few clunkers in him. If you told me preseason that Oregon would go 10-3 and play for the Rose, I'd believe you.
10 Florida Gators Florida is the team I have the weakest read on this season. Maybe because they played two FCS games, so I just don't have enough data. Still pretty good.
11 Auburn Tigers People are being awfully harsh on Auburn -- a team starting a true freshman QB against the sixth-toughest schedule. Their SoR is No. 14 and their FPI rank is No. 9.
12 Oklahoma Sooners On one hand, I see the upside and the talent here for Oklahoma to be way higher. But it's been a month since OU played a game that I said "yeah, you really deserved to win this game." Not sure what's going on here.
13 Wisconsin Badgers No change.
14 Michigan Wolverines Michigan is playing really well and could conceivably beat Ohio State, but the "UM is a top-ten team" movement that's risen over the last three weeks is weird amounts of hype for a team that is basically just winning the games it's supposed to win?
15 Memphis Tigers Memphis has to beat Cincinnati, to win the right to beat Cincinnati a second time, to get the G5 bid. Conference. Title. Games. Suck.
16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish BC :( didn't think the Eagles would win, but I thought they would hold up better than 40-7. Notre Dame kills lesser opposition, which is an underrated trait.
17 Baylor Bears I like Baylor, but I think their profile is more like a typical 8-3 team than a 10-1. It's hard for me personally to see how they would make the playoff if Utah doesn't lose again.
18 Oklahoma State Cowboys Oklahoma State's run defense is surprisingly stout (3.9 yards/rush allowed), and they didn't concede a turnover last week with Dru Brown at the helm. The Pokes might play a little less pace and a little more ball control, and if they do that, they could upset the OU apple cart.
19 USC Trojans I said at the start of the year that Clay keeps his job at 8-4. I'm curious to see where this goes, but against a strong schedule, I think the Trojans had a decent enough year and could totally go win the Alamo Bowl.
20 Boise State Broncos Utah State's offense is struggling, but their defense has been quite good, and Boise took them to school. If Memphis and Cincy split the rest of the way, BSU could take the G5 bowl spot and absolutely run through a Florida-tier team.
21 Iowa State Cyclones Still love everything I see from ISU. They missed being legit title contenders by such fine margins.
22 UCF Knights UCF had this game in hand and almost gave it all back, but they're still unbeaten in games where Dillon Gabriel doesn't throw a pick and winless in games where he turns it over. Story of the season.
23 Indiana Hoosiers Gave Michigan a run at first, but couldn't hang defensively. Still a team I really rate, and I would be really surprised if Purdue can put up any rivalry week resistance at all.
24 Iowa Hawkeyes Iowa is a poor man's Georgia. Tough and steady and reliable and really prone to occasionally slipping in their own mud; respectable win against a very serviceable Illinois.
25 Air Force Falcons I know, I know, Navy beat Air Force. But the Falcons are riding a six-game win streak with high margins of victory and I think they'd win a rematch. First teams out, in no particular order: App State, VA Tech, Navy, UL Lafayette

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