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chrisb19 Ballot for 2019 Week 14

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 24, 2019, 8:19 p.m.

Rank Team Reason
1 LSU Tigers It's really hard to overstate how good LSU's resume is, but it's also gone mostly unnoticed how problematic their defense is. It's a glaring liability heading into the SEC Championship in 2 weeks, even though UGA hasn't looked remotely potent on offense.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes A comfortable win over Penn State confirms the Buckeyes as the team to beat in the B1G and a near-guarantee for the playoff. Fields appeared to take a minor knock but if he's healthy, the only concern will be their turnovers. This is a ridiculously stacked team and just because they don't have the resume LSU does, they should still be considered a favorite for the title.
3 Clemson Tigers Was there a time that Clemson was beatable? Sure, but it appears to have been in September. Now the team is rolling and looking more like the team that beat Alabama than the team that almost lost to UNC. Granted, they have had the easiest schedule of the top teams, but in the playoff era they've proven they can hang with teams with better resumes. What Dabo has built there is really remarkable and only overshadowed by Nick Saban's continued existence.
4 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia has quietly put together one of the best defenses in college football and one of the best units they've had in years. Giving up 75 YPG on the ground is a silly statistic, even as weak as their competition has been. They've knocked off A&M, Auburn, Florida, and Notre Dame, which is not a bad resume. The biggest two problems is that they often build a halftime lead and then allow late-game comebacks where the defense shifts into a MUCH softer scheme and lets teams get back within touching distance of the win. If they can reverse that pattern against LSU, they might be able to ride the defense to victory despite VERY real offensive concerns. It feels like the new OC James Coley wants to run a more modern offense but Jake Fromm is built for a traditional pro-style. They need to figure this out in the next 2 weeks to have any shot.
5 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama without Tua is still Alabama. A weaker-than-usual defense but they've still got studs at every single position on the field. It speaks to Saban's prowess that they'll probably finish the season 12-1 with an NY6 bowl win after losing one of the most electric players in college football.
6 Utah Utes Utah has won and won big in most of their conference games. Admittedly, the Pac12 is in a down year (especially in the South) but it's hard to argue with results. The unfortunate thing for them is that Oregon likely ruined any chance they have of the playoff by devaluing their last signature win.
7 Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma has ridden their luck a couple of times this year and the lunacy of the BigXII title game will probably do them more harm than good. Hard to see them making the playoff, but they're still a very solid team overall.
8 Minnesota Golden Gophers One thing I've learned from a VERY long time watching CFB is that it's really hard to be an undefeated team. Every game it gets harder. Even teams with serious pedigree like Oklahoma, UGA, and Utah, manage to slip up. It was probably expecting too much for the Gophers to go 12-0 without any recent history of this level of success. But PJ Fleck has done an outstanding job of building that program and I really hope they at least give the Buckeyes a game in Indy.
9 Florida Gators Is it written into Florida's contract that their coach is required to go 10-2, finish 2nd in the East, and either win or lose an NY6/New Year's Day bowl? I feel like I'm having deja vu to when Muschamp did almost this exact thing. Did McElwain? Feels like he may have. The good news for Florida is that they play 3 elite teams. The bad news is they're 1-2 against them. Despite Trask being an admirable fill-in, Mullen still hasn't seen the type of QB talent he had at Moo St with Dak or as Florida's OC with Tebow. Once he gets a guy he REALLY believes in, I think this team will be filthy. The problem, per above, is that their floor is really high and their ceiling is comparatively low. When you only have 2 losses on the year, it's hard to improve too much.
10 Michigan Wolverines It feels like with Harbaugh the more things change the more they stay the same. The team opened the year with ugly, grind-it-now wins and no signs of the offensive revolution we'd been promised. Since a close loss to Penn State, they've scored 45, 38, 44, and 39, all while having a top-10 defense. Much like Florida, they'll wind up defined more by their losses than by their wins, and will continue to be a comfortable 15ish ranked team on the outside looking in at Penn State, Ohio St, Wisconsin, and - for now - Minnesota. Harbaugh is a huge step up from what Michigan football was a few years ago but he's not at the heights of what Michigan football used to be. Gotta wonder how long that keeps up.
11 Baylor Bears Baylor's like Minnesota - a team none of us really believed in who just kept racking up win after win after win after win. Like Minnesota, it seems logical that they would have one slip-up but for them it was losing to an elite playoff-level team. The good news is the dumb BigXII rematch will likely favor them, since it's generally hard to beat the same team twice. The Texas win doesn't look nearly as good as it would have back in September, but they've put together an impressive record fairly early into the Rhule rebuild.
12 Penn State Nittany Lions I've watched James Franklin coach for a very long time (since his Vanderbilt days) and still can't tell if he's good or bad. Some years he puts together incredible teams. Some years he's frustratingly bad at game management. This year feels like a lot of both. A couple of good but close wins, an expected loss to Ohio St (where they admittedly fought through a ton of adversity), and the less-expected loss to Minnesota. A good-not-great team, sort of in line with Michigan at this point for me.
13 Oregon Ducks Pac12 desert voodoo. I don't know how else to explain it. Herbert hasn't progressed as much as they'd like and ASU's defense shut down the Ducks until they woke back up in the 4th quarter. Tons of talent, they just have to figure out how to utilize it better. And next year, they'll have to do it while breaking in a new QB.
14 Wisconsin Badgers Wisconsin's another weird one - despite Taylor being the most dominant RB in football, they had a big win over a Michigan team that's gotten much better, an inexplicable loss to Illinois, a narrow escape against Iowa, and a pretty sound defeat by the Buckeyes. The team is consistent only in their inconsistencies. 
15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame got spanked by Michigan, but Michigan was firmly in their resurgent phase by then. Only other loss was a CLOSE loss to UGA, who's now heading for a play-in game in the SECCG. A couple narrow escapes but a lot of very comfortable wins.
16 Auburn Tigers It's a testament to Malzahn that Auburn is ranked this high despite Nix being a very mediocre QB. Their early win against Oregon - improbable though it was - has been their signature win in a year where they've lost to the 3 toughest teams they've played (and will likely lose to Bama also). Malzahn is a maddening coach as well - genius at times, lackluster at others. I still don't know what to make of him. But as long as Kevin Steele is around, Auburn is a force to be reckoned with. 
17 Memphis Tigers I don't pretend to have watched a lot of the American Athletic Conference but Memphis has 1 loss and are heading to a great showdown against the Bearcats next week. Norvell is already getting some looks by P5 programs. I definitely think they - and Cincy - were dark horses out of a conference that has Navy, SMU, and UCF.
18 Cincinnati Bearcats Only loss was to Ohio St, which almost shouldn't count given the obvious talent gap there. Otherwise the Bearcats have taken care of business under Luke Fickell. Should be a good one next week.
19 Iowa Hawkeyes After YEARS of mediocre punctuated by the occasional contract year where he'd run off a 10-win season, Kirk Ferentz has settled Iowa down into a pretty consistent second-tier team in the B1G. Only three losses, but to the 3 best teams on their schedule. They get credit for a bounceback win against the Gophers though. Good enough to hang around but not good enough to really shake up the conference.
20 Boise State Broncos Another team that's hard to judge owing to the lower quality of competition, but they're 10-1 and one of the stronger teams in the Group of 5.
21 Appalachian State Mountaineers App St has put together a solid Sunbelt resume and added 2 Power 5 scalps (UNC and SCar) this season. They continue to be the scrappy underdog who can hang with the big boys when they want to.
22 Oklahoma State Cowboys It's really hard for me to justify ranking the Cowboys at all - three losses including Texas Tech and a Texas team that no longer appears to be as formidable as it did back when they played. But the entire BigXII is down right now, so I guess it's somewhat justified.
23 Virginia Tech Hokies like Oklahoma State, VaTech hangs their hat on a couple dubious wins (Wake looked better then than they do now) and close losses (Notre Dame). A couple of big wins (GaTech, Pitt) balanced by at least one bad loss (Duke). In a generally down ACC they have a resume that's respectable at best but not world-beating.
24 USC Trojans USC has dealt with a LOT of injuries and backups and backup backups, but it's still embarrassing for a team with this much talent to have one signature win. That said, beating Utah is more than a lot of teams ranked around here. That just doesn't compensate for the 4 losses.
25 Navy Midshipmen Navy only has one real signature win (SMU) but only 2 losses, to ND and Memphis, both of whom are really good teams this year. Again it's a question of not playing a ton of elite competition, but 8-2 is enough to earn them a spot here.

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