BosskOnASegway Ballot for 2019 Week 14
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 24, 2019, 12:27 p.m.
Overall Rationale: To prevent the bottom of the rankings from being dominated by teams from chaotic conferences, adding a requirement for at least a 0.666 record or better. Will be removed after thing are more leveled out. A team has previously exceed 30% chance to win the national title (though no longer true as the team over dropped below). National title probability will be used before playoff percentage. Teams will be ranked by national championship probability for all teams with above a 5% probability. Next, ranked by probability of making the playoffs based on 538's predictive model until teams are below 5% then switches to ranking by Conference champ probability among teams tracked on 538's playoff predictor otherwise no G5 teams will show up. If there still aren't enough teams before conference champ probability falls below 10%, strength of record of the remaining teams is used to rank them.This helps better capture NY6 probability after playoffs become unrealistic/longshot goals for some teams. Additionally, as strength of record is one of the best predictors of CFP ranking, it helps reflect what the CFP values toward the bottom of the list.New rule going forward:
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
National Champions: 31% |
| 2 |
Clemson Tigers
|
National Champions: 28% |
| 3 |
LSU Tigers
|
National Champions: 16% |
| 4 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
National Champions: 10% |
| 5 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
National Champions: 5% |
| 6 |
Utah Utes
|
Playoff: 27% |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
Playoff: 13% |
| 8 |
Baylor Bears
|
Playoff: 12% |
| 9 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
Playoff: 7% |
| 10 |
Minnesota Golden Gophers
|
Playoff: 7% |
| 11 |
Boise State Broncos
|
Conference: 90% |
| 12 |
Oregon Ducks
|
Conference: 49% |
| 13 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
Conference: 47% |
| 14 |
Appalachian State Mountaineers
|
Conference: 45% |
| 15 |
Memphis Tigers
|
Conference: 43% |
| 16 |
Florida Gators
|
SoR: #6 |
| 17 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
SoR: #7 |
| 18 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
SoR: #9 |
| 19 |
Auburn Tigers
|
SoR: #14 |
| 20 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
SoR: #16 |
| 21 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
SoR: #18 |
| 22 |
Navy Midshipmen
|
SoR: #23 |
| 23 |
USC Trojans
|
SoR: #24 |
| 24 |
SMU Mustangs
|
SoR: #25 |
| 25 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
SoR: #26 |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.18 |
| 3 |
LSU Tigers
|
-0.72 |
| 4 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.16 |
| 6 |
Utah Utes
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Baylor Bears
|
0.14 |
| 9 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
0.80 |
| 10 |
Minnesota Golden Gophers
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Boise State Broncos
|
1.75 |
| 12 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.07 |
| 13 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
0.51 |
| 14 |
Appalachian State Mountaineers
|
1.69 |
| 15 |
Memphis Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Florida Gators
|
-1.05 |
| 17 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
-1.65 |
| 18 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
-1.73 |
| 19 |
Auburn Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-1.18 |
| 21 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Navy Midshipmen
|
0.12 |
| 23 |
USC Trojans
|
0.51 |
| 24 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.24 |
| 25 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
-0.52 |
Virginia Tech Hokies