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crownebeach Ballot for 2019 Week 9

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Oct. 20, 2019, 9:08 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Think of this as an "if team X played all the teams below them, they'd have a winning record" ranking. I don't necessarily care if you lost last week, as long as I can construct a theory of why you lost that's consistent with your other results to date. If you lose because you lose five fumbles, I'll be nicer to you than if you lose because you gave up a million yards. I really like yards per play stats. Not really based on head-to-head results; where I can use literally any other means to tiebreak teams, I will.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes Against three top-30 defenses, Ohio State is averaging >7 yards/play and 42 points/game. Just unreal.
2 Clemson Tigers Trevor Lawrence can throw as many interceptions as he wants, and it won't matter as long as Clemson keeps rushing for 300 yards a game.
3 Alabama Crimson Tide Strictly a referendum on Tua's injury. I've had Alabama at No. 1 all year and would usually have them no lower than No. 2, but the Tide are having some major depth issues this year, and they're not a playoff team if he's hurt.
4 Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma has a top-40 defense for the first time in four years. Even more interesting is how they've done it: per Fremeau, they are in the top 25 in explosive drives allowed, and the top *10* in opponent drives for negative yards. It's not super common to be good at both; defenses frequently have a pronounced tendency one way or the other.
5 LSU Tigers Defense is a work in progress; against the pass there are holes to exploit, but in typical LSU fashion, they're really strong on the goal line and in short-yardage more generally. If you look at the FPI stat profile and the box scores, the difference between LSU & Oklahoma is hair-splitting thin.
6 Auburn Tigers Picking 6-10 this week is brutal. Florida had a good matchup and won head-to-head, but the computers mostly like Auburn better. Deciding how harshly to penalize Georgia for the last two weeks is confusing, too. In any case, I think AU opening as a double-digit road dog @ LSU is a little insulting.
7 Penn State Nittany Lions There have been a few games this year where my opinion of both teams went up, and UM-PSU was one of them. I knew both defenses could play, so to see both QBs look poised and work their way downfield was progress. Penn State's roster isn't where Ohio State's is yet, but they're getting close.
8 Oregon Ducks The defense got dented a little bit -- Washington's offensive line is the best they'll face all year, and it showed -- but the Ducks closed strong and ultimately held Washington to <4 yards/carry for the game. Marcus Arroyo did a much better job of scheming receivers open, and Oregon should be heavily favored the rest of the way.
9 Florida Gators I love Florida's game, but there are a ton of injuries on this defensive front. South Carolina ran the ball on them, which I wasn't expecting. No team needs its bye week more. Still my East division favorite, though -- it really would not be outrageous to think the Gators can make the playoff.
10 Georgia Bulldogs This OL is amazing (Georgia leads the country in line yards per carry), and yet the Dawgs struggle to move the ball in short-yardage situations or through the air. Granted, it's year one for a new OC, but they're running largely the same offense as last year, just a worse version.
11 Utah Utes Beating Utah is all about matchups. They don't let you run the ball, so you have to have elite talent on the outside to make them pay for sticking with man coverage. That eliminates all but a handful of teams (Clemson, USC, LSU, etc.). They don't control their own South destiny, but they have an easier remaining schedule than USC.
12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
13 Baylor Bears I was on the Baylor train early, and their odds of making the Big XII title game continue to be very strong -- they are favored by FPI in all but one remaining game. There's definitely a scenario where the Bears go 12-1 and steal the fourth CFP bid.
14 Wisconsin Badgers Rushed for 3.8 yards/carry against Illinois. For comparison, Eastern Michigan ran for 4.1 on their visit to Champaign. I don't see how they can beat a very good defense in the Horseshoe after this. Wisconsin is still probably the West favorite, but this is one of the most baffling losses in years.
15 Iowa State Cyclones I wasn't on the Iowa State bandwagon over the summer, but I picked them up after their blowout win against TCU and haven't looked back since. As with Baylor, the 'Clones are FPI underdogs in only one remaining game, and they are still very much alive in the Big XII title race.
16 Minnesota Golden Gophers I don't understand the reluctance to take Minnesota seriously. They probably won't win the Big Ten or anything, but they continue to blast bad teams and keep decent ones at arm's length. Somewhere in the 16-25 range feels more than fair.
17 Michigan Wolverines Signs of life offensively! I was pleasantly surprised at how well they played against Penn State. No other comments at this time.
18 Texas Longhorns I didn't understand the broad preseason consensus that Texas was a serious playoff contender this year, mostly because of the amount of talent lost from last year's team on defense. 8-4 in a transition year would be a perfectly successful season, and they seem right on track for that.
19 Memphis Tigers With apologies to SMU, I've been higher on Memphis since well into the preseason, and I'm going to stick with that line at least until the first Saturday in November. Under the radar: the Tigers are the FPI No. 2 in special teams margin right now. They do the little things well.
20 Cincinnati Bearcats The American has a very deep upper tier. There's not much to split Memphis, Cincy, and UCF -- I still think SMU is a few fractions behind the other three, but the gap is rapidly closing. Cincinnati gets the nod here because they minimize their mistakes and pull away consistently.
21 Arizona State Sun Devils Arizona State is really good at lots of things, but their offensive line is really bad. I picked them to win the South because I expected them to improve at the LOS in the offseason, but whether because of position shuffling or coaching or lack of talent, that hasn't materialized. Probably going 8-4 this year.
22 Michigan State Spartans Sparty has burned me a few times already this year, but I still believe in their defensive method. Coming off a bye against a PSU team that just barely fended off Michigan, I think they have a shot here. Please validate me.
23 Pittsburgh Panthers Pitt over UVA will raise some eyebrows, but I think they've done some real growing up. They play a bruising style of defense (FPI No. 26) that's given some explosive offenses fits -- Ohio, UCF, Penn State -- and Mark Whipple is a highly regarded OC who's done good work with Kenny Pickett so far.
24 Washington Huskies SP+ projected Oregon to win by 2, and they won by 4, so Washington stays ranked on my ballot. If you have a credible reason to move Washington down that isn't "But they have three losses!," I would be happy to hear it.
25 UCF Knights Don't let the scoreline fool you: UCF had a 35-6 halftime lead on ECU, and the Pirates fought back just to make it respectable. The Knights are still pretty good and heavily favored in every remaining game, although they're not likely to get enough help to climb back into the American title race.

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