Back to poll results >>

Charlemagne42 Ballot for 2019 Week 9

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 20, 2019, 2:12 p.m.

Overall Rationale: 100% computer ballot. FORMAT: [computer score] commentary (change from last week) SELF-ASSESSMENT: 5 iterations (-1 from last week) GENERAL COMMENTS: I made some changes from last week, mostly affecting the absolute score values. There are also minor changes to how the algorithm assesses the quality of a particular opponent, which has resulted in some unusual individual movements compared to last week. These changes were made in response to my poll achieving Unusual status for the first time last week, owing to the unfair credit given for playing teams with good records against poor schedules themselves, or vice versa. In addition, I discovered and patched a bug wherein teams who played Penn were given credit for playing Penn *State*. As Penn State is currently #3, and Penn is currently #194, this understandably created some team quality assessment errors. This year is my first year including FCS teams, and as an Ivy League member, Penn's season didn't start until week 4, which is why the bug wasn't traced down until this week.

Rank Team Reason
1 LSU Tigers [2932] They looked just a bit shaky early, but pulled away just fine by the end. Not quite a blowout by the computer's standards, but close enough. (+1 from last week)
2 Ohio State Buckeyes [2601] Another slow start, another second-quarter steamroll. Wisconsin looks vulnerable, but at the same time, nobody wants to be near an angry nest of Badgers. Fault all of Ohio State's defeated opponents for losing this week to drop the Buckeyes. (-1)
3 Penn State Nittany Lions [2187] This game wasn't nearly as close as the score looked, but still, it's the Nittany Lions' first blue-chip win of the season. Ohio State looms. (+3)
4 Baylor Bears [1989] I will eventually take great pleasure in describing how low the Bears drop, after exploiting every computer ranking system in existence every single year, by scheduling FCS teams (plural) at the tops of bad conferences, as well as a bad G5 team that somehow ends up not looking horrible, *and then* also going on a sweetheart conference schedule loaded up early with Kansas State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, and oh yeah everyone *except* the actual conference contenders. This inevitably leaves them undefeated for way longer than their actual quality implies, and shoots them way up every computer's boards, including mine. Grumble grumble. (+6)
5 Oklahoma Sooners [1880] Nothing interesting happened this week, and probably won't until Baylor. Or after until the ISU rematch. That's right, I'm calling it now - ISU gains the tiebreakers to set up their first CCG appearance, over Texas *and* Baylor. Oh yeah, also the Sooners moved way up due to others moving down. Mostly Wisconsin and Minnesota, because the B1G West looks baaaaad now. (+4)
6 Minnesota Golden Gophers [1877] Minnesota is the Baylor of the B1G West. They got slotted into a pillowy conference schedule (they miss everyone but Penn State worth sneezing at in the East, and they don't play Iowa, Northwestern, or Wisconsin until the end of the year), and they scheduled a P5-free OOC lineup, with a bonus FCS buy game too. LRO. (+6)
7 SMU Mustangs [1875] The computer's favorite G5, because the computer doesn't see a G5. Actually it doesn't see a P5 either. It's more of a P4. That's right, it sees the SEC, B1G, and XII as nearly identical, with the AAC close behind. From there is a gradient downward from the ACC through the SBC, MWC, PAC, and CUSA, with mostly even steps. Lagging far, far, behind is the hapless MAC, whose top-ranked team is 3-4 Buffalo. Anyway, SMU is 7-0 for the first time in most CFB fans' lifetimes. (+4)
8 Alabama Crimson Tide [1809] Tua's hurt. Tennessee sucks. Bama also didn't pull away from Tennessee until late. I can't save the Tide with hybrid mode anymore. Big wins desperately needed. (-4)
9 Florida Gators [1801] Florida escapes the upset factory. Unfortunately for them, so do Bama, Georgia, LSU, and Vanderbilt. (+4)
10 Clemson Tigers [1789] Clemson's score isn't that far behind Bama's. They could climb. Unless they play a significantly weaker conference schedule by virtue of being in a significantly weaker conference. Oh wait. (-2)
11 Auburn Tigers [1695] Auburn fell victim to the opponent quality adjustments. Reason? Oregon. (-6)
12 Appalachian State Mountaineers [1579] They're coming. Hide your field goal units. (+2)
13 Memphis Tigers [1398] (+6)
14 Utah State Aggies [1356] I'm still convinced Utah State is a bug. Where did they come from? How did they get here? It seems like they benefited more positively than any other team from every single balance change made. Their two losses are to undefeated #1 LSU and 6-1 #27 Wake Forest. And their wins include 6-1 #22 SDSU and P5 Colorado. Okay, maybe Colorado isn't actually that great a win. (NEW)
15 Cincinnati Bearcats [1257] Finally, the unusual exclusion that precipitated the balancing changes. Cincy was left off due to an early walloping by Ohio State, off-and-on #1 in this computer's estimation. I softened the judgment evoked upon a team that suffers a loss to a good team, and redirected that evocation at teams that suffer losses to bad teams. (NEW)
16 Texas Longhorns [1240] TEXAS (almost) LOST TO KANSAS AT FOOTBALL, AGAIN! AT HOME THIS TIME! *LES*T WE ALL FORGET, TEXAS LOST TO KANSAS AT FOOTBALL IN 2016! Leave it to the Kansas defense to let Dicker the Kicker into chip-shot range after the Mad Hatter's giant golden 2-point balls dragged a rut through DKR Field deeper and longer than the one Boomer and Sooner dragged through Owen Field when the Schooner capsized this weekend. (+5)
17 Wisconsin Badgers [1156] BRING OUT YOUR DEAAAAAD! *dong* BRING OUT YOUR DEAAAAAAAAD! *dong* BRING OUT YOUR -- are you sure this one's dead, and not just a bad case of alcohol poisoning? (-14)
18 Georgia Bulldogs [1154] Also in "how did we lose to *them*?", Georgia is still recovering. (-2)
19 Oregon Ducks [1128] The update made the Pac-12 look even weaker than the ACC somehow. Or maybe that was Oregon State beating Cal, and Wazzu beating Colorado, and UCLA beating Stanford, and Washington losing, and the fact that most of the ACC favorites actually won this week. (-4)
20 Notre Dame Fighting Irish [1116] This is the closest the ACC is going to get to having two ranked teams. (-2)
21 Boise State Broncos [1075] Friendship ended with Boise State. SMU is my favorite horse-based G5 team now. (-14)
22 San Diego State Aztecs [1071] If only they hadn't lost early to Utah State, the Aztecs could be where Boise was last week. If only. (+1)
23 Utah Utes [1068] 4th-worst 6-win team in FBS, behind UAB, Louisiana Tech, and Wake Forest. (+1)
24 Temple Owls [1056] The American West is *stacked*. Too bad Temple plays in the East. There's no room for error in that division. (-7)
25 Navy Midshipmen [1028] Still lurking, barely cresting the surface. By just 4 points, in fact. (+0) NEXT SEVERAL OUT: 26. Louisville [1024], 27. Wake Forest [1002], 28. Louisiana Tech [942], 29. South Carolina [932], 30. UAB [891]. DROPPED: Arizona State (from 20), Missouri (22).

Back to poll results >>