Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 21, 2019, 9:40 a.m.

Overall Rationale: To prevent the bottom of the rankings from being dominated by teams from chaotic conferences (specifically the AAC), adding a requirement for at least a 0.666 record or better. Will be removed after thing are more leveled out.Ranked by probability of making the playoffs based on 538's predictive model until teams are below 5% then switches to ranking by Conference champ probability among teams tracked on 538's playoff predictor otherwise no G5 teams will show up. If there still aren't enough teams before conference champ probability falls below 10%, strength of record of the remaining teams is used to rank them.  This helps better capture NY6 probability after playoffs become unrealistic/longshot goals for some teams. Additionally, as strength of record is one of the best predictors of CFP ranking, it helps reflect what the CFP values toward the bottom of the list.New rule going forward:  Once a team exceed 30% chance to win the national title.  National title probability will be used before playoff percentage.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Clemson Tigers	Playoff: 80%
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	Playoff: 57%
3	Oklahoma Sooners	Playoff: 51%
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	Playoff: 50%
5	LSU Tigers	Playoff: 32%
6	Penn State Nittany Lions	Playoff: 20%
7	Oregon Ducks	Playoff: 17%
8	Georgia Bulldogs	Playoff: 16%
9	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	Playoff: 13%
10	Baylor Bears	Playoff: 13%
11	Florida Gators	Playoff: 11%
12	Wisconsin Badgers	Playoff: 9%
13	Utah Utes	Playoff: 8%
14	Auburn Tigers	Playoff: 8%
15	Boise State Broncos	Conference: 45%
16	Cincinnati Bearcats	Conference: 45%
17	SMU Mustangs	Conference: 22%
18	Minnesota Golden Gophers	SoR: #11
19	Appalachian State Mountaineers	SoR: #15
20	Michigan Wolverines	SoR: #18
21	Iowa Hawkeyes	SoR: #19
22	Texas Longhorns	SoR: 21
23	Arizona State Sun Devils	SoR: #22
24	Pittsburgh Panthers	SoR: #23
25	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	SoR: #25

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Clemson Tigers	1.29
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
3	Oklahoma Sooners	0.21
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
5	LSU Tigers	-1.60
6	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
7	Oregon Ducks	0.50
8	Georgia Bulldogs	0.25
9	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
10	Baylor Bears	0.15
11	Florida Gators	-0.04
12	Wisconsin Badgers	0.00
13	Utah Utes	0.00
14	Auburn Tigers	-1.26
15	Boise State Broncos	1.48
16	Cincinnati Bearcats	0.35
17	SMU Mustangs	0.00
18	Minnesota Golden Gophers	0.00
19	Appalachian State Mountaineers	0.00
20	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
21	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.00
22	Texas Longhorns	-0.41
23	Arizona State Sun Devils	0.00
24	Pittsburgh Panthers	0.90
25	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Memphis Tigers	0.20
Iowa State Cyclones	0.21

Total Score: 8.85