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stripes361 Ballot for 2019 Week 7

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Oct. 7, 2019, 5:32 p.m.

Overall Rationale: This is a forward-looking, predictive ballot. It is not a resume ranking. I start with an aggregate of the FPI and SP+ computer rankings and then adjust the teams based off of several "human" factors, including coaching, QB play, roster balance, eye test, and injuries. Because it is forward-looking, long-term injuries can significantly alter a team's ranking even before on-field performance has been affected.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Clemson Tigers
4 Georgia Bulldogs
5 LSU Tigers
6 Oklahoma Sooners
7 Wisconsin Badgers
8 Penn State Nittany Lions
9 Oregon Ducks
10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
11 Florida Gators Florida gets a nice jump from 14 up to 11 in my poll after beating Auburn. Kyle Trask proved his ability against a great defense so the Gators rightfully enter my Tier 2. There isn't a whole lot of separation right now between them and #7 Wisconsin.
12 Texas Longhorns Texas continues their slow, steady creep up my ballot closer to the broader consensus point but their defense continues to cause concern. OU could score bunches of points against them in the RRS if they don't up their game. FWIW, the Longhorns have dropped to 20th(!) in both FPI and SP+.
13 Auburn Tigers Auburn's offense looked horrible and I wanted to drop them further this week but the field of contenders just wasn't that strong. Auburn's defense is still scary but I don't trust a team this one-sided and with such a low-performing QB to challenge any of the top dogs.
14 Michigan Wolverines I've promised you guys that it's possible to overcome inertia on my ballot if you have really earned it and Michigan showed out against Iowa. They jump 8 spots up to #14 this week despite picking up only 13 first downs and not scoring for the final 53:33 of the game. (Wait, really?! That's abysmal! Credit to Iowa's D, though.)
15 Michigan State Spartans You may have noticed that Michigan State "rose" a spot this week after being dominated by Ohio State. Yes, I took that result into account. Since it's almost exactly what I expected, it didn't change my rating of MSU in the slightest. The one-spot rise comes from other teams dropping.
16 Missouri Tigers Mizzou is now up to 10th(!) in SP+. I'm more on board with FPI, which has the Tigers 17th at the moment. This is the biggest sleeper team in college football right now but may struggle if Kelly Bryant's knee sprain affects his play going forward.
17 Iowa Hawkeyes Iowa barely drops as I felt the game spoke less poorly about the Hawkeyes than it spoke well about Michigan's defense. Still, the stunning lack of offense is concerning to say the least.
18 Utah Utes
19 Iowa State Cyclones The Cyclones dominated a TCU team that I had ranked last week. Brock Purdy's stat line of 19-24/247 yds/2 TDs through the air and 12/102 yds/2 TDs on the ground deserves special recognition. Why? I picked him up in fantasy football free agency this week to spot start during Tua's bye. Needless to say, the move worked out pretty brilliantly. I'm now tied for first in my league with a 4-1 record.
20 Baylor Bears Baylor's domination of Kansas State on the road should certainly raise eyebrows around the college football landscape. Matt Rhule seems to be doing a heck of a coaching job down in Waco.
21 Washington Huskies I had Washington on the verge of the Top 10 last week but they removed all doubt about having an elite squad in their loss to Stanford. They're lucky the teams behind them fared so poorly this week or else they may have dropped further.
22 Texas A&M Aggies Yes, Texas A&M "drops" over a bye week. No, I am not punishing them for not playing. Iowa State and Baylor simply earned a jump through impressive outings.
23 USC Trojans
24 UCF Knights I swear I agonized over this selection. I really wanted to rank Cincinnati ahead of UCF this time. They would absolutely deserve it from a resume POV if this were a resume poll. But the computers, and myself, just can't get past Cincinnati's struggles against UCLA, which was as poor a performance as UCF's 1-point loss to Pitt. Cincinnati has nothing on their schedule like UCF's demolition of Stanford (the Marshall win lost some lustre with the Herd's loss to Middle Tennessee) and a 3-point UCF road loss in the H2H is pretty much a push when it comes to evaluating performance. It's close and this ranking could go either way but I'm going to defer to the computers on this one.
25 Cincinnati Bearcats The flip side to the above is that, if Cinci proved on the field that they can go toe-to-toe with a ranked team, then they look like a ranked team themselves. They're the lowest-ranked team in my Top 25 for both FPI and SP+ so I definitely am giving them a boost for their win against UCF, just not as much as most people would prefer. Honorable Mention: Boise State, SMU, Oklahoma State, Memphis, Minnesota

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