BosskOnASegway Ballot for 2019 Week 7
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 7, 2019, 9:34 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Minor change from last week: the bottom of the rankings this week was dominated by teams from chaotic conferences (specifically the AAC), adding a requirement for at least a 0.666 record or better.  Will be removed after thing are more leveled out.Ranked by probability of making the playoffs based on 538's predictive model until teams are below 5% then switches to ranking by Conference champ probability among teams tracked on 538's playoff predictor otherwise no G5 teams will show up. If there still aren't enough teams before conference champ probability falls below 5%, strength of record of the remaining teams is used to rank them.  This helps better capture NY6 probability after playoffs become unrealistic/longshot goals for some teams.  Additionally, as strength of record is one of the best predictors of CFP ranking, it helps reflect what the CFP values toward the bottom of the list.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Clemson Tigers
|
Playoff: 73% |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
Playoff: 53% |
| 3 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
Playoff: 48% |
| 4 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
Playoff: 48% |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
Playoff: 35% |
| 6 |
LSU Tigers
|
Playoff: 24% |
| 7 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
Playoff: 19% |
| 8 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
Playoff: 15% |
| 9 |
Florida Gators
|
Playoff: 13% (I wish PSU and Florida were flipped, exposes a bit of a flaw in this approach with how top heavy the SEC is) |
| 10 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
Playoff: 12% |
| 11 |
Oregon Ducks
|
Playoff: 11% |
| 12 |
Baylor Bears
|
Playoff: 8% (another flaw in this approach, in conferences with 1 clear top team a clear 2nd team that is lower calibre gets elevated a bit) |
| 13 |
Auburn Tigers
|
Playoff: 7% |
| 14 |
Texas Longhorns
|
Playoff: 6% |
| 15 |
Boise State Broncos
|
Conference: 40% |
| 16 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
Conference: 36% |
| 17 |
SMU Mustangs
|
Conference: 19% |
| 18 |
Memphis Tigers
|
Conference: 15%  |
| 19 |
Utah Utes
|
Conference: 14% |
| 20 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
Conference: 9% (Thank the lord of dance finally a second ACC team I was worried, still think I need the rework) |
| 21 |
Washington Huskies
|
Conference: 7% |
| 22 |
Arizona State Sun Devils
|
Conference: 6% |
| 23 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|
Conference: 5% |
| 24 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
Strength of Record: #13 |
| 25 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
Strength of Record: #17 |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.60 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Florida Gators
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.14 |
| 12 |
Baylor Bears
|
1.02 |
| 13 |
Auburn Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-0.01 |
| 15 |
Boise State Broncos
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
2.17 |
| 17 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Memphis Tigers
|
0.01 |
| 19 |
Utah Utes
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
Washington Huskies
|
2.37 |
| 22 |
Arizona State Sun Devils
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|
-0.39 |
| 24 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
-1.22 |
| 25 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
-0.72 |
Minnesota Golden Gophers