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stripes361 Ballot for 2019 Week 5

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 23, 2019, 2:05 p.m.

Overall Rationale: This is a forward-looking, predictive ballot. It is not a resume ranking. I start with an aggregate of the FPI and SP+ computer rankings and then adjust the teams based off of several "human" factors, including coaching, QB play, roster balance, eye test, and injuries. Because it is forward-looking, long-term injuries can significantly alter a team's ranking even before on-field performance has been affected.

Rank Team Reason
1 Clemson Tigers
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Ohio State Buckeyes My first change in the Top 6 this season is to jump Ohio State from #5 up to #3. It may be premature, and the O.G. Miami University (over a century older than Miami-Florida) is not a great feather in the cap. But I issued a warning shot last week that Ohio State was primed for a jump and this week seems like a good week to pull the trigger given that OSU has now risen to 3rd in FPI and 2nd in SP+. Given Alabama's defensive/injury issues, a jump to 2nd isn't out of the question either.
4 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia "drops" to #4 more as a result of Ohio State's statistical dominance and Justin Fields' dynamism more than anything that Georgia has done "wrong". However, this is a good time to make two notes about my system which run counter to the conventional wisdom. The first is that, yes, teams can drop even while getting a "good" resume win, such as the one Georgia had over Notre Dame this past Saturday. The second, which goes hand in hand with the first, is that I avoid a reductionist linearism in my thinking about ordinal rankings. In other words, not all spaces are "equally" far apart. Even though I had Notre Dame ranked 10th last week, there was a much bigger gap between 10th place and 3rd place than there was between, say, 10th place and 17th place (Utah). More specifically, there was a huge gulf between my Top 6 and the next six or so teams, which means that the Dawgs' six-point home win was actually a below-expectation performance. (Vegas had Georgia as two-touchdown favorites, which corroborates this viewpoint.) Perform below expectation and you're liable to drop, no matter how good the result is in a vacuum. Perform above expectation and you have a chance to rise, no matter how bad the result.
5 LSU Tigers
6 Oklahoma Sooners
7 Wisconsin Badgers I have ranked Wisconsin 7th on every ballot so far this season and they backed up my faith in them in a big time way this past Saturday. Granted, Michigan was "only" 16th for me, so I don't rate the performance as highly as most will, but it was still easily worthy of Wisconsin's position on my ballot. The Badgers have achieved some separation from the teams below them and are dangerously close to making my Top 6 a Top 7.
8 Auburn Tigers Auburn benefits from my previous #11 ranking of Texas A&M and rises to 8th on my ballot this week after beating the Aggies comfortably in College Station.
9 Oregon Ducks
10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Yes, Notre Dame stays put at 10th despite a road loss to Georgia this past weekend. The flip side of Georgia playing below expectation is that the Irish must have been above expectation, and honestly were closer to rising than they were to falling. Auburn and Oregon did enough to maintain their spots ahead of Notre Dame for another week.
11 Penn State Nittany Lions
12 Texas Longhorns Texas continues to rise on my ballot each week in advance of its computer rankings, which still have the Longhorns as a barely Top 20 team. Measured concerns about its defense keep them out of the Top 10 for now but the offense can score with anyone. The good thing about my ballot is that poll inertia is not an ironclad rule, and if Texas maintains their high level of play they will continue to rise regardless of results around them.
13 Washington Huskies Washington's dominant road win over BYU is one of the more underrated performances of the weekend.
14 Texas A&M Aggies Texas A&M may be 2-2 but their losses have come to #1 and #8. This is entirely congruent with being the 14th best team.
15 Florida Gators
16 Iowa Hawkeyes
17 Michigan State Spartans
18 UCF Knights One point road losses usually do not draw too harsh a punishment from me. Even though I am not very high on Pitt, a 5-place drop from #13 to #18 is enough. Central Florida is not a Playoff contender but they are still a high-powered team which will be a leading contender for the American title.
19 Mississippi State Bulldogs
20 Missouri Tigers Missouri has been rolling since a season-opening loss to Wyoming.
21 USC Trojans USC jumps back in the Top 25 with an impressive performance against Utah.
22 Utah Utes
23 Oklahoma State Cowboys Oklahoma State doesn't fall far after a competitive loss to Texas.
24 Michigan Wolverines
25 Kansas State Wildcats Kansas State's FPI and SP+ rankings are now both in the Top 30 as they benefit from this week's scaling back of preseason prediction weights. Their Mississippi State win looks even better now as well. Other 4-0 P5 teams such as Virginia, Wake Forest, and Cal continue to lag well behind the Top 25 in terms of their underlying metrics. Cal may be the most intriguing case, having a (one-point) road win over a strong Washington side but also three unimpressive performances in wins over cupcakes. With the capability of playing anyone close, competing well with great teams but struggling to get separation from bad teams, they are exactly the type of squad which creates the largest rifts between various schools of thoughts in evaluating teams. Baylor, meanwhile, drops out of the Top 25 after an unimpressive win against Rice. Honorable Mention: Iowa State, Baylor, Washington State

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