Ballot Type: Human
Submitted: Sept. 22, 2019, 7:32 p.m.
Overall Rationale: This week, I wanted to experiment and see how the ballot would look if I totally disregarded priors/preseason expectations, and tried to create a poll based only on what has been accomplished on the field so far this season. This is a different method than I used last week, because last week was still too early in the season to even attempt to disregard priors, so it may lead to some significant differences for some teams. Of note, this also hurt Alabama A LOT, mainly because they've played almost nobody good, while the rest of the top 6 have.I also am placing much less importance this week on whether teams win or lose than how they play and who they play against as an experiment, which helps teams like Texas, Auburn, and Oregon, and hurts teams like Florida (who has been too inconsistent for me, and hasn't played anyone good, even though they are undefeated) and particularly Michigan, who got dumped from my ballot because of this. Both these decisions were made before starting my ballot, so I'm sorry in advance if it ends up looking weird. If it turns out too indefensibly oddly, I may switch one or both rationales back to how they were originally next week.Big movers were the middle of the rankings, because there was some chaos there this week. UVA rises 6 (more "defaults into rising 6"), UW rises 14, Utah drops 4, UCF drops 11. USC enters the ballot at 20. Cal, SMU, and Tulane also enter my ballot.Next 5 out are Michigan State, Oklahoma State, NDSU, Wake Forest, and A&M, in some order.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | LSU Tigers | LSU has the #1 spot in this poll mainly because I have disregarded preseason priors this week. They have a razor-thin lead over Georgia based mainly on a slight edge in margin of victory against comparable opponents. They, with Georgia, have one of the two strongest wins of the season over Texas. +2 |
2 | Georgia Bulldogs | As mentioned, Georgia is the slightest margin behind LSU in this poll. They are also not far in front of Clemson. +2 |
3 | Clemson Tigers | Clemson falls into the 3 spot mainly because of A&M's loss to Auburn (as well as removal of preseason expectations from my ballot), which harms Clemson's claim to the best win of the season. A&M looked just as lost on offense against Auburn as they did against Clemson. And outside of them, Clemson has beaten nobody even remotely of note. -2 |
4 | Auburn Tigers | Auburn's edge over Ohio State comes from their good wins against A&M and Tulane, and their outstanding win against Oregon. They haven't left no doubts, but a resume that strong is worthy of a top 4 ranking this early in the season (again, ignoring preseason expectations). +3 |
5 | Ohio State Buckeyes | Ohio State has not played anybody *fantastic*, but they have looked utterly dominant in the games they have played. Dominant wins over Nebraska and particularly Michigan State can move them up in my ballot. +1 |
6 | Alabama Crimson Tide | Alabama has played nobody and looked good doing it. This is probably going to be my most controversial ranking... they have a lot of opportunities to make up the ground to the top 2 with the back of their schedule. They just had a terribly weak OOC slate. And again, lack of preseason expectations in this ballot hurt them a ton. -4 |
7 | Wisconsin Badgers | I was not sold on Michigan going into the week--at all--and I'm even less sold on them now. It was a good win, but it came against a very overrated team, whose ranking was literally entirely driven by preseason expectations. Still, 2 shutout victories and a demolition of Michigan are worthy of a solid ranking. +2 |
8 | Oklahoma Sooners | Same problem as Bama. Oklahoma has played a lot of bad teams, and destroyed them. Without relying on preseason expectations, they have no opportunities to earn a higher ranking until the Texas game. -3 |
9 | Texas Longhorns | Texas' edge over ND comes from their victory against Oklahoma State, which is a fringe top 25 team in my mind. Other than that, they are similar teams. +1 |
10 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | See Texas. Good performance against Georgia but not good enough to win. +2 |
11 | Oregon Ducks | After this weekend, it's hard to say that Oregon isn't the Pac-12 favorite. +3 |
12 | Penn State Nittany Lions | The 7 point win over Pitt looks better now. +3 |
13 | Virginia Cavaliers | I hate having UVA here. I really do. They haven't had any dominant wins except for Pitt. But Pitt was a good win, that looks even better now, and all their other games were against decent teams (except ODU, but I can sort of give that a pass, as a nice comeback in a hangover game). They move up because of a whole variety of losses and poor performances around them. +6 |
14 | Washington Huskies | Cal looks more like a fluke game against decent opposition every week. Very solid win against a good BYU team this week, and the rest of their past opponents all had good weeks. I was not sold on this team last week. I'm still not sold, but I feel much better about them. They enter the rankings this week here, partially because I placed less value on wins vs losses this week. +12 |
15 | Utah Utes | Tough loss against USC, but it was their first loss and USC seems to be a good team. They don't drop too far. -4 |
16 | Florida Gators | As I mentioned in the overall rationale, Florida has been too hot and cold this season. Their premiere win against Miami looks pretty shit now. Their win against Kentucky looks pretty shit too. They beat Tennessee, but so did almost everybody. -3 |
17 | Iowa Hawkeyes | Iowa State did bad things to ULM this week. That helps their best win. +3 |
18 | Kansas State Wildcats | K State moves up on a bye. +3 |
19 | UCF Knights | A loss to Pitt is not a good look. But they've been dominant in every other game, which is better than most teams after them can say. The only remaining quality opponent on their schedule is Tulane (maybe Houston) so they don't have an opportunity to move up any significant distance until the end of November, which is incredibly unfortunate for them. -11 |
20 | USC Trojans | I don't and will never understand the Pac 12. USC reenters the rankings at 20. |
21 | Boise State Broncos | None of their wins have been bad--Air Force in particular may turn out to be a good team--but no win thus far has wowed me. +3 |
22 | California Golden Bears | I don't understand the Pac-12 x2. Cal remains the only undefeated team in the conference. They haven't impressed in doing it, but they've also never looked like a bad team. They enter my rankings at 22. |
23 | SMU Mustangs | Great win over TCU. They enter my rankings at 23. |
24 | Tulane Green Wave | Good win over Houston. The top of the AAC is VERY competitive this year. Tulane enters my rankings for the first time at 24. |
25 | Baylor Bears | Baylor's performance against Rice was... well, pathetic. -3 |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | LSU Tigers | 0.77 |
2 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.23 |
3 | Clemson Tigers | -0.22 |
4 | Auburn Tigers | 0.40 |
5 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.00 |
6 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -0.41 |
7 | Wisconsin Badgers | 0.00 |
8 | Oklahoma Sooners | 0.00 |
9 | Texas Longhorns | 0.14 |
10 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.00 |
11 | Oregon Ducks | 0.23 |
12 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.00 |
13 | Virginia Cavaliers | 0.42 |
14 | Washington Huskies | 0.64 |
15 | Utah Utes | 1.07 |
16 | Florida Gators | -0.92 |
17 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 0.00 |
18 | Kansas State Wildcats | 0.00 |
19 | UCF Knights | 0.42 |
20 | USC Trojans | 0.00 |
21 | Boise State Broncos | -0.54 |
22 | California Golden Bears | -0.75 |
23 | SMU Mustangs | 0.00 |
24 | Tulane Green Wave | 1.17 |
25 | Baylor Bears | 0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 0.09 |
Michigan Wolverines | 0.21 |
Total Score: 8.63