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crownebeach Ballot for 2019 Week 5

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Sept. 23, 2019, 2:03 a.m.

Overall Rationale: I usually use third-party rankings like FPI & Sagarin to check myself for confirmation bias, but I'm leaning on them less for this week; computer rankings can get a little screwy for a while once they start eliminating preseason priors. Margin of victory and pure-points ratings start to look a little more convincing at this point in the season, but I'm still mostly concerned with 1. yards per play margin (objective measure), 2. team talent (mix of objective and subjective measures), and 3. balance (subjective, both offense/defense and pass/run). 

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Clemson Tigers
3 Ohio State Buckeyes Four straight absolute massacres. I still have a sliver of doubt based on their bland strength of schedule so far, but they are really close to overtaking Clemson.
4 LSU Tigers LSU had opened up a bit of a gap over UGA on my last few ballots. Consider that gap officially closed. The Tiger defense is already bloodied pretty badly, so the bye week couldn't come at a better time.
5 Georgia Bulldogs
6 Oklahoma Sooners
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish The Irish did exactly what they were supposed to do: went into a tough road building against a top-5 team, hung around, and even had a distant chance to take the lead late. No change from last week, don't @ me.
8 Oregon Ducks I'm a little anxious that the running game hasn't looked good of late, but there are health issues right now that might explain it. Another team that's getting its bye week at the right time, and the defense deserves all the praise that's been lavished upon it so far.
9 Wisconsin Badgers The first-half stats from Bucky's win over Michigan are stunning. Out-rushed the Wolverines 200-9. *Nine.* Time of possession: twenty-three minutes. I only wish Wisky could catch Ohio State in Madison this year. I was wrong to doubt the Badgers, and I hope you'll forgive me.
10 Florida Gators
11 Texas Longhorns My opinion of Texas hasn't changed much since the start of the season, so much as my opinion of a bunch of other teams has gone way down. UT still looks a little young and a little one-dimensional, but they also look well-coached and confident.
12 Auburn Tigers The box score is slightly misleading -- A&M racked up almost half their yards late in the game while they were chasing a big deficit. Even so, Auburn didn't control this one as much as they could have (should have?). Running and run defense are both strengths, but the pass defense showed vulnerability. Not a good sign for the road trip to LSU or the finale v. Bama.
13 Michigan State Spartans The sky wasn't falling after the ASU loss. The gap between Ohio State and the rest of the East is big, and MSU's remaining schedule is prohibitively difficult, so I don't think they're a B1G title challenger. I do, however, really like their chances of scoring a road upset over either tOSU or Wisconsin.
14 Washington Huskies That's the Jacob Eason I was expecting to see. The playcalling is still absolute trash, but the offensive line looked more confident and Eason's accuracy was a cut above for the first time. This is probably the last team on the list with legit Playoff hopes, albeit on life support.
15 Oklahoma State Cowboys Spencer Sanders has freshman-QB syndrome, and that's ok. I still think the Pokes are pretty good, and a close loss @ Texas is nbd, but I'm going to walk back some of my Big 12 Championship hype for them. Wait and see.
16 Texas A&M Aggies
17 Boise State Broncos
18 Utah Utes Actually outgained the Trojans overall, but gotta sort out the big play bugs on defense. USC's receivers are amazing in space, and there's no shame in not being able to run with them man-to-man, but there is shame in failing to adjust; at some point you've got to stop trying and just play contain.
19 Penn State Nittany Lions
20 UCF Knights Dillon Gabriel might not be ready for prime time yet, but UCF is still totally fine. Pitt did offer a very good defensive road map to slow the Knights down, though: load the box against the run, press the outside receivers, and force them to challenge you on tight downfield windows. If you deny Killins & McCrae, UCF has to settle for lower-percentage looks.
21 Iowa Hawkeyes
22 Memphis Tigers
23 USC Trojans I said at the start of the year that Helton would be safe at 8-4, and for the moment it actually looks like SC is going to get there. Even if they lose the next two on the road, this is still a pretty good football team.
24 Baylor Bears Only beating Rice by a touchdown isn't great, but the Bears suffered two lost fumbles and still outgained the Owls by 200 yards, while holding them under 4 yards/play. Fluky, weird, but ultimately forgivable.
25 Iowa State Cyclones I wasn't on the preseason bandwagon, but I'll buy 'Clones stock while it's low; they clobbered Iowa in total yardage margin two weeks ago, then threw ULM a real beating. Cal fans will be upset not to make my ballot (No. 26), but I think the Bears are outperforming their peripherals right now. Iowa St, on the other hand, is underperforming its peripherals and should rise soon.

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