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CoopertheFluffy Ballot for 2019 Week 5

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 22, 2019, 2:52 p.m.

Overall Rationale: This ranking averages all transitive margins of victories between teams. For example, if exactly two games have been played all season: A vs B 10-7, B vs C, 7-14 the rankings would be C, A, B with C's power 4 greater than A and 7 greater than B. If C then loses to A, the ranking will be a straight point-differential ranking. This ranking does not take into account whether a team won or lost, only the point differentials. This results in quality losses overranking teams who played a top 10 team uncharacteristicly close.  Early in the season, it also places too much emphasis on a single game. Since the powers add linearly a single chain of 4 7-point games results in a prediction of a 28 point difference if the winning and losing teams in that chain play. By week 6-7, there should be enough connection between teams to average away those scenarios.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes Yim yum cupcakes158 power.
2 Penn State Nittany Lions 149 power
3 Clemson Tigers 146 power
4 Auburn Tigers Beat Oregon who demolished cupcakes and beat aTm who is decent.144 power
5 Wisconsin Badgers Devoured cupcakes. Decent win against above-average Michigan.143 power.
6 Iowa State Cyclones The ULM win was huge and uncharacteristic. ULM is an average-power team because they kept it close with FSU, and a 50 point outlier victory will result in being about 50/NumGames points overrated (16). 143 power. Iowa has 129 power and beat them by 1, so either Iowa State should have won that game by a score or two or they should have won against ULM by less (or both)
7 Oregon Ducks Destroyed cupcakes143 power.
8 Maryland Terrapins 140 power.Maryland is weird. They destroyed Howard(61) and Syracuse (118) and played close with Temple(122). Their result against Howard actually drops them a few points, and their result against Syrasuse was uncharacteristically good. They should settle in somewhere after the Penn State and Rutgers games, hopefully.
9 LSU Tigers 140 powerTook care of a couple above average teams by multiple scores.
10 Oklahoma Sooners 139 powerShould have beat Houston by more
11 Alabama Crimson Tide 138 power
12 UCF Knights 137 powerPitt has 128 power, so that was a two score+ upset. 
13 Kansas State Wildcats 135 powerThat win over Miss St boosted them up a lot.
14 Georgia Bulldogs 135 power
15 Mississippi State Bulldogs 133 powerPlayed above average teams close or beat them decently.
16 Texas A&M Aggies 133 powerQuality losses to Auburn and Clemson. 11 and 13 less power than them is roughly the 8 and 14 they lost by.
17 Texas Longhorns 132 powerBeat average teams by 30 and stayed close with LSU
18 Washington Huskies 132 powerbeat slighly above average teams by 30.
19 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 131 powerQuality loss to Miss St actually hurts them by a few points. They've been beating below-average teams by a lot.
20 Michigan State Spartans 130 powerbeat average teams by a few scores, loss to ASU was close and not held against them too much.
21 Iowa Hawkeyes 129 power.Close win against ISU helps draw them upward since ISU has uncharacteristic wins over average teams. Wins against Rutgers and Miami Hyrdroxide weren't as big of blowouts as they should have been.
22 Navy Midshipmen 129 power. Not enough data yet, but they beat average teams by 30.
23 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 129 powerAll their games are consistent with the powers. Lost to Georgia by 6, has 6 less power. Beat Louisville by 18, has 21 more power. Beat NM by 52, has 50 more power.
24 Pittsburgh Panthers 128 power.Close games with UCF and Penn State dragged them up here after mediocre showings against Ohio and Virginia
25 Oklahoma State Cowboys 128 powerBeat average and below average teams decently, kept it close with Texas.

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