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Charlemagne42 Ballot for 2019 Week 5

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 22, 2019, 1:39 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Hybrid mode time! Computer 70%, human 30%. I'll increase the computer's share progressively each week until it's all machine. It was almost ready to go 60/40 last week, but there were a few little things that didn't quite make sense yet. Like NDSU at #2. To compensate, I'm starting this week at 70/30. FORMAT: (Original computer score +/- Human adjustment -> Final score; Original computer rank -> Hybrid rank). SELF-ASSESSMENT: 10 iterations. 30% maximum human adjustment. 36 teams adjusted. Human footprint size: 73.1.

Rank Team Reason
1 Clemson Tigers (83 + 24 -> 107; 28 -> 1) The model really really hates the ACC. And I don't blame it. The conference's signature OOC wins are over Texas A&M, UCF, and North Carolina. Just for fun, I aggregated conference "rankings" according to the model; ignoring the Ivy for reasons noted above, the ACC fits squarely between the American below and the Mountain West above. It's the only P5 conference rated below a G5 conference. (+0 from last week)
2 LSU Tigers (112 - 6 -> 106; 3 -> 2) LSU's big win over Texas is boosting their rating, sure, but the model is unfairly looking ahead at Auburn and salivating over the Tigers. (+0)
3 Ohio State Buckeyes (107 - 2 -> 105; 4 -> 3)  (+0)
4 Alabama Crimson Tide (94 + 10 -> 104; 15 -> 4) (+0)
5 Georgia Bulldogs (95 + 8 -> 103; 14 -> 5) Georgia should not have struggled with Notre Dame, especially at home. They're still waiting for a stumble from one of the four above them. They can't afford to stumble themselves. (+0)
6 Oklahoma Sooners (82 + 18 -> 100; 32 -> 6) Oklahoma enjoys the 6th-largest adjustment jump in terms of ranks, the third-largest absolute score bonus, and the 6th-largest percentage bonus. Why is the model so low on Oklahoma? First, they've only got three games while most of the teams above have four. Second, their OOC scheduling has been terrible - Houston just lost to Tulane, UCLA went 0-3 OOC themselves, and South Dakota is the worst of the four Dakotas. (+0)
7 Wisconsin Badgers (102 - 3 > 99; 9 ->7) (+3)
8 Auburn Tigers (138 - 40 -> 98; 1 -> 8) Yep, the model had Auburn at #1. By TWENTY-FIVE POINTS. They got nearly the maximum penalty this week and still the War Eagle flies high at 8. Why? Oregon has gone on to do unspeakable things (albeit to awful competition) after losing to Auburn, and even Tulane has obliged by somehow (ahem trick plays) going 3-0 outside of their loss to Auburn. (+10)
9 Penn State Nittany Lions (86 + 11 -> 97; 23 -> 9) I'm gonna be honest, after #8 the world of CFB dissolves into murky soup. Somebody had to be #9, and Penn State has quietly notched a win over a sneaky good Buffalo, dodged the Pitt upset superweapon, and put up 79 points on a recently-FBS opponent. (+0)
10 Texas Longhorns (97 - 1 -> 96; 11 -> 10) (+4)
11 Boise State Broncos (95 + 0 -> 95; 12 -> 11) The Mountain West is the only conference rated above a P5 conference. Boise is firmly in control of that conference. No need to adjust the model's assessment of them this week. (+1)
12 Washington Huskies (95 - 1 -> 94; 13 -> 12) (+3)
13 Oregon Ducks (97 - 4 -> 93; 10 -> 13) (+7)
14 Memphis Tigers (71 + 21 -> 92; 46 -> 14) Memphis this week enjoys the second-largest human adjustment jump in rank, the second-largest absolute adjustment bonus, and the largest percentage bonus. The model docks them for only having played three games, looking past their defensive masterpiece against Ole Miss, and their demonstration last week of what a top-25 team does to South Alabama. (+3)
15 Florida Gators (91 + 0 -> 91; 17 -> 15) (+4)
16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (88 + 0 -> 88; 21 -> 16) (-8)
17 Kansas State Wildcats (113 - 26 -> 87; 2 -> 17) Remember last week when I said I was ranking KSU in anticipation of hybrid mode? This is why. The model loves the win in Starkville, the 52-point shutout of... technically an FBS team, and the 5-score beatdown of a top-25 FCS team. Kansas State is scary, y'all. There's still a wizard wearing purple on the sidelines in Manhattan. They just haven't put this one's name on the stadium yet. (+4)
18 Iowa Hawkeyes (86 + 0 -> 86; 24 -> 18) (+4)
19 Colorado Buffaloes (81 + 4 -> 85; 33 -> 19) (NEW)
20 USC Trojans (75 + 9 -> 84; 42 -> 20) Will USC please decide if they wish to be ranked or not? They should honestly decide not; being ranked as a Pac-12 team is inviting any other Pac-12 team to upset you. (NEW)
21 California Golden Bears (102 - 19 -> 83; 8 -> 21) Large penalty this week for Cal. They had no business beating Ole Miss, especially with that butchery of an officiating job by the Pac-12 crew. And Ole Miss is bad. Cal needs to win more big conference games, and the conference needs to not eat itself to pieces again like every year. (+4)
22 Michigan Wolverines (70 + 12 -> 82; 48 -> 22) I honestly thought Michigan's score would be inflated this week, seeing as their performance against Wisconsin's scoring defense is #DIV/0! . Nope, they had to get a boost just to keep them above the FCS teams I can't actually rank. (-15)
23 Michigan State Spartans (69 + 12 -> 81; 50 -> 23) Look, you try finding someone that deserves a number by their name on TV. Maybe the Arizona State thing was a fluke. Maybe not. I'm only using my model's top 60, so I couldn't even stretch for UCF or Tulane or some other high-performance G5 to fill the space. Maybe someone else will do something rank-worthy next week. (NEW)
24 Oklahoma State Cowboys (69 + 11 -> 80; 51 -> 24) Once again, somebody has to be ranked. Yes they just lost in Austin for the first time since the Bush presidency, but it was a respectable, close loss at a quality opponent's place. I assume. I didn't watch. Too much orange. (NEW)
25 Utah Utes (62 + 17 -> 79; 58 -> 25) Look, I had to dredge down to #60, past many FCS teams ineligible for ranking, and teams with even more embarrassing recent performances, just to get to someone who maybe sort of deserved a spot. Utah isn't out of the Pac-12 race yet, although this last loss may have knocked them out of playoff consideration. (-9) Dropped: Texas A&M (from 11), UCF (13), Army (23), Arizona State (24)

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