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stripes361 Ballot for 2019 Week 4

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 16, 2019, 3:38 p.m.

Overall Rationale: This is a forward-looking, predictive ballot. It is not a resume ranking. I start with an aggregate of the FPI and SP+ computer rankings and then adjust the teams based off of several "human" factors, including coaching, QB play, roster balance, eye test, and injuries. Because it is forward-looking, long-term injuries can significantly alter a team's ranking even before on-field performance has been affected.

Rank Team Reason
1 Clemson Tigers Still keeping the Tigers at #1 despite trailing Alabama in the metrics that form the backbone of my rankings. I'm not wedded to the idea of "keeping the champion #1 until they lose" but Alabama has some injury issues which may cause serious issues down the road and I don't think Clemson has played to their potential yet. This is certainly up for change in future weeks, however, and not just after a Clemson loss.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama has some recognizable roster holes this year, especially with injuries, but their strengths are just on a different level from other teams'.
3 Georgia Bulldogs #3-6: These four teams remain unchanged after crushing overmatched opposition. Week Three didn't really teach us anything about them but they round out the "elite tier" of college football squads.
4 LSU Tigers
5 Ohio State Buckeyes I have a feeling these guys may wind up even better than #5 but I want to see how Ryan Day and Justin Fields fare against top competition.
6 Oklahoma Sooners
7 Wisconsin Badgers
8 Oregon Ducks I have Oregon above where they "should" be based on the computers but they have such a terrific combination of great QB play and defense, just like the two squads following close behind them. They could even be as high as #7.
9 Auburn Tigers For those of you who missed the memo last week, yes I am aware that I have Auburn one spot below a team they beat H2H. It was a close game, not at all a dominant performance for Auburn, and I legitimately believe the team with the better roster lost. Upsets happen, which is why I don't weigh H2H too heavily (or at all) in my ballots.
10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish For the 2nd straight week, I considered placing Notre Dame above Auburn. This will continue to be a tight race up for evaluation on a week to week basis.
11 Texas A&M Aggies
12 Penn State Nittany Lions 8 to 12 may seem like a huge week over week drop for Penn State following a win against a rival but 7 through 12 on my ballot are all separated by a fine margin. They are all on the same tier and subject for "re-organization" each game.
13 UCF Knights Dillon Gabriel is looking like a capable replacement for McKenzie Milton, which means UCF has the potential to shoot pretty high up my ballot over the coming weeks. Up four spots from last week, they are the biggest winners of this past Saturday's action.
14 Texas Longhorns Texas *rises* two spots from last week after a win over Rice which sent them down the SP+ table and up the FPI table. I have them below most of the Reddit pollsters, and below where I think they will ultimately land, on the basis of the weak computer numbers. Still, if they can sort out their defensive issues, they have the potential to be better than any other team outside my "elite tier" at the top.
15 Florida Gators The loss of Feleipe Franks may really prove costly to the Gators if his replacement is unable to maintain the high level of play he brought against Kentucky this past weekend. Honestly, they would have dropped even more as a result of Franks' injury if the soft middle of my Top 25 had a better week. As it is, no one besides UCF and Texas really showed me enough to jump a team which is still Top 11 (quite suitably for an SEC team) in both FPI and SP+.
16 Michigan Wolverines Michigan put in their best performance of 2019 this week and move up two spots.
17 Utah Utes Kyle Wittingham is one of the most underrated coaches out there. This team should compete in just about every game on its schedule. Speaking of schedule, their next six games are brutal.
18 Iowa Hawkeyes It wasn't pretty but road wins at Iowa State are harder to come by these days than people realize. They join Oklahoma as the only program with multiple wins in Jack Trice during Matt Campbell's tenure as Head Cyclone.
19 Washington State Cougars Washington State had a solid...neutral site win against Houston in Texas on Friday. Not quite impressive enough to jump up the rankings but good enough to solidify their spot in the Top 25.
20 Washington Huskies Washington's 52-20 victory over Hawaii was one of this weekend's underrated performances. They are also very closely grouped in Washington State and Iowa in my mind, giving them a better chance to move up than down in the short term future.
21 Oklahoma State Cowboys My mental model of Oklahoma State is that they are a lot like Washington State, just marginally less so.
22 Mississippi State Bulldogs The Bulldogs are still 13th in SP+ and 24th in FPI this week despite a fairly decisive loss to Kansas State this past week. I'm a Joe Moorehead believer but he has more of a rebuild on his hands than I initially thought. Down eight spots this week, Mississippi State are joint biggest losers from Saturday.
23 Michigan State Spartans Michigan State falls right in lockstep with Mississippi State. Their loss was closer but I'm not quite as high on Arizona State as I am on Kansas State so it's just about a wash. FPI's 16th ranked team would have so much potential if they could just...move the ball and score points once in a while.
24 Missouri Tigers Not sold on the Tigers and definitely not sold on Kelly Bryant. Their blowout of WVU is saving them for now but they are on a very short rope with me.
25 Baylor Bears The Bears are Top 30 in both FPI and SP+ and sort of slid in here by default. The top computer picks, USC and Miami, are teams I just don't quite trust yet, especially not USC. I want Kedon Slovis to prove the Stanford game wasn't a fluke before I put the Trojans back on my ballot. Meanwhile, the top human picks (3-0 resume darlings like Cal, Kansas State, Arizona State, Virginia, and Wake) are lacking a little in the computer numbers. Honorable Mention: TCU, Virginia, Kansas State, Miami

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