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crownebeach Ballot for 2019 Week 4

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Sept. 16, 2019, 3:24 a.m.

Overall Rationale: General notes: 1) Not a resume ranking. In theory, I am ranking the teams based on their overall quality relative to the field. 2) I am skeptical of total-points computer methods, especially early in the season. Fumbles are dumb luck. Housed kickoff returns are dumb luck. Defensive touchdowns are dumb luck. 3) As in the preseason poll, I prioritize balanced contributions: glaring yards-per-play disparities or neglecting one side of the ball will hurt you.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Clemson Tigers Clemson doesn't look quite right, but they could play all season with food poisoning and be better than everyone left on their schedule.
3 LSU Tigers
4 Georgia Bulldogs
5 Ohio State Buckeyes
6 Oklahoma Sooners I wonder if UCLA wants Jim Mora back yet. They probably should; OU's 48-14 beatdown was the Bruins' worst loss since the Neuheisel era.
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
8 Oregon Ducks Good and getting better: 55% to win the conference, per FPI.
9 Florida Gators Falling a couple this week. Should probably have lost to Kentucky, although it was a road game and the per-play stats all favor Florida. I'd feel a lot better about this if you could blow out someone better than UT-Martin.
10 Texas Longhorns
11 Auburn Tigers
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys Tulsa maybe has a little bit of a defense, but as far as trailing at the half goes, this wasn't too bad. Pokes lost two dumb turnovers, basically took the second quarter off, and still cruised in the end.
13 Utah Utes Abused a bad team. Has to go to USC on Friday night for the Pac-12's patented "contender on the road after-hours" trap game of the week, but the transitive property of BYU says they should win. Go Utes, #FireLarryScott.
14 Wisconsin Badgers Lost the bye week, I guess. Dropped a spot only because Auburn and Utah looked very strong.
15 UCF Knights I fully expected UCF to run over Stanford's defense; I didn't expect them to hold K.J. Costello to <200 yards and Colby Parkinson to only 5 catches. An electric statement win. Nobody in the conference can run with them except maybe Memphis.
16 Michigan State Spartans Outgained Arizona St both overall (404-216) and per play (5.45 to 4.15), won more first downs (23 to 14), and even *outpunted* ASU (45 yards/punt to 41). And lost. It is the most mind-boggling box score I have ever seen.
17 Texas A&M Aggies The computer rankings all say I'm too low on A&M, but their offense hasn't shown me anything above fourth gear yet, so I'm reserving judgment. Nice prove-it game upcoming against a fabulous Auburn defense.
18 Michigan Wolverines
19 Boise State Broncos
20 Washington State Cougars Had a long touchdown called back for literally no reason, so this game was probably a bigger scare than it needed to be, but Wazzu got pushed around more than I expected on the line of scrimmage. Will absolutely still beat the tar out of UCLA at home.
21 Iowa Hawkeyes Really should have lost the game. Shredded through the air, couldn't get any pressure on Purdy, and needed two hideous Iowa State blunders to escape. It was a bad look and I'm docking the Hawkeyes, down five spots.
22 Penn State Nittany Lions Fearsome defense, timid offense. This was the dress rehearsal for Michigan State, and Sean Clifford didn't shine. Wasn't bold enough attacking the outside, and generally let Pitt keep the ball in front of them. Wasn't helped by poor protection, but the running game did look improved.
23 Memphis Tigers
24 Washington Huskies Something's really wrong here. Allowing 400 yards to Hawaii is not something we're supposed to see from Washington. I'm not selling all my Husky stock yet, but they might have to score their way out of a few jams.
25 Baylor Bears Went back and forth between a couple of teams in this spot, but Baylor gets a very cautious nod. For the first time since he got there, I think Matt Rhule actually has the personnel to play defense, and I trust Charlie Brewer a lot. I'll talk about first teams out in the comments.

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