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stripes361 Ballot for 2018 Week 5

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 25, 2018, 7:34 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Performance/team quality ranking, based primarily on ESPN's FPI and Football Outsiders' S&P+ rankings. Not intended to be a resume ranking. Teams moved up and down from their spots in the computer rankings based on eye test, coaching, QB play, and other subjective factors.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama fans have been concerned about their young defense and it showed just a bit this past Saturday, surrendering 22 first downs and almost 400 yards of offense to an admittedly very good Texas A&M team. Their overall level of performance, though, has been as good as anyone could have hoped.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State continued its dominance against Tulane this past Saturday. A trip to Penn State this upcoming week should be the Buckeyes' biggest test of the year. A win there and Ohio State will seem destined for the Playoff.
3 Georgia Bulldogs The race between Clemson and Georgia for the #3 spot is neck-and-neck. FPI prefers Georgia. S&P+ prefers Clemson by the same margin. I'll defer for the moment to Georgia's stability at the QB position.
4 Clemson Tigers I've kept Clemson relatively down in my rankings the past two seasons because of my reservations about Kelley Bryant. Freshly minted starter Trevor Lawrence could change all that. The Tigers have made the last three College Football Playoffs and have a 62% chance to make it four in a row according to ESPN Analytics. It's possible that in a couple years they will have become college football's new premier dynasty.
5 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State is still maddeningly inconsistent but have a 40% chance to reach the CFP according to ESPN Analytics. They were my preseason darkhorse for the Playoff and, if they can beat the Buckeyes at home this Saturday, will move from darkhorse status to entrenched contender.
6 Oklahoma Sooners Not going to punish a team for struggling against a service academy option team. Especially not a service academy option team with an 80 point transitive win against Virginia Tech.
7 Washington Huskies Washington took care of business against a reasonably tough Arizona State.
8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish My #8 team from last week, Mississippi State, bombed. I take advantage of my platform here to celebrate when my controversial picks turn out to be right so I'd be remiss not to acknowledge a horrible whiff. Notre Dame regained my trust and confidence in their offense by starting the much more dynamic Ian Book in place of languid passer Brandon Wimbush. This team could go far with a true passing threat.
9 Stanford Cardinal Initially I was going to drop Stanford because they really should have lost to Oregon. The Ducks were right on the edge of Victory Formation territory and could have run almost the entire clock out by kneeling. That being said, it was a Top 20 road game and I didn't want to end up punishing the Cardinal more for almost losing a close one than I would have for actually losing it. They also showed admirable resilience in erasing a 17-point halftime deficit (on the road against a Top 20 team). Kudos to Stanford for the big win!
10 LSU Tigers I currently have LSU well above their computer numbers after multiple impressive performances against good teams (Miami, Auburn). Their defense is for real and I like Joe Burrow well enough. Can their offense sustain an acceptable level of output while taking a four-week beating from Florida, Georgia, Miss St., and Alabama?
11 Michigan Wolverines Michigan are 6th in both FPI and S&P+. I'm still punishing them due to the "Harbaugh Factor" and am not sold on them at all, but they've responded to a season-opening loss with three straight blowouts so I really can't justify holding them back any lower than this.
12 Auburn Tigers Auburn trails only Utah in the S&P+ defensive rankings. The Tigers are quietly fielding another possible SEC West contender.
13 Wisconsin Badgers Wisconsin rebounded from the BYU letdown with an impressive double digit win at Iowa. The Hawkeyes fly under the radar but just ask Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State how their most recent games in Kinnick Stadium went. Badgers are back.
14 Michigan State Spartans The Spartans have the 8th-most efficient defense in the country according to FPI. Can their offense hold up their end of the bargain against elite opponents?
15 Texas A&M Aggies Texas A&M keeps racking up those "quality losses" and has covered the spread against both Clemson and Alabama. Can they finally add a "quality win" as well against Arkans... against Kentucky on October 6?
16 West Virginia Mountaineers West Virginia jumps over Miami for the moment with a dominant win against Kansas State. We all knew that the offense, led by the dynamic Will Grier, would be dangerous. It's the defense which has been pleasantly surprising, surrendering just 20 total points in two games against FBS competition thus far.
17 Mississippi State Bulldogs Mississippi State takes a big tumble from last week's rankings after being dominated by a Kentucky team that is better than I expected in the preseason. However, the Bulldogs remain a formidable opponents for any SEC team, as they rank in the Top 25 offensively and defensively in both FPI and S&P+. I like balance as much as I like dominant road wins against Kansas State, so for the moment the Bulldogs are staying in the Top 20.
18 Miami Hurricanes Just like Clemson, Miami has an evolving situation at quarterback. It could end up being a distraction but ultimately it has the potential to kick the team into its highest gear and lead them to another year of Coastal Division glory. The 31-17 final scoreline against FIU this week belies a dominant performance which saw the Hurricanes rack up a 488-187 advantage in total yards and a 27-7 margin in first downs. FIU's points all came in the game's final 7 minutes.
19 Oklahoma State Cowboys Oklahoma State followed a brilliant win against Boise State with a dud of a game against Texas Tech. The Cowboys need to re-establish momentum against the relatively soft midsection of their schedule.
20 Duke Blue Devils Duke held serve this week with a ho-hum win over a weak NC Central.
21 Boise State Broncos Boise State didn't show up to a game this week. Neither did half of the AP Top 25.
22 Texas Tech Red Raiders Texas Tech rises to 17th in FPI after a masterclass against Oklahoma State, giving them a second solid win after beating Houston. The tireless QB factory in Lubbock seems to have pumped out another A-one passer in Alan Bowman.
23 Kentucky Wildcats Kentucky was only 35th in FPI this week, easily the lowest of any of the teams that made my rankings. But they are a dominant 14th in S&P+, making them a tricky one to rank for me. In the end, their offense (39th in FPI and 57th in S&P+) has me feeling to skeptical to slot them any higher.
24 Florida Gators Florida did that thing they like doing where they look really impressive against a "name-brand" program. Can they show up two weeks in a row when they play Mississippi State?
25 Texas Longhorns I really did not want to put a team who lost to (possibly respectable?) Maryland and nearly lost to certainly unrespectable Tulsa in my Top 25. But the computers love the Longhorns and they didn't just eke out wins against two FPI Top 30 teams (USC, TCU); they dominated. So, for now, Texas get the vote. Honorable Mentions: South Carolina, Fresno State, Central Florida

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