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WhiteBaseCoat Ballot for 2017 Week 4

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 19, 2017, 8:46 a.m.

Overall Rationale: (sum of scores of FBS teams beaten)/2 + (number of FBS wins). This is /u/WhiteBaseCoat's PLRCOAT Index (short for "Popping Like Rennie Curran On A Tackle" Index), and it is all I used for this ranking. FBS wins. That's it. It's 100% resume based, except for tiebreakers where I just make a judgment call (thus the "hybrid" ballot type, because that did happen for about half the teams on this list - I expect the numbers will become more varied and my personal involvement will thus shrink as the season progresses). Some would call this lazy. I call it elegant. Also probably lazy. I don't care about preseason rankings, because I want to get away from conjecture and on to the cold hard facts. I don't care about FCS wins, because they're too darned annoying to try to account for and just about everybody has them anyway so why bother. I don't even care about FCS losses, because I don't care about losses in general. If you lose to an FCS team or to a bunch of FBS teams and still somehow still manage to be good enough to put up a strong resume, then that sounds great! I'd love to see it happen. Probably won't though. You'll notice that it's somewhat recursive, if you're the kind of person who notices that sort of thing - teams with no FBS wins have a score of 0, teams that have only wins over 0-point FBS teams will have a score equal to the number of teams they've beaten, and from there it just works. I included the divide-by-two factor because I felt that ultimately the more "indirect" a win is for a particular team, the less it should count - this is a crazy sport where weird results happen, and I felt that just adding up all "indirect" and 2nd+ order wins would get weird and out of control and not fit with what I'm aiming for. Anyway, feel free to check my math on this - I'll have specific breakdowns in each team's reasoning on why the PLRCOAT likes these 25 teams. If anybody with a really calculation-centric brain sees any major flaws or has general tips for cleaning up this formula then please let me know - obviously there's some really odd results in here, but for the moment I'm chalking them up to early-season weirdness, and I like the way it's looking in general. I could be completely off-the-mark, though, and any and all suggestions are welcome. I am already a little concerned about how the current formula will completely break when win-loops get involved, but I'll cross that bridge when I get there.

Rank Team Reason
1 Clemson Tigers PLRCOAT: 5.5. Overall I'm relatively satisfied with how these first few teams sorted out. Clemson is benefiting hard from this recent win over Louisville, who has a PLRCOAT of 4; they've also beaten 0-pointer Kent State and 1-pointer Auburn, who's got nothing but the win over 0-pointer Georgia Southern. Neither is super meaningful, except that because of them Clemson is one of only 10 teams in the country with 3 FBS wins at the moment, and that's not nothing.
2 USC Trojans PLRCOAT: 4.75. There's a pretty big drop between Clemson and USC, and that's probably because USC's wins are all just generally solid without being spectacular. The PLRCOAT definitely likes big wins, but it also quite likes having a handful of fine wins. USC has three, and none are bad; Texas and Western Michigan are both sitting at 1 for wins over 0-pointers, while Stanford is at 1.5 for beating Rice (who is at 1 for beating 0-pointer UTEP).
3 Oklahoma Sooners PLRCOAT: 4.625. Oklahoma is in the same mold as Clemson, bolstered for the big win over Ohio State (3.25, see below) while pulling their FBS win total to 3 by beating 0-pointers Tulane and UTEP.
4 Michigan Wolverines PLRCOAT: 4.25. Michigan has wins over 0-pointer Air Force, 1-pointer Cincinnati, and Florida, who is at 1.5 following their win over 1-pointer Tennessee. Nothing huge, but 3 wins = good stuff.
5 Georgia Bulldogs PLRCOAT: 4.1875. I was a little concerned that the PLRCOAT would ultimately end up tiering teams by how many wins they have; however, considering Georgia has 2 FBS wins and beat out 6 teams with 3 FBS wins, this is clearly not the case. This has presented a new problem, however, in that it makes me look super biased. The truth is that Notre Dame's index of 3.375 really boosts the Dawgs here; you can see Notre Dame farther down in these rankings. Appalachian State is a 1-pointer, for what it's worth.
6 Louisville Cardinals PLRCOAT: 4. Louisville has two really solid wins here. North Carolina is at 1.5 for beating 1-pointer Old Dominion, while that Purdue win is looking good at the moment - mostly because the Boilermakers have two FBS wins, something that roughly 2/3rds of FBS cannot claim. One is over 0-pointer Missouri, but the other is 1-pointer Ohio, which puts Purdue at 2.5. Louisville is actually tied with #7, but I gave them the nod due to liking Lamar Jackson & co. more than I do... Kentucky???
7 Kentucky Wildcats PLRCOAT: 4. What? Who? How? That's it, we're done here, burn the rankings. No but really, Kentucky is mostly benefiting from 3-pointer South Carolina (see below), plus 1-pointer Southern Miss. They've got 2 solid FBS wins, nothing to see here, move along, this'll get worked out eventually. Probably.
8 Minnesota Golden Gophers PLRCOAT: 3.875. Yup, that's right, Minnesota sneaks into the top 10 right behind Kentucky, and Alabama hasn't even been ranked yet. I see no problem here. Thing about Minnesota is that we're back into the teams with three FBS wins, but none of the Golden Gophers' wins are all that great. They've got 0-pointers in Buffalo and Oregon State; what makes them top 10 is really just their win over MTSU (1.75). MTSU earned that PLRCOAT with a win over Syracuse (1.5), who in turn has a win over 1-pointer Central Michigan.
9 Alabama Crimson Tide PLRCOAT: 3.5. Alabama is tied with the next three teams, so I put them first, because ohdearlord I haven't ranked Alabama yet and I can already feel everybody losing their minds about how terrible I am at this. I'm actually sort of impressed that Alabama still got such a high score considering that their marquee win is FSU, who is technically a 0-pointer. They've also beaten 1-pointer Colorado State and 0-pointer chump team Florida State. I guess three wins over crappy teams are enough to put you ahead of the pack right now. (no but really Alabama's stock should go way up once the Seminoles get back on the field).
10 Oklahoma State Cowboys PLRCOAT: 3.5. Oklahoma State's impressively dominant win over 0-pointer Pitt doesn't get them a whole lot of love this early in the season, but they also have wins over 0-pointer South Alabama and 1-pointer Tulsa, and together that'll get them into the top 10 - I don't think it's exactly a hot take to say that Oklahoma State is better than Iowa and Memphis.
11 Iowa Hawkeyes PLRCOAT: 3.5. Iowa gets here the same way the Crimson Tide and the Cowboys do - two 0-pointers (Wyoming, North Texas) and one 1-pointer (Iowa State). I think Iowa/Memphis is a closer call than Oklahoma State/Iowa, but I'm still gonna go with Iowa as the overall better team.
12 Memphis Tigers PLRCOAT: 3.5. Memphis makes this interesting - they tie with the three bigger programs listed above because of the upset over UCLA (3, see below). Other than that they've just got a win over 0-pointer Louisiana Monroe. That says some interesting things about the current PLRCOAT system. I think overall I'm okay, if not downright happy, with those things that are being said (even if it results in something strange like this early in the season).
13 USF Bulls PLRCOAT: 3.4375. USF also gets up here in strange fashion. SJSU is only a 0-pointer, but Illinois (2.875) is the next team out in these rankings, which is fun to break down: Illinois has beaten 0-pointer WKU, but they've also beaten Ball State (1.75), who beat UAB (1.5), who beat 1-pointer Coastal Carolina, who beat 0-pointer Massachusetts. Chains of theoretically lesser teams like this should lose importance as the season continues, but I'm glad to see that early on the PLRCOAT is trying to establish quality by accounting for a multitude of indirect wins.
14 Washington State Cougars PLRCOAT: 3.375. Wazzu, Notre Dame, and Vanderbilt are all tied at the moment, and while I feel solid about putting the Cougars and Irish above the Commodores (at least right now), I wasn't sure how to distinguish the two teams from there. When it comes down to it I just like Mike Leach more than Brian Kelly. Anyway, WSU beat 0-pointer Oregon State, but they really get their points from that crazy Boise State win - BSU (2.75) has a 0-pointer win over New Mexico but more importantly a win over Troy (1.5), who beat 1-pointer NMSU, who in turn also beat 0-pointer New Mexico.
15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish PLRCOAT: 3.375. Notre Dame has two decent wins that allow them to sit around the middle of the rankings, beating 1-pointer Temple as well as Boston College (1.75), who beat NIU (1.5), who beat 1-pointer Nebraska.
16 Vanderbilt Commodores PLRCOAT: 3.375. That win over 1-pointer Kansas State isn't really paying dividends yet; it's actually beating MTSU (1.75, mentioned above in the Minnesota reasoning) that really punched their ticket well into the top 25.
17 Ohio State Buckeyes PLRCOAT: 3.25. Ohio State is tied with California. Don't get me wrong, I want on the Golden Bears hype train as much as the next guy, but I'm putting Ohio State first. Anyway, they're still hanging on in the top 25 despite not nabbing that big Oklahoma win because Army is a 1-pointer and Indiana is at 1.5 (due to their win over 1-pointer Virginia).
18 California Golden Bears PLRCOAT: 3.25. Different teams from Ohio State, same indexes: UNC is at 1.5 (for beating 1-pointer Old Dominion), while Ole Miss is the 1-pointer.
19 Penn State Nittany Lions PLRCOAT: 3. This last stretch of teams, #19-#25, is where I actually had something resembling a set of choices to make: All of the teams are tied (and, luckily, fit snugly into the top 25). Penn State just looks, in general, like the most complete team of the 7, so they got the top nod. I mentioned earlier that 10 teams have 3 FBS wins right now; Penn State and Wisconsin are the two I haven't listed yet. Each of them have three wins and all are 0-pointers. They do not get very much credit at all for them.
20 Wisconsin Badgers PLRCOAT: 3. See above.
21 Mississippi State Bulldogs PLRCOAT: 3. Mississippi State looks pretty scary right now (gulp) so I went ahead and gave them the nod for the next spot in this clump of teams. They're here because they have two wins, both 1-pointers; you would think that LSU win will really pay off down the line, but after that Tigers performance it's hard to say.
22 Duke Blue Devils PLRCOAT: 3. I couldn't decide between Duke, South Carolina, and UCLA, so ultimately I just went with 1. Duke for not screwing up, 2. South Carolina for screwing up against Kentucky, and 3. UCLA for screwing up against Memphis, who may not be demonstrably worse than Kentucky but... well... they're not demonstrably better than them. Probably. Anyway, Duke beat 2-pointer Northwestern (who themselves are sitting pretty on two 0-pointer wins) and 0-pointer Baylor. Good job, Duke.
23 South Carolina Gamecocks PLRCOAT: 3. Same thing: NC State is a 2-pointer (interestingly, they in turn have beaten 2-pointer Marshall, who has two 0-pointer wins), while Missouri is a 0-pointer.
24 UCLA Bruins PLRCOAT: 3. UCLA gets here for beating 1-pointer Texas A&M and 1-pointer Hawaii.
25 Houston Cougars PLRCOAT: 3. Power Conferences: 6. Apparently the PLRCOAT Index wants to recognize the AAC scheduling a bunch of early season games against P5 teams. Good for them, I say. It probably won't last, I also say. Houston beat 1-pointer Arizona and 1-pointer Rice, and I put them down at the bottom just because I'm not sure about how their new coaching staff will hold out in the long run.

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