shamShaman Ballot for 2025 Week 11
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 4, 2025, 8:43 a.m.
Overall Rationale: My model only uses on-the-field data from this season to make an opponent-adjusted profile for passing and rushing ypg, scoring efficiency, and a percentage of each of these stats allowed on defense. The model uses this to see how likely each team is to beat each other team, and then ranks teams based on their expected number of wins against the other 135 teams in college football. This win percentage is then scaled by each team's actual win percentage to avoid weirdness like 3-9 Nebraska being ranked when I first started this ranking a few years back. The model doesn't consider recruiting or past seasons so it tends to be better at identifying the surprising teams each season. This week, I also want to point out that it doesn't consider head-to-head results at the end. It only ranks by how many wins a team is expected to get against the other 135 teams in the FBS.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
Expected Wins: 128.13 |
| 2 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
Expected Wins: 126.88 |
| 3 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
Expected Wins: 111.83 |
| 4 |
BYU Cougars
|
Expected Wins: 109.93 |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
Expected Wins: 108.59 |
| 6 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
Expected Wins: 107.35 |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
Expected Wins: 102.87 |
| 8 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
Expected Wins: 99.91 |
| 9 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
Expected Wins: 99.00 |
| 10 |
Utah Utes
|
Expected Wins: 96.92 |
| 11 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
Expected Wins: 90.07 |
| 12 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
Expected Wins: 86.83 |
| 13 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
Expected Wins: 86.59 |
| 14 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
Expected Wins: 86.24 |
| 15 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
Expected Wins: 86.14 |
| 16 |
USC Trojans
|
Expected Wins: 86.12 |
| 17 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
Expected Wins: 84.78 |
| 18 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
Expected Wins: 84.56 |
| 19 |
Texas Longhorns
|
Expected Wins: 83.43 |
| 20 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
Expected Wins: 82.47 |
| 21 |
Washington Huskies
|
Expected Wins: 81.75 |
| 22 |
Missouri Tigers
|
Expected Wins: 78.95 |
| 23 |
San Diego State Aztecs
|
Expected Wins: 77.04 |
| 24 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
Expected Wins: 75.87 |
| 25 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
Expected Wins: 74.99 |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.28 |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.52 |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
-0.61 |
| 8 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-0.62 |
| 10 |
Utah Utes
|
0.67 |
| 11 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
1.03 |
| 12 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
2.47 |
| 14 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
USC Trojans
|
0.19 |
| 17 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-0.26 |
| 20 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
-1.17 |
| 21 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.34 |
| 22 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
San Diego State Aztecs
|
0.80 |
| 24 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
-1.48 |
| 25 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
0.00 |
Memphis Tigers