DataDrivenPirate Ballot for 2025 Week 11
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 3, 2025, 1:44 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Computer model that minimizes the squared error difference between projected spread and actual spread, adjusted for home field advantage (~2.5pts) and with a decay to put more weight in recent games and less weight in games earlier in the season. Ratings are in parentheses in description for select teams.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
(30.00) In a model that only takes point margin into account, it's no surprise Indiana is #1 and that they would be favored against OSU by 4.5pts on a neutral field. If Curt Cignetti set out to game my model, it wouldn't look any different from what he is currently doing. I have no plans to change how my model works even if I disagree with it. |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
(25.51) Somehow, the win against Texas is what holds them back the most. |
| 3 |
Utah Utes
|
(24.53) yeah beating a decent cincy team by that much will move them up a ton |
| 4 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
(23.95) Highest standard deviation of all teams in the top 25 |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
(22.21) Their OT win against PSU is going to hold them back a little bit, there is no adjustment for a team after they fire their HC |
| 6 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
(21.15) FSU loss will hold them back |
| 7 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
(21.12) |
| 8 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
(20.47) ND win is keeping them from falling further, they'll slowly sink down as that gets further in the rear view mirror |
| 9 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
(19.52) |
| 10 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
(19.44) Look I don't know what to do here, they beat Alabama and so moving them down any further starts to explode error between projected margin and actual margin. They'll slowly drift down with Miami I guess. Something to revisit in the off-season. |
| 11 |
USC Trojans
|
|
| 12 |
BYU Cougars
|
|
| 13 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
|
| 14 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
(17.99) |
| 15 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
|
| 16 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
|
| 17 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
|
| 18 |
Texas Longhorns
|
|
| 19 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
(14.99) |
| 20 |
Washington Huskies
|
|
| 21 |
USF Bulls
|
|
| 22 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
|
| 23 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
|
| 24 |
Missouri Tigers
|
|
| 25 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
(12.53) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Utah Utes
|
2.28 |
| 4 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
1.46 |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.68 |
| 8 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
1.83 |
| 9 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
-4.92 |
| 10 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
15.18 |
| 11 |
USC Trojans
|
1.65 |
| 12 |
BYU Cougars
|
-1.28 |
| 13 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-2.75 |
| 14 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
2.15 |
| 15 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-3.49 |
| 17 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.77 |
| 21 |
USF Bulls
|
3.70 |
| 22 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.94 |
| 23 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
2.24 |
| 24 |
Missouri Tigers
|
-0.13 |
| 25 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Virginia Cavaliers
|
2.76 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
3.09 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
1.98 |
Memphis Tigers
|
0.49 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
0.00 |
Total Score: 53.75