Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Nov. 2, 2025, 10:14 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 11 notes: Navy losing unleashes the big Deservedness bubble - a lot of 2-loss teams grading better than Navy are now able to be ranked ahead of Navy. Methodology: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P5 teams play 6 fewer P5 games than a G5 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); G5 teams play 10 fewer P5 teams than a P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty); or G5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another G5 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/10/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P5 game played difference in that scenario.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
+0. Would be the #1 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #8 Virginia/#9 Louisville in the Rose Bowl |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
+0. Would be the #2 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #7 Ole Miss/#10 Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl |
| 3 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
+0. Would be the #3 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #6 Oregon/#11 BYU in the Sugar Bowl |
| 4 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
+1. Would be the #4 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #5 Georgia/#12 Memphis in the Cotton Bowl |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
+1. Would be the #5 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #12 Memphis in the first round |
| 6 |
Oregon Ducks
|
-2. Drop due to wins depreciating. Would be the #6 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #11 BYU in the first round |
| 7 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
+0. Would be the #7 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #10 Texas Tech in the first round |
| 8 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
+0. Would be the #8 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #9 Louisville in the first round |
| 9 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
+1. Would be the #9 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Virginia in the first round |
| 10 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
+2. Would be the #10 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #7 Ole Miss in the first round |
| 11 |
BYU Cougars
|
+4. Would be the #11 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Oregon in the first round |
| 12 |
Utah Utes
|
NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy |
| 13 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-2 |
| 14 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
+11. Only reason for drastic climb is Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy |
| 15 |
USC Trojans
|
NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy |
| 16 |
Texas Longhorns
|
NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy |
| 17 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy |
| 18 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
-9 |
| 19 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy |
| 20 |
Missouri Tigers
|
NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy |
| 21 |
Washington Huskies
|
NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy |
| 22 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy |
| 23 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
-6. Only reason for drastic drop is Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy |
| 24 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
-11 |
| 25 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
NEW. Memphis would be the #12 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Oregon in the first round. Next five: Georgia Tech, Houston, Memphis, JMU, Tulane |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.01 |
| 6 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
0.49 |
| 9 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.34 |
| 10 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
BYU Cougars
|
-0.90 |
| 12 |
Utah Utes
|
0.21 |
| 13 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.51 |
| 14 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
USC Trojans
|
0.48 |
| 16 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.34 |
| 22 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
2.16 |
| 24 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
1.98 |
Memphis Tigers
|
0.49 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
0.00 |
Total Score: 7.90