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MADBuc49 Ballot for 2025 Week 11

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 2, 2025, 10:14 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Week 11 notes: Navy losing unleashes the big Deservedness bubble - a lot of 2-loss teams grading better than Navy are now able to be ranked ahead of Navy. Methodology: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P5 teams play 6 fewer P5 games than a G5 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); G5 teams play 10 fewer P5 teams than a P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty); or G5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another G5 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/10/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P5 game played difference in that scenario.

Rank Team Reason
1 Indiana Hoosiers +0. Would be the #1 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #8 Virginia/#9 Louisville in the Rose Bowl
2 Ohio State Buckeyes +0. Would be the #2 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #7 Ole Miss/#10 Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl
3 Texas A&M Aggies +0. Would be the #3 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #6 Oregon/#11 BYU in the Sugar Bowl
4 Alabama Crimson Tide +1. Would be the #4 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #5 Georgia/#12 Memphis in the Cotton Bowl
5 Georgia Bulldogs +1. Would be the #5 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #12 Memphis in the first round
6 Oregon Ducks -2. Drop due to wins depreciating. Would be the #6 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #11 BYU in the first round
7 Ole Miss Rebels +0. Would be the #7 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #10 Texas Tech in the first round
8 Virginia Cavaliers +0. Would be the #8 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #9 Louisville in the first round
9 Louisville Cardinals +1. Would be the #9 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Virginia in the first round
10 Texas Tech Red Raiders +2. Would be the #10 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #7 Ole Miss in the first round
11 BYU Cougars +4. Would be the #11 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Oregon in the first round
12 Utah Utes NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy
13 Miami Hurricanes -2
14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish +11. Only reason for drastic climb is Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy
15 USC Trojans NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy
16 Texas Longhorns NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy
17 Oklahoma Sooners NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy
18 Vanderbilt Commodores -9
19 Michigan Wolverines NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy
20 Missouri Tigers NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy
21 Washington Huskies NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy
22 Iowa Hawkeyes NEW. Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy
23 TCU Horned Frogs -6. Only reason for drastic drop is Navy losing -> 2-loss teams grading better than Navy able to be ranked ahead of Navy
24 Cincinnati Bearcats -11
25 Pittsburgh Panthers NEW. Memphis would be the #12 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Oregon in the first round. Next five: Georgia Tech, Houston, Memphis, JMU, Tulane

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