Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Sept. 29, 2025, 7:17 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). The only manual replacements I made were removing USC and TCU for Iowa and Florida State (the first teams out).
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
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+7, having watched the Iowa game I don't agree with this but I'll leave it for now. They are a good team. |
2 |
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-1 |
3 |
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+1 |
4 |
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-1 |
5 |
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+4 |
6 |
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no change |
7 |
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+1 |
8 |
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+2 |
9 |
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-5 |
10 |
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-9 |
11 |
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+1 |
12 |
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+1 |
13 |
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+2 |
14 |
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-3 |
15 |
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-1 |
16 |
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no change |
17 |
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+2, still think they're underrated by the model |
18 |
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+6 |
19 |
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+5 |
20 |
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+19 |
21 |
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+4 |
22 |
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+7 |
23 |
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-3 |
24 |
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-5, a bit unfair as a healthy Gronowski might've beaten Indiana. This is the best Iowa offense in probably a decade, even though the defense has regressed a bit. |
25 |
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+1 |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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1.01 |
2 |
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0.00 |
3 |
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0.00 |
4 |
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0.00 |
5 |
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0.93 |
6 |
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0.00 |
7 |
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1.91 |
8 |
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3.71 |
9 |
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0.51 |
10 |
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0.00 |
11 |
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0.05 |
12 |
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1.29 |
13 |
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0.00 |
14 |
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0.00 |
15 |
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-1.32 |
16 |
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0.00 |
17 |
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-2.35 |
18 |
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0.41 |
19 |
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0.00 |
20 |
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0.02 |
21 |
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4.25 |
22 |
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2.23 |
23 |
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2.09 |
24 |
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1.23 |
25 |
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-0.64 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
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2.50 |
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1.38 |
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1.02 |
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0.36 |
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0.08 |
Total Score: 29.29