Nath0leon Ballot for 2025 Week 6
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 29, 2025, 10:48 a.m.
Overall Rationale: This week, 65% is predictive (based on ESPN’s FPI) and 35% is resume (based on homemade Quality Score metric). Quality Score factors in opposing team FPI, scoring margin, adjusted margin (from Bill Connelly’s post-game win expectancy), and location, with bonus points for winning. Because nearly 2/3 is still predictive, many teams are included because of their high FPI
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
|
| 2 |
Oregon Ducks
|
|
| 3 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
|
| 4 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
|
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
I know H2H should switch UGA and Bama, but this approach is more holistic. |
| 6 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
Despite the win over UGA, resume is relatively weak. Still boosted by strong FPI |
| 7 |
Texas Longhorns
|
Boosted by strong FPI |
| 8 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
Boosted by strong FPI |
| 9 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
One of the best resumes so far |
| 10 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
|
| 11 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
|
| 12 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
|
| 13 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
Strong resume, held down by relatively low FPI |
| 14 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
|
| 15 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
|
| 16 |
USC Trojans
|
Illinois loss wasn’t awful, boosted by strong FPI |
| 17 |
Missouri Tigers
|
|
| 18 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
|
| 19 |
BYU Cougars
|
|
| 20 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
|
| 21 |
LSU Tigers
|
|
| 22 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
|
| 23 |
Utah Utes
|
|
| 24 |
Auburn Tigers
|
|
| 25 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.30 |
| 4 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.36 |
| 6 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.71 |
| 7 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.71 |
| 8 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
3.71 |
| 9 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-1.29 |
| 11 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
-0.48 |
| 13 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.05 |
| 15 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
USC Trojans
|
4.01 |
| 17 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
3.09 |
| 23 |
Utah Utes
|
1.31 |
| 24 |
Auburn Tigers
|
1.15 |
| 25 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
0.03 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Iowa State Cyclones
|
2.50 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
1.38 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.36 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.11 |
Memphis Tigers
|
0.03 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
0.08 |
Total Score: 22.67