Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Sept. 28, 2025, 4:52 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 6 notes: dramatic shake-ups in the 10-25 range. Methodology: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P5 teams play 6 fewer P5 games than a G5 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); G5 teams play 10 fewer P5 teams than a P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty); or G5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another G5 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/10/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P5 game played difference in that scenario.
Rank | Team | Reason |
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1 |
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+0. Would be the #1 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #8 Iowa State/#9 Texas in the Rose Bowl |
2 |
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+0. Would be the #2 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #7 Ole Miss/#10 Michigan in the Orange Bowl |
3 |
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+3. Would be the #3 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #6 Oklahoma/#11 Texas A&M in the Sugar Bowl |
4 |
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+0. Would be the #4 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #5 Indiana/#12 Tulane in the Cotton Bowl |
5 |
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+0. Would be the #5 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #12 Tulane in the first round |
6 |
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+1. Would be the #6 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #11 Texas A&M in the first round |
7 |
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+4. Would be the #7 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #10 Michigan in the first round |
8 |
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+4. Would be the #8 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #9 Texas in the first round |
9 |
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+7. Would be the #9 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Iowa State in the first round |
10 |
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+7. Would be the #10 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #7 Ole Miss in the first round |
11 |
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-1. Would be the #11 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Oklahoma in the first round |
12 |
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+7 |
13 |
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+0 |
14 |
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-5 |
15 |
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+5 |
16 |
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NEW |
17 |
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-9 |
18 |
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-4 |
19 |
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-16 |
20 |
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-5 |
21 |
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NEW |
22 |
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NEW |
23 |
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+0 |
24 |
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+1 |
25 |
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NEW. Tulane be the #12 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #5 Indiana in the first round |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.00 |
2 |
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0.00 |
3 |
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0.00 |
4 |
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0.81 |
5 |
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0.00 |
6 |
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0.00 |
7 |
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-0.05 |
8 |
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0.06 |
9 |
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0.38 |
10 |
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1.78 |
11 |
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-0.20 |
12 |
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0.00 |
13 |
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0.00 |
14 |
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0.04 |
15 |
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-0.26 |
16 |
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1.61 |
17 |
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0.00 |
18 |
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-0.36 |
19 |
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-0.14 |
20 |
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-0.05 |
21 |
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1.59 |
22 |
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0.00 |
23 |
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-1.04 |
24 |
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0.00 |
25 |
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-0.07 |