/r/CFB Poll

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	2.003 [11.0-1.0]
2	Oregon Ducks	1.859 [10.8-1.2]
3	Ole Miss Rebels	1.847 [10.5-1.5]
4	Indiana Hoosiers	1.815 [10.8-1.2]
5	Alabama Crimson Tide	1.652 [9.1-2.9]
6	Oklahoma Sooners	1.511 [8.2-3.8]
7	Georgia Bulldogs	1.484 [8.9-3.1]
8	Miami Hurricanes	1.478 [10.5-1.5]
9	Texas Longhorns	1.462 [8.6-3.4]
10	Texas A&M Aggies	1.438 [9.0-3.0]
11	Vanderbilt Commodores	1.375 [8.5-3.5]
12	Missouri Tigers	1.373 [8.6-3.4]
13	Tennessee Volunteers	1.372 [8.9-3.1]
14	LSU Tigers	1.358 [8.2-3.8]
15	BYU Cougars	1.221 [9.6-2.4]
16	Michigan Wolverines	1.211 [8.7-3.3]
17	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	1.204 [9.4-2.6]
18	Penn State Nittany Lions	1.149 [8.5-3.5]
19	Iowa State Cyclones	1.078 [9.2-2.8]
20	Washington Huskies	1.036 [8.3-3.7]
21	Texas Tech Red Raiders	1.030 [9.5-2.5]
22	Illinois Fighting Illini	1.013 [8.2-3.8]
23	USC Trojans	0.996 [8.2-3.8]
24	Auburn Tigers	0.950 [6.7-5.3]
25	Louisville Cardinals	0.896 [9.5-2.5]

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
2	Oregon Ducks	0.00
3	Ole Miss Rebels	0.11
4	Indiana Hoosiers	0.00
5	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.93
6	Oklahoma Sooners	0.00
7	Georgia Bulldogs	0.94
8	Miami Hurricanes	-0.56
9	Texas Longhorns	0.38
10	Texas A&M Aggies	0.00
11	Vanderbilt Commodores	0.00
12	Missouri Tigers	0.00
13	Tennessee Volunteers	0.31
14	LSU Tigers	0.04
15	BYU Cougars	0.17
16	Michigan Wolverines	0.31
17	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	1.12
18	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
19	Iowa State Cyclones	-0.92
20	Washington Huskies	5.19
21	Texas Tech Red Raiders	-1.60
22	Illinois Fighting Illini	0.00
23	USC Trojans	0.22
24	Auburn Tigers	1.15
25	Louisville Cardinals	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	1.38
Florida State Seminoles	0.86
Memphis Tigers	0.03
Virginia Cavaliers	0.08

Total Score: 16.29

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