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quantum_jedi Ballot for 2025 Preseason

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Aug. 18, 2025, 8:25 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Wins and losses are weighted by the difference in "rank" between the winner/loser and the median team. Scaled such that beating strong teams matters more than beating weak teams, and losing to bad teams is worse than losing to strong teams. Winning is weighted slightly more than losing. Results are scaled by offensive and defensive points per drive efficiencies, and strength of schedule determined by opponents score normalized throughout the season. Preseason rankings are weighted by returning production, talent composite, and previous season(s)' success. Next five out: Missouri, Georgia Tech, Michigan, Florida, NC State.

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks A lot of turnover for starting spots, but immensely talented roster with a proven coach. Will this be Oregon's year?
2 Penn State Nittany Lions Can any wide receivers step for the Nittany Lions up this year? If so, Penn State might finally breakthrough when it matters most.
3 Georgia Bulldogs After a "down" year, Georgia looks as good as ever. Elite coach, talent everywhere. They just need to find some kind of consistency on offense.
4 Clemson Tigers Dabo seems to have finally adapted to the changes to the sport over the last few years. Is this the year Clemson returns to the top?
5 Texas Longhorns What a job Sark has done not only stabilizing the Longhorns, but turning them into a year-over-year elite team. If Arch lives up to the hype then this team is going to be hard to beat.
6 Ohio State Buckeyes Can the Buckeyes defend their title? History says probably not, but elite talent everywhere and returning experience are hard to beat. If Matt Patricia can field a decent defense then look for the Buckeyes to again be near the top.
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Coming off a National Title appearance, Notre Dame looks poised to return. Jeremiah Love might be the best back in CFB and Marcus Freeman has shown an incredible knack to will his team to be their best despite injuries and adversity (except against MAC and Sun Belt teams it seems...).
8 Alabama Crimson Tide Year 2 for Kalen DeBoer has yet to disappoint at the FBS level, can the magic continue this year with the Crimson Tide?
9 Arizona State Sun Devils What an incredible job Kenny Dillingham has done turning around the Sun Devils. Is #9 absurdly high? Certainly yes, but their recent success and returning production poise ASU for another big year. If they can minimize the loss of Cam Skattebo remains to be seen...
10 SMU Mustangs What a job Rhett Lashlee has done at SMU. The Mustangs look to have another strong team, led by the impressive Kevin Jennings.
11 LSU Tigers Last year was somewhat mixed for LSU. They have a talented, high-potential QB and elite athletes everywhere. Can the Tigers reach their potential?
12 South Carolina Gamecocks South Carolina looked to figure something out in the back half of last season. Will LaNorris Sellers and the Gamecocks keep that momentum going and make it to the playoff?
13 Texas A&M Aggies Despite coming off another 8-4 regular season record, this A&M team just feels on the brink of breaking through. Maybe I'm drinking the Aggie Kool-Aid but I won't be surprised if this team excels.
14 BYU Cougars BYU just missed out on a playoff spot last year and should be highly competitive again in the Big12. How will the team respond to losing Retzlaff? We will see.
15 Iowa State Cyclones ISU loses two elite wide receivers, but returns a solid team all-around. Matt Campbell is already the best coach in Cyclone history, can he take it to another level?
16 Miami Hurricanes Miami let a playoff berth slip through their fingers last year. The Canes return a talented team and bring in Carson Beck to lead them. The top of the ACC looks tough, but Miami has all the tools to finally get that ACC Championship.
17 Tennessee Volunteers No Nico, and Aguilar might be boom or bust, but Josh Heupel seems to have the Volunteers rolling. Can they be more than paper tigers this year?
18 Indiana Hoosiers The fact that a potential step back to finishing 8-4ish is being considered as a "down year" for the Hoosiers is insane. Curt Cignetti immediately turned out Indiana's greatest season ever. It's unlikely they repeat that success this year, but expect Indiana to once again be a competent and well-coached team.
19 Baylor Bears Dave Aranda finally seems to have molded the Bears to his likeness. Smart and well-coached, expect Baylor to be deep among the fracas at the top of the Big12 this year.
20 Ole Miss Rebels I'm really not sure what to make of Ole Miss this year. A talented team, but so many short-term players coming in from the portal every year make it hard to know what to expect from the Rebels.
21 TCU Horned Frogs I think TCU is going to surprise a lot of people this year. After a solid year, the Horned Frogs seemed poised for another playoff run. The Big12 is very deep though and any one of these teams could make that jump.
22 Texas Tech Red Raiders We're going to find out if a few uber-wealthy donors can personally fund a championship team. Everyone is rightfully excited about what the Red Raiders might be, let's see if they can put it all together this year.
23 Kansas State Wildcats A somewhat disappointing year for the Wildcats last season, but Chris Klieman is a tremendous coach. The Big12 is going to be a lot of fun.
24 Louisville Cardinals Coming off a solid year, Louisville seems ready to take the next step towards the top of the ACC. Jeff Brohm has shown an innate ability to maximize his teams well beyond their apparent "talent" level. Don't be surprised if Louisville is playing for an ACC Championship this season.
25 Illinois Fighting Illini I think this is unfairly low for the Illini, but the model does not like the overall dearth of stars. They return an excellent QB and are coming off a great season. They likely lack the top end talent to compete with the upper echelon of the B1G, but expect Illinois to be a tough out for anyone and have to another great season.

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