NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2025 Preseason
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Aug. 15, 2025, 10:20 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. WHAT'S NEW: Re-tuned the Kalman filter parameters to have greater confidence in predictions. (process noise intensity: 1.0 point^2/week, measurement noise standard deviation: 14.0 points)
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1.515 (10.4-1.6) |
| 2 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.326 (10.5-1.5) |
| 3 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.216 (9.7-2.3) |
| 4 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.181 (9.3-2.7) |
| 5 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
1.171 (9.5-2.5) |
| 6 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.148 (9.2-2.8) |
| 7 |
Oregon Ducks
|
1.144 (9.3-2.7) |
| 8 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.124 (8.8-3.2) |
| 9 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.047 (9.3-2.7) |
| 10 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1.000 (9.5-2.5) |
| 11 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.852 (8.9-3.1) |
| 12 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
0.829 (7.5-4.5) |
| 13 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.813 (7.6-4.4) |
| 14 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.775 (8.7-3.3) |
| 15 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.767 (8.3-3.7) |
| 16 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.743 (8.6-3.4) |
| 17 |
Florida Gators
|
0.736 (6.9-5.1) |
| 18 |
USC Trojans
|
0.735 (8.0-4.0) |
| 19 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.687 (7.1-4.9) |
| 20 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.686 (8.1-3.9) |
| 21 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.664 (7.6-4.4) |
| 22 |
Arizona State Sun Devils
|
0.661 (8.4-3.6) |
| 23 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.655 (6.3-5.7) |
| 24 |
Minnesota Golden Gophers
|
0.644 (8.0-4.0) |
| 25 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.635 (7.0-5.0) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.69 |
| 3 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
2.22 |
| 4 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
-0.54 |
| 6 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.02 |
| 7 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-0.47 |
| 9 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.21 |
| 10 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1.02 |
| 11 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.41 |
| 12 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
2.10 |
| 15 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Florida Gators
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
USC Trojans
|
2.49 |
| 19 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Clemson Tigers
|
-2.44 |
| 21 |
Missouri Tigers
|
1.29 |
| 22 |
Arizona State Sun Devils
|
-0.91 |
| 23 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
Minnesota Golden Gophers
|
1.17 |
| 25 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
1.35 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
1.17 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.50 |
Boise State Broncos
|
0.20 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.28 |
Total Score: 20.47