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Charlemagne42 Ballot for 2025 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 13, 2025, 9:41 a.m.

Overall Rationale: As usual, my preseason ballot and my first few weeks of the season will all be 100% all-natural vegetable-free human input. My computer considers only data from the current season, in order to make the fairest judgment of all teams as they are this season. No lingering expectations based on injured quarterback(s) keeping Florida down, no lingering expectations of Arch surpassing Peyton and Eli floating Texas *up*. As the computer model gathers data, I will start replacing my input with its input gradually, transitioning through "cyborg" mode for a few more weeks until the Singularity occurs and the computer is completely in charge. This year I'm hoping to have enough time to upgrade my automated data ingestion. I've been using CFBD for CSVs, but over the summer I finally experimented with the API and will be further experimenting with CFBD's in-season endpoints. Shoutout to u/BlueSCar for running the best-in-class CFB API. Lastly, as usual my preseason ballot is aimed at predicting the *end* of the season. It will include some takes that look silly in retrospect, and some takes that look silly contemporaneously. Hopefully it also includes some takes that look prescient. You just never know!

Rank Team Reason
1 LSU Tigers By the middle of conference play LSU will start to feel inevitable. By December we will all be focused on the teams further down, guessing who will have a chance to lose to LSU.
2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Another natty appearance for Notre Dame, another infuriating way to lose. This time to the team that hired away Brian Kelly so they wouldn't have to fire him. Ouch. Too bad Notre Dame is cursed to never play like a champion again, until they admit they stole our sign.
3 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State is allergic to winning big games. Lucky for Penn State, they won't have any of those on their schedule until elimination season. Penn State will lose the conference championship (their first big game), but will white out a home playoff game against a sorely overrated SEC team, then fizzle in the quarters. Somehow they'll still be ranked #3.
4 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia's defense should be much improved, and they'll ride it all the way to the SEC championship game. But their offense will not match the defense's energy, and the best Georgia will do is a semifinal appearance.
5 Louisville Cardinals Poised to shock the world? Coming off a 9-4 season that featured a P2 bowl win, three 7-point losses to ranked teams ~~and a silly upset loss to Stanford~~, *and* taking down the perennial conference bully, Louisville returns an impressive amount of that team's production. They'll use it to pull off a conference championship and a playoff foray, and by the time it happens nobody will be surprised.
6 Oklahoma Sooners Ohio State proved that you can still win a title without a team of transfers. Oklahoma won't win a title, but their offense loaded with star transfers will put that principle to the test. Meanwhile, a top-10 defense is expected to improve. The schedule, however, will drag Oklahoma back to earth. They'll score one of the last playoff spots, then prove they belonged by rattling off two wins in a row. And then run into LSU.
7 Ohio State Buckeyes Repeating is hard. Really hard. Just ask Nick. The NFL supped heartily on the bounty the Buckeyes laid out from last year's team. What remains in Columbus are questions. I still have Ohio State this high because I think the program is fully capable of answering questions. They're just not in title-winning condition this time.
8 Alabama Crimson Tide Winning in the SEC is hard. Really hard. Just ask Nick. In fact while Alabama is #8 on this list, they're #4 in their own conference. 10-2 and a playoff appearance isn't bad at all. But it'll barely be enough for DeBoer to hold onto his job. He'll be the prime target of hot seat whispers next summer, especially if recruiting falters.
9 Michigan Wolverines Michigan will face early questions after an early loss out of conference. But, by the time the CFP committee looks, they will have redeemed themselves and that loss won't look so bad after all.
10 Iowa State Cyclones Locked out of the playoff after being blown out in the conference title game, Iowa State brings back basically the entire same team for a redemption tour. This time they'll make it. And then lose in the first round because conference champs don't get a bye anymore.
11 North Carolina Tar Heels UNC will reach the ACC title game not because they are good at football, but because everyone else they play is worse. They miss every ACC team I have ranked, they miss Notre Dame, and both of their Big 12 opponents are expected to be awful as well. With ten power opponents and an 11-win record, UNC will look like a shoe-in for the playoffs, until Louisville knocks their socks off. In a playoff controversy, they'll be left out in favor of more SEC and Big Ten teams who didn't play in their conference championships, leaving the ACC with just one bid (two if you count Notre Dame, which you should).
12 Florida Gators DJ Lagway stays healthy. That fact turns Florida's entire season into a magical miracle year. Despite the second-hardest schedule in CFB, they emerge 10-2 but out of the running for the conference title. The committee controversially puts them in over North Carolina on strength of schedule. Florida loses in the first round, making internet arguments even worse.
13 South Carolina Gamecocks The Gamecocks face mostly really good teams and really bad teams. Five of their opponents will be ranked by the end of the season, six more never stood a chance. Only one is middling, and that's their Palmetto Bowl nemesis. The Cocks will be the second team blue-balled by the playoffs, after Carolina.
14 Oregon Ducks It turns out Dillon Gabriel is really good at football. Oregon sorely misses his command of the offense, and also misses the conference championship. But in a major controversy, they are selected as the last team in the playoff, despite a resume with Penn State on it and nobody else. After being blown out in the first round though, they fall to 14 as the riotous blaze consumes Reddit.
15 Utah Utes Utah did a remarkable job this off-season of mostly retaining talent, as well as picking up players judiciously to fill holes and add depth. While there won't be any easy conference outings until Cincinnati, Utah has a team built to endure a robust schedule. However, they will frustratingly drop the conference championship to the toughest team they face all season.
16 Arizona Wildcats Arizona's schedule is extremely front-loaded. But, they catch Iowa State off a bye while ISU plays in a fourth consecutive week. And they get Kansas State at home in September, after KSU faces a grueling Army option. Once they're past those two games, the talent the Wildcats are bringing in on offense should make for smooth sailing.
17 Florida State Seminoles They did it! They actually did it! After an opening loss to Alabama, Florida State turned around and went 9-3 rather than 2-10! They miss the ACC championship on tiebreakers despite two of their losses coming out of conference. To add insult to injury, after a season-ending loss to Florida, they're invited to the Gator Bowl.
18 Kansas State Wildcats The Wildcats have a monstrous schedule. They face four ranked conference opponents, more than any other Big 12 team I have ranked. But they also bring back the bulk of a solid 2024 team. Once they get past the opening gauntlet of Farm O'geddon, triple option in September, and Arizona in September, they'll be back in business. The business of being a problem for everyone else on their schedule.
19 Texas Tech Red Raiders It's no secret that Texas Tech bought a brand new team with their freshly minted billionaire. But football isn't softball. You can't buy a single Stanford pitcher and make her throw 200 pitches a day until you get to the title game. In football you have to build a balanced roster, you need experience at many positions, and most of all you need a team that's on the same page. Texas Tech is about to find out the true meaning of "mo' money mo' problems".
20 Texas Longhorns Is this a typo? you ask. Surely there's some mistake? you add. No, there's no mistake, and don't call me Shirley. Texas lost over 20 players with starting experience from last year's roster. Sure, they retained a few highly competent defensive players, and their presumptive starting QB has the most famous name in football. But between an offensive line with multiple season-ending camp injuries, a defensive front with multiple question marks, and a secondary that straight up doesn't have enough dudes to keep up with a diverse offense, Texas is in trouble. Their saving grace is how atrocious their schedule is. I only have four teams on their schedule ahead of them. The two I have ranked behind them, I'm anticipating will be ranked *because* they beat Texas. And yet, even though they'll finish 7-5, it's Texas. They'll still be ranked in the 20s and will come up constantly in playoff conversations.
21 Tennessee Volunteers Tennessee could be a perfectly average team this season and still go 8-4. And be ranked behind 7-5 Texas because despite Tennessee's best efforts, they are not the biggest brand to wear orange and white and claim the title of UT. Actually, I think that's exactly what Tennessee will do.
22 Wisconsin Badgers Wisconsin is trying out this whole transfer portal thing. But, their schedule is a "who's who" of pre-season hype. No less than six teams are AP ranked, all of them 20 or higher. Even so, I think the AP gets a lot wrong pre-season, and Wisconsin will shake out to enough convincing wins that they crack the final ranking. Also, somebody has to be ranked to make Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan and Alabama look better. Why not Wisconsin?
23 Vanderbilt Commodores Vandy faces five teams ranked ahead of them. Four of those games are on the road. Diego doesn't care.
24 West Virginia Mountaineers Between the returning production, the portal class, and the light schedule, West Virginia has all the ingredients to put together a respectable season.
25 Texas A&M Aggies Dread it. Run from it. Texas 8&4 arrives all the same. The only question is, when do those four losses happen? Are they 8-2 in November and cursed to inexplicably lose to Samford? Do they lose to every team ranked above them until they reach four losses, then drag Texas down with them? The only way to find out is to board the Furk rollercoaster.

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