Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Jan. 20, 2025, 10:58 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Oregon Ducks	3.516 (13-1)
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	3.262 (14-2)
3	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	2.658 (14-2)
4	Penn State Nittany Lions	2.543 (13-3)
5	Indiana Hoosiers	2.310 (11-2)
6	Texas Longhorns	2.105 (13-3)
7	Georgia Bulldogs	2.044 (11-3)
8	Boise State Broncos	1.948 (12-2)
9	Illinois Fighting Illini	1.897 (10-3)
10	Michigan Wolverines	1.749 (8-5)
11	Tennessee Volunteers	1.589 (10-3)
12	BYU Cougars	1.496 (11-2)
13	Alabama Crimson Tide	1.455 (9-4)
14	South Carolina Gamecocks	1.420 (9-4)
15	SMU Mustangs	1.418 (11-3)
16	Ole Miss Rebels	1.391 (10-3)
17	LSU Tigers	1.367 (9-4)
18	Arizona State Sun Devils	1.340 (11-3)
19	Missouri Tigers	1.296 (10-3)
20	Iowa State Cyclones	1.273 (11-3)
21	Clemson Tigers	1.220 (10-4)
22	Florida Gators	1.191 (8-5)
23	Texas A&M Aggies	1.172 (8-5)
24	USC Trojans	1.151 (7-6)
25	Miami Hurricanes	1.140 (10-3)

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Oregon Ducks	0.87
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	-0.23
3	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
4	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
5	Indiana Hoosiers	0.99
6	Texas Longhorns	-0.21
7	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
8	Boise State Broncos	0.00
9	Illinois Fighting Illini	1.65
10	Michigan Wolverines	4.70
11	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
12	BYU Cougars	0.00
13	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.66
14	South Carolina Gamecocks	0.62
15	SMU Mustangs	-0.55
16	Ole Miss Rebels	-0.25
17	LSU Tigers	2.92
18	Arizona State Sun Devils	-2.61
19	Missouri Tigers	0.48
20	Iowa State Cyclones	-1.00
21	Clemson Tigers	-0.82
22	Florida Gators	2.83
23	Texas A&M Aggies	1.93
24	USC Trojans	1.11
25	Miami Hurricanes	-1.60

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Syracuse Orange	1.11
Army West Point	0.70
UNLV Rebels	0.50
Memphis Tigers	0.33

Total Score: 28.70