Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Oct. 21, 2024, 11:39 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Notes for this week: Louisville, Michigan dropped out.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
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no change |
2 |
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+1 |
3 |
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+1 |
4 |
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+3 |
5 |
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-3 |
6 |
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+3 |
7 |
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-1 |
8 |
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-3 |
9 |
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-1, probably should've dropped more but I'll leave them for now until another team becomes dominant enough to override the model's top 10 |
10 |
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no change |
11 |
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+8 |
12 |
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-1 |
13 |
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+3 |
14 |
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-1, you can definitely argue that they're undefeated and should be in the top 10, but honestly they haven't looked that good. They're this year's Florida State imo - every week they almost lose and somehow pull away with a win against a bad team. |
15 |
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-1 |
16 |
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+14 |
17 |
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+8 |
18 |
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+1 |
19 |
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-5, I might've forgotten that they almost lost but the model didn't! |
20 |
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+8 but manually moved down below BYU because they definitely don't deserve 16th |
21 |
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-5, why are you still here |
22 |
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-1 |
23 |
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-5 |
24 |
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-2 |
25 |
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+8, Manually added instead of USC because USC has 4 losses |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.41 |
2 |
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0.00 |
3 |
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0.00 |
4 |
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0.85 |
5 |
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0.00 |
6 |
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1.02 |
7 |
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-0.30 |
8 |
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0.17 |
9 |
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1.02 |
10 |
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1.95 |
11 |
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0.00 |
12 |
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0.00 |
13 |
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0.00 |
14 |
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-2.05 |
15 |
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-1.04 |
16 |
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0.00 |
17 |
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0.00 |
18 |
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0.28 |
19 |
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-1.78 |
20 |
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5.10 |
21 |
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4.24 |
22 |
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0.00 |
23 |
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-0.62 |
24 |
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1.25 |
25 |
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0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
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1.17 |
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1.03 |
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0.39 |
Total Score: 24.67