Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Oct. 21, 2024, 11:39 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Notes for this week: Louisville, Michigan dropped out.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
no change |
| 2 |
Oregon Ducks
|
+1 |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
+1 |
| 4 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
+3 |
| 5 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-3 |
| 6 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
+3 |
| 7 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
-1 |
| 8 |
Clemson Tigers
|
-3 |
| 9 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
-1, probably should've dropped more but I'll leave them for now until another team becomes dominant enough to override the model's top 10 |
| 10 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
no change |
| 11 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
+8 |
| 12 |
LSU Tigers
|
-1 |
| 13 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
+3 |
| 14 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-1, you can definitely argue that they're undefeated and should be in the top 10, but honestly they haven't looked that good. They're this year's Florida State imo - every week they almost lose and somehow pull away with a win against a bad team. |
| 15 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
-1 |
| 16 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
+14 |
| 17 |
SMU Mustangs
|
+8 |
| 18 |
Missouri Tigers
|
+1 |
| 19 |
BYU Cougars
|
-5, I might've forgotten that they almost lost but the model didn't! |
| 20 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
+8 but manually moved down below BYU because they definitely don't deserve 16th |
| 21 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
-5, why are you still here |
| 22 |
Army West Point
|
-1 |
| 23 |
Boise State Broncos
|
-5 |
| 24 |
Washington Huskies
|
-2 |
| 25 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
+8, Manually added instead of USC because USC has 4 losses |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.41 |
| 2 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.85 |
| 5 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.02 |
| 7 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
-0.30 |
| 8 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.17 |
| 9 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.02 |
| 10 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.95 |
| 11 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-2.05 |
| 15 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
-1.04 |
| 16 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.28 |
| 19 |
BYU Cougars
|
-1.78 |
| 20 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
5.10 |
| 21 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
4.24 |
| 22 |
Army West Point
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Boise State Broncos
|
-0.62 |
| 24 |
Washington Huskies
|
1.25 |
| 25 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
1.17 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
1.03 |
Navy Midshipmen
|
0.39 |
Total Score: 24.67