Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Oct. 21, 2024, 11:39 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Notes for this week: Louisville, Michigan dropped out.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | no change |
2 | Oregon Ducks | +1 |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | +1 |
4 | Tennessee Volunteers | +3 |
5 | Texas Longhorns | -3 |
6 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | +3 |
7 | Penn State Nittany Lions | -1 |
8 | Clemson Tigers | -3 |
9 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -1, probably should've dropped more but I'll leave them for now until another team becomes dominant enough to override the model's top 10 |
10 | Ole Miss Rebels | no change |
11 | Indiana Hoosiers | +8 |
12 | LSU Tigers | -1 |
13 | Texas A&M Aggies | +3 |
14 | Miami Hurricanes | -1, you can definitely argue that they're undefeated and should be in the top 10, but honestly they haven't looked that good. They're this year's Florida State imo - every week they almost lose and somehow pull away with a win against a bad team. |
15 | Iowa State Cyclones | -1 |
16 | Kansas State Wildcats | +14 |
17 | SMU Mustangs | +8 |
18 | Missouri Tigers | +1 |
19 | BYU Cougars | -5, I might've forgotten that they almost lost but the model didn't! |
20 | Wisconsin Badgers | +8 but manually moved down below BYU because they definitely don't deserve 16th |
21 | Tulane Green Wave | -5, why are you still here |
22 | Army West Point | -1 |
23 | Boise State Broncos | -5 |
24 | Washington Huskies | -2 |
25 | South Carolina Gamecocks | +8, Manually added instead of USC because USC has 4 losses |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.41 |
2 | Oregon Ducks | 0.00 |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
4 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.85 |
5 | Texas Longhorns | 0.00 |
6 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 1.02 |
7 | Penn State Nittany Lions | -0.30 |
8 | Clemson Tigers | 0.17 |
9 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1.02 |
10 | Ole Miss Rebels | 1.95 |
11 | Indiana Hoosiers | 0.00 |
12 | LSU Tigers | 0.00 |
13 | Texas A&M Aggies | 0.00 |
14 | Miami Hurricanes | -2.05 |
15 | Iowa State Cyclones | -1.04 |
16 | Kansas State Wildcats | 0.00 |
17 | SMU Mustangs | 0.00 |
18 | Missouri Tigers | 0.28 |
19 | BYU Cougars | -1.78 |
20 | Wisconsin Badgers | 5.10 |
21 | Tulane Green Wave | 4.24 |
22 | Army West Point | 0.00 |
23 | Boise State Broncos | -0.62 |
24 | Washington Huskies | 1.25 |
25 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Pittsburgh Panthers | 1.17 |
Illinois Fighting Illini | 1.03 |
Navy Midshipmen | 0.39 |
Total Score: 24.67