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70stang Ballot for 2024 Week 9

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Oct. 21, 2024, 6:43 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Welcome back to the Report Card Poll! THIS IS NOT A PREDICTIVE POLL. The key tenet of this poll is that pre-season polls are bullshit, and poll inertia is extremely bullshit. I endeavor to eliminate as much poll inertia as possible. This poll is entirely resume based. It is not intended to be predictive in any way. We're here to generate a Report Card. What have you accomplished on the field so far this season against your schedule, and how hard are you scheduling? That's the only question that matters. The result is generated almost entirely algorithmically. I reserve human input strictly for scenarios where things like head-to-head may be important. All P5 teams are equal, all G5 teams are equal, and all FCS teams are equal to start the season. This is a black box methodology. WEEKLY NOTES: Receiving votes: Navy (6-0), ULM (5-1), Liberty (5-0). There are 20 teams with 1 loss this week, so while the bubble has shrunk from last week's 26 teams, this is still a large enough group that no 2-loss team made the poll. After this week's results, there are 18 teams with 2 losses. Now we're starting to see some real stratification, and next week should flip things in favor of having more 2-loss teams than 1-loss teams. I'd like to take a second and talk about the last tier which contains the "G5 Hopefuls" for lack of a better category name. Previously, this was only undefeated G5s. We are at a point in the season that 1-loss teams who have played a much tougher schedule to date, like Boise (who even has a ranked win) and ULM (with only a single loss to Texas) are being lumped in with the unbeaten G5s and evaluated from there. Eagle-eyed viewers will note UNLV being ranked significantly above the G5 tier, on their own merits with 3 P5 wins in their belt and a single OT loss. We get the UNLV - Boise matchup this week, which to me is basically the G5 play-in game for the playoff unless something whacky happens.

Rank Team Reason
1 BYU Cougars TIER 1 - Undefeated Teams with 5 P5 Wins BYU tops this tier, at 7-0 with 5 P5 wins including ranked wins against last week's #13 Kansas State and #19 SMU, as well as 1 G5 win and 1 FCS win. With two ranked wins, BYU is this week's number 1 team.
2 Oregon Ducks Oregon is 7-0 with 5 P5 wins, including three away, as well as 1 G5 win and 1 FCS win. They take this spot over Iowa State due to strength of opponents played, at 16th.
3 Iowa State Cyclones Iowa State is 7-0 with 5 P5 wins, including three away, as well as 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a strength of opponents played of 36th.
4 Penn State Nittany Lions TIER 2 - Undefeated Teams with 4 P5 Wins Penn State tops this tier at 6-0 with 4 P5 wins, including a ranked win against last week's #12 Illinois, as well as 2 G5 wins. They take this spot over Indiana despite playing one less game, because Penn State has no FCS team on the schedule and that accounts for Indiana's extra win, and the Illinois win is better than Indiana's Nebraska win.
5 Indiana Hoosiers Indiana is 7-0 with 4 P5 wins, including a ranked win against last week's #17 Nebraska, as well as 2 G5 wins and 1 FCS win.
6 Miami Hurricanes Miami is 7-0 with 4 P5 wins, including 3 away, as well as 2 G5 wins including one away, and 1 FCS win. They take this spot over Pitt due to playing more games.
7 Pittsburgh Panthers Pitt is 6-0 with 4 P5 wins, including 2 away, as well as 1 G5 win and 1 FCS win.
8 Georgia Bulldogs TIER 3 - 1 Loss Teams with 5 P5 Wins UGA tops this tier at 6-1, with 5 P5 wins including ranked wins at last week's #6 Texas and at a neutral site over #11 Clemson, as well as 1 FCS win and a loss at #15 Alabama. With two top 15 ranked wins and a loss only on the road against a ranked team, UGA is pretty clearly the best 1-loss team right now.
9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish ND is 6-1 with 5 P5 wins, including a ranked win at last week's #18 TAMU, 1 G5 win, and a home loss to G5 NIU. Winning against TAMU puts them above Clemson here, even though the home loss to NIU looks bad.
10 Clemson Tigers Clemson is 6-1 with 5 P5 wins, 1 G5 win, and a neutral site loss to last week's #9 UGA. With no ranked wins in their pocket, they're at the bottom of this tier.
11 Tennessee Volunteers TIER 4 - 1 Loss Teams with 4 P5 Wins Tennessee tops this tier at 6-1 with 4 P5 wins, including a ranked win against last week's #15 Alabama, as well as 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a loss to Arkansas. With the best ranked win of this tier, Tennessee takes the top spot.
12 Illinois Fighting Illini Illinois is 6-1 with 4 P5 wins, including a ranked win at last week's #17 Nebraska, as well as 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a loss away to last week's #3 Penn State. They are the second and also last team in this tier with a ranked win.
13 Texas A&M Aggies TAMU is 6-1 with 4 P5 wins, including two away and one neutral site, as well as 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a home loss to last week's #10 ND.
14 Kansas State Wildcats K-State is 6-1 with 4 P5 wins, including two away, as well as 1 G5 away win, 1 FCS win, and a loss away to last week's #1 BYU.
15 SMU Mustangs SMU is 6-1 with 4 P5 wins, including two away, as well as 1 G5 away win, 1 FCS win, and a home loss to last week's #1 BYU. For the record here, because K State and SMU are functionally identical down to who they lost to, this came down to strength of opponents played with K State at 19th and SMU at 34th.
16 LSU Tigers LSU is 6-1 with 4 P5 wins, including two away, as well as 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and a neutral site loss to USC.
17 Texas Longhorns TIER 5 - 1 Loss Teams with 3 P5 Wins Texas is 6-1 with 3 P5 wins including one away and one neutral, as well as 3 G5 wins and a home loss to last week's #9 UGA. They top this tier due to not playing an FCS team. (UL Monroe at 5-1 and receiving votes this week is actually their highest quality win at this point, hilariously)
18 UNLV Rebels UNLV is 6-1 with 3 P5 away wins, as well as 2 G5 wins including one away, 1 FCS win, and a home loss to Syracuse.
19 Duke Blue Devils Duke is 6-1 with 3 P5 wins including one away, 2 G5 wins including one away, 1 FCS win, and an away loss to Georgia Tech.
20 Missouri Tigers Mizzou is 6-1 with 3 P5 wins, 2 G5 wins including one away, 1 FCS win, and an away loss to last week's #18 TAMU. Mizzou has beaten no P5 teams on the road, which lands them at the bottom of this tier.
21 Washington State Cougars TIER 6 - 1 Loss Teams with 2 P5 Wins Wazzu is 6-1 with 2 P5 wins, including a ranked win against last week's #21 Texas Tech, as well as 3 G5 wins including one away, 1 FCS win, and a loss to Boise State. They're ahead of Ohio State here due to the ranked win.
22 Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State is 5-1 with 2 P5 wins, including one away, as well as 3 G5 wins and an away loss to last week's #2 Oregon.
23 Syracuse Orange Syracuse is 5-1 with 2 P5 wins, including one away, as well as 2 G5 wins including one away, 1 FCS win, and a home loss to Stanford.
24 Army West Point TIER 7 - G5 Contenders Army is 7-0 with 6 G5 wins and 1 FCS win. They're over 2 games better than Boise right now despite Boise having the better wins. This will balance out.
25 Boise State Broncos Boise is 5-1 with 1 P5 ranked win over last week's #25 Wazzu, as well as 3 G5 wins including two away, 1 FCS win, and an away loss to last week's #2 Oregon.

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